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Week 4 saw one of our last remaining winless teams defeat a playoff contender on the road in what may be the biggest upset of the year. It also gave us a whole lot of blowouts, including a Monday Night laugher that no one anticipated. On the fantasy side, it was even less predictable. A quarterback we'd long written off torched a defense that had been stingy and a rookie quarterback led his team to victory in his first start. A pair of ex-Panthers blew up for different team while their rookie wide receiver continued to post historic numbers. Let's take a look at these trends and more in this week's Believe It or Not.
Eli Manning has figured out the new offensive system and will be a QB1 again in 2014. In Week 4 Manning torched a Washington defense that was giving up 216 yards per game through the air for 300 yards and 4 touchdowns. He looked more comfortable in the system, got some help from his receivers, and got rid of the ball extremely quick. With five games left against NFC East defenses, he has a great chance to post QB1 numbers in 2014.
Verdict: Don't believe it. Washington's "stingy" pass defense was one that had DeAngelo Hall, who they lost against the Giants. They had also faced Ryan Fitzpatrick and Chad Henne in their first two games. Manning did look more comfortable, but he still has an inconsistent receiving corps and he's still prone to inaccuracy. All 4 of his touchdowns went to tight ends and came from inside the 6 yard line. That is not sustainable, and neither is Manning as a reliable QB1.
Teddy Bridgewater is a borderline QB1 and a heavy buy in dynasty. In his first two games in the NFL Bridgewater has completed 62% of his passes for more than 9 yards per attempt and he's rushed for 54 yards and a touchdown. He's has a reliable target in Greg Jennings and a big play threat in Cordarrelle Patterson. He also has a strong running game to keep the pressure off of him. Buy now on Bridgewater.
Verdict: Believe it. Even though Bridgewater's performances have come against the Saints and Falcons, I'm still extremely impressed. His decision making has been near flawless and his athleticism gives him a built in floor. Bridgewater was QB13 in Week 4 without a passing touchdown. It isn't like he'll see a lot of tough pass defenses in the NFC North either.
Brandon LaFell is finally going to reach his potential with the Patriots. It took LaFell a little while to get comfortable in New England, but he has 18 targets in the last two games and exploded against the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. This offense is desperate for a big play threat and LaFell has always had that potential. It looks like he may finally realize it in 2014.
Verdict: Don't believe it. Both of LaFell's big plays came after this game was out of hand and he's still a very inconsistent player. Tom Brady just isn't a viable QB1 anymore and LaFell isn't special enough to elevate his aging quarterback's play. Rob Gronkowski is still going to be the main red zone threat (when this offense can get there) and Julian Edelman will still dominate targets most weeks. LaFell is nothing more than a desperation flex play if you have several players on bye.
Kelvin Benjamin is a solid WR1 and has a chance at an historic rookie season. I wrote about Benjamin in the preseason and well, I was wrong. He has been everything the Panthers could have asked for and more. He's currently the top rookie receiver and WR7 in PPR formats. He's on pace for 84-1316-12, which would in fact be historic.
Verdict: Believe it. Just how historic is Benjamin's pace? No rookie receiver has ever topped 80 catches, 1300 yards, and 10 touchdowns. Cam Newton has very few options in the passing game, and even if he did the way Benjamin has performed he'd still have to feed him. Benjamin has seen at least 8 targets in every game and scored a touchdown in 3 out of 4. He's still young so there will be bumps in the road, but more often than not you're going to get WR1 numbers from Benjamin this year.
LeSean McCoy is the biggest disappointment of the first round, and there's no reason to think that will change. McCoy was a consensus top two pick in the preseason, and for good reason. He was coming off a career year, and played in Chip Kelly's high paced offense. The addition of Darren Sproles and some poor offensive line play has turned McCoy into a borderline RB2 so far in 2014, and it's hard to see him cracking the top ten backs.
Verdict: Believe it. McCoy has seen his usage drop every single week so far this season and only had ten touches against the 49ers. He's rushing for a paltry 2.7 yards per carry and only has 64 yards in the passing game. McCoy likely has a few big games in him this year but with defenses keying on him and Sproles stealing touches he's going to finish far below where he was drafted.