Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
Week 10 was another solid week for the DraftKings Bargain Buys with value at every position but tight end. Mark Sanchez (QB4), Justin Forsett (RB4),and Kelvin Benjamin (WR11) headlined a group that once again saw more than 60% hit value. The story changes a little bit in Week 11, with less bye weeks and more value available. The important part now is to pick the right value. The Value Play at each position is based off of the projections of David Dodds, while the Bargain Buy is my personal recommendation. You don't want a roster full of these guys, but using 1-2 of them could help you win your GPP.
Quarterback
Value Play
Derek Carr ($5100) vs. San Diego- Carr produced decent value in Week 10 and has an even better matchup in Week 11. The Chargers' 17 pass touchdowns allowed is 6th worst amongst teams that have only played 9 games and their secondary is in shambles. Carr has struggled with pressure this year, but fortunately for him San Diego doesn't get after the quarterback. This is about as safe as a quarterback can be for close to $5K.
Bargain Buy
Zach Mettenberger ($5200) vs. Pittsburgh- Mettenberger struggled a little bit against the Ravens in Week 10, but his 2 week average is still well above value at this price. The Steelers secondary can be exploited, as long as the Titans can protect their rookie quarterback. He doesn't feel quite as safe as Carr but there's likely more upside here.
Running Back
Value Play
Alfred Blue ($3000) vs. Cleveland- All reports sound like it's highly unlikely that Arian Foster plays in this one and the weather is supposed to be dreadful for Ryan Mallett's first start. The Browns defense has been improved over the last few weeks, but they're still giving up 4.7 yards per carry against a very weak schedule. If Blue sees 15 touches he's a near lock for value. With Foster out and the weather forecast what it is, 15 may be selling him short.
Bargain Buy
Theo Riddick ($3100) vs. Arizona- Riddick is another play that you'll need to check the inactives before starting. If Reggie Bush sits, Riddick becomes the pass-catching back in an offense that loves to throw the ball to its running backs. In his last three games Riddick has caught 15 passes for 154 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Lions may struggle to move the ball on the ground, so short passes could replace the running game.
Wide Receiver
Value Play
Justin Hunter ($3100) vs. Pittsburgh- Mettenberger/Hunter is the cheap stack of the week. Hunter is a lottery ticket in that when/if he hits it will be huge. In other words, he's a good GPP play if you're looking to be contrarian. The most tempting thing is that he doesn't need much production at all to hit value, and if he does what we think he can he'll win his owners a big payday.
Bargain Buy
Taylor Gabriel ($3300) vs. Houston- Gabriel put up a pedestrian 3/31 last week and you know what? At this cost that still doesn't kill you. The upside against the Texans secondary is huge, and this is the last chance Gabriel gets to prove he deserves more playing time before Josh Gordon returns. Watch the weather reports on this one, because if it's extremely cold and windy you may want to stay away.
Tight End
Value Play
Mychal Rivera ($3100) vs. San Diego- Rivera at $3100 after the way he's produced the last three weeks is just criminal. Since Week 8 Rivera has produced 21-185-3 on 28 targets. Those aren't only TE1 numbers, those are elite TE1 numbers. He may not keep up that pace, but he's still the only reliable option in this passing attack right now outside of James Jones. Rivera has shaken off his rocky start and is producing at a level much higher than he's being priced at.
Bargain Buy
Jordan Reed ($3300) vs. Tampa Bay- Reed has been a little like Hunter this year, with us all waiting impatiently for him to finally deliver on the talent we know is there. With Robert Griffin III back and a juicy match up against Tampa Bay, this feels like as good a week as any for it to happen. There's no reason that Reed shouldn't consistently be in the 5-75 range with a chance for a touchdown. If he gets anywhere near that he'll be a huge value.
Defense
Arizona Cardinals ($2800) vs. Detroit- This price is a steal unless you want to gamble with the weather in some of the less predictable games. This isn't your 2012 Lions offense, and they're very happy to let their defense win games for them. The one thing that is still there from 2012 is Matthew Stafford and his gunslinger mentality. Hope for a turnover or a big play, but be satisfied with a low point total and a few sacks.
