Surprises in October may not have been surprises in July. Did I lose you? There are many beliefs that we hold in the preseason that are slowly eroded by the evidence we see in the first few weeks of the season. Then something happens in Week 7 and we think "I knew it!". This week was full of examples, like a rookie running back proving he's better than the placeholder in front of him. Or a young quarterback facing a rare deficit and making history in his pursuit of the lead. Now we have to figure out of those things were anomalies or not. Let's take a look.
Tre Mason is the RB1 in St. Louis and a RB2 in your fantasy league. Mason saw his first extensive action of the year in Week 7 against the vaunted Seahawks defense. Sounds like a tough draw right? Well, the rookie ran for 4.7 YPC and a score while Zac Stacy totaled 0 touches. The guard has officially changed in St. Louis and Mason is the man.
Verdict: Believe it. We all thought Mason was more talented than Stacy and that Stacy's productivity was largely due to volume. Why it took Jeff Fisher 6 weeks to agree is beyond me, but it doesn't really matter now. When you make a change and it results in a victory over one of the best teams in football you don't generally change back any time soon. I expect Mason to be the lead back for the remainder of the year. If he can do that against the Seahawks, imagine what he'll do to lesser opponents.
Russell Wilson just gave us a glimpse of the future and should be no worse than QB3 in your dynasty rankings. Wilson found himself in a rare situation down double digits to the Rams early. Pete Carroll decided to let him loose and all Wilson did was something no quarterback had ever done before; 313 passing yards, 106 rushing yards, and 3 total touchdowns. There's something not quite right with the Seahawks right now and that may be the best case scenario for Wilson's fantasy value.
Verdict: Believe it. We never really thought Wilson was going to be stuck at 400 pass attempts per year for his entire career did we? He's the complete package at quarterback that has a very weak set of complementary weapons. He showed us this week that those weapons won't limit his upside. I can make an argument for ranking Wilson above any quarterback but Andrew Luck in my dynasty rankings.
Gavin Escobar is finally pushing the aging Jason Witten out in Dallas. Escobar is a talented young tight end that has been trapped behind Witten for the last year and a half. Escobar saw 3 targets for only the second time in his career this week and converted them into 3 receptions for 65 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Cowboys offense has been outstanding so far this year and Escobar replacing Witten would make them even better.
Verdict: Don't believe it. Witten has often struggled with getting into the end zone, but he's still being heavily targeted in the passing game. Escobar's mini-breakout isn't any more exciting than Ladarius Green's last year. As long as Witten is still able and willing, and as long as the Cowboys are winning, he'll remain a big part of the game plan. Escobar is still a dynasty stash only.
Shane Vereen is a PPR RB1 with Stevan Ridley out for the year. While everyone was speculating whether Brandon Bolden or James White was the new Patriots back to own, Vereen not so quietly put up 114 total yards and 2 scores against the Jets. If he's going to start getting 15-20 touches consistently there's no reason to see him as anything but a borderline RB1.
Verdict: Don't believe it. We've seen the carousel that is the New England running back situation before and we should have learned our lesson. Vereen was below 4 YPC and the Jets have been known to give up yards in the passing game out of the backfield. You can't count on his 2 receiving touchdowns weekly. Vereen should be a solid RB2 but no better.
Doug Baldwin is a WR2 with Percy Harvin gone. I've always thought Baldwin should be more involved in the passing game in Seattle and now they don't have much of a choice. He's the best route runner left in Seattle and has the best rapport with Russell Wilson. He may still be inconsistent due to the Seahawks ability to dominate opponents in the run game, but he'll be a borderline WR2.
Verdict: Don't believe it. Paul Richardson and Jermaine Kearse both have higher upsides than Baldwin and both will figure into the offensive plan. Baldwin needed the perfect situation against the perfect secondary to put up his huge Week 7. He'll definitely have weeks where he's a WR2 but he'll also have weeks where he completely disappears. I like Baldwin as a WR3/flex play for the remainder of 2014.
