This weekend reminded me of the OAR song "Crazy Game of Poker". From the Seahawks dismantling of Green Bay to the Bills and Dolphins shocking wins, from the Jaguars fantastic start and epic collapse to the Calvin Johnson's monster Monday Night Football...that was a crazy weekend of football. At receiver we had undrafted free agents playing like superstars and former superstars looking like afterthoughts. At running back we had perhaps the best back in the game getting seven carries while a rookie running back scored two touchdowns on five touches. Week one always seem a little bit crazy because some of our perception is based on offseason reports and preseason games. Let's dig into five week one performances and see what they mean.
Larry Fitzgerald is officially done as the WR1 in Arizona and is no better than a WR3 in fantasy.
The final game of the weekend saw one of the best receivers of our generation go 3 quarters without a target and nearly 55 minutes without a reception. The team instead focused on feeding Michael Floyd while mixing in passes to John Brown, Ted Ginn and various running backs and tight ends. With the Cardinals spreading the ball around like this and the immense upside of Floyd, there's just no way to expect Fitzgerald to be what he used to be.
Verdict: Believe it. While it did come as a shock, the fact is that Palmer threw for 302 yards and 2 scores and the Cardinals won the game. Bruce Arians stated afterwards that the Cardinals had no intentions of forcing the ball to Fitzgerald. "You have to ask the quarterback," Arians said Tuesday. "(Larry) is going out for a pass every time. I don't look at that. We don't design plays for guys to get the ball. That's interceptions waiting to happen." Fitzgerald will have plenty of games this year with more than one catch, but he won't be a reliable fantasy option.
Allen Hurns is for real, and the number one waiver wire add in week two.
Hurns was an undrafted free agent out of the University of Miami that dazzled in the preseason, but no one really thought that would last into week one. With Cecil Shorts hurt and Justin Blackmon and Ace Sanders serving suspensions Hurns got a chance in week one and shined once again. His 4-110-2 was good enough to make him the WR2 in week 1 which should be plenty to convince even the most skeptical of doubters.
Verdict: Don't believe it. The Eagles started this game off as if they knew they were playing the Jaguars and didn't wake up until the second quarter. Hurns posted a 3-101-2 in the first quarter on 3 targets. In the final 3 quarters he saw 6 targets and caught 1 of them for 9 yards. Cecil Shorts will cut into his production once he returns and defenses won't be sleeping on him any longer. Let someone else spend their FAAB on him.
Matt Ryan and the Falcons pass offense are back.
The Falcons offensive line was supposed to be a problem again and the Saints defense was supposed the much improved. So of course, Ryan threw for 448 yard and 3 touchdowns in a week 1 victory. Even more impressively, Ryan completed 72% of his passes while averaging more than 10 yards per attempts. This offense looks to be in midseason form and their defense will keep them throwing.
Verdict: Believe it. As long as Roddy White and Julio Jones are healthy this pass game is going to be one of the best in the league. The Falcons offensive line is a concern, but White and Jones don't take very long to get open. This Falcons team figures to be consistently involved in shootouts because their defense is going to have a hard time stopping anyone. If the Ryan owner in your league is looking to sell high, make him an offer.
Jamaal Charles is a serious bust candidate due to the offensive line issues in Kansas City.
Inexplicably, Charles saw only seven carries in the team's week on loss to the Titans at home. The offensive line struggled to get a push or protect Alex Smith and the defense gave up enough points to keep the offense playing catch up. Charles was the first overall pick in many leagues and has a chance to be one of the most colossal fantasy busts of all time.
Verdict: Don't believe it. The offensive line was bad, but it will improve when Donald Stephenson returns after week four. More importantly, Andy Reid has recognized his mistake and vowed not to repeat it. “Not giving [Charles] the ball more than seven times was negligence on my part,” Reid said in his press conference. Charles is virtually the only hope the Chiefs have on offense and he's going to see a steady diet of touches even if they're trailing. He may not finish as the RB1 again this season, but he's still a safe bet to be a top five back.
The hype train was way out of control on Travis Kelce and Ladarius Green.
By the end of August Kelce and Green were both being hyped as borderline TE1s with the potential to score even higher than that. In week one they combined for 5 catches and 73 yards. What's worse is that their snap counts lagged way behind the veterans in front of them. Neither the Chiefs or Chargers brass seem willing to involve their young stud tight ends on a consistent basis, which is going to lead to a frustratingly inconsistent season with a couple of breakout performances.
Verdict: Believe it. The situations are similar, but also different. In San Diego, they're trying to figure out how to phase out an aging superstar that isn't ready to hang up the cleats. In Kansas City, Andy Reid doesn't trust Kelce as a blocker and Smith still has a good relationship with Anthony Fasano. These situations may slowly change throughout the year, but it's going to be painstaking if you reached based on hype to hold on to these young tight ends hoping that the break out is just around the corner.