As I did last week I'm focusing this week's Believe It Or Not on the long term viability of some of this year's bigger surprises. Sometimes even after players have posted impressive stats as a young player we still don't believe in their talent. Other times we get so enamored by player's talent that we overlook how mediocre their production is. Those are the two types of players we're focusing on in this week's Believe It or Not.
Mychal Rivera is the best dynasty bet amongst tight ends under 25. Rivera was outstanding in 2013 when compared to the typical rookie tight end but he still got very little love heading into this season. For the first seven weeks it looked like the doubters would be proven right, but once again he's exploded in the second half of the season. Since Tony Sparano took over Rivera has 25 catches for 363 yards and 4 touchdowns. That's good enough to make him TE3 since Week 8.
Verdict: Believe it. The reason for much of the doubt over last year's performance was that his success came with Matt McGloin at quarterback. It doesn't do much good to earn the trust of a quarterback that is a QB3 at best on his own team. This year he's developed rapport with the quarterback of the future in Oakland, Derek Carr. Rivera has already bested last year's production and there's no reason to see him as anything worse than a borderline TE1 moving forward.
Colin Kaepernick is nothing more than a QB2 moving forward. Kaepernick is the opposite of Rivera in that he's generally ranked much higher than he ends up producing. His best finish came in 2013 when he was QB11 and he seems to be getting worse, not better. There is a ton of uncertainty surrounding the 49ers future, but outside of Carlos Hyde there aren't a lot of young exciting options to help Kaepernick out in the future. Kaepernick may be a high end QB2, but even that may be stretching it.
Verdict: Believe it. The 49ers offensive line hasn't done him any favors, but Kaepernick's inaccuracy has been troubling to say the least. Vernon Davis has completely disappeared from the offense and it's very clear when watching them that this offense is only successful when they run much more than they pass. The problem with that is that Kaepernick has seen his production on the ground drop each of the last two years. If rumors about Jim Harbaugh's future are true there's at least a 50% chance that things get worse for the 49ers offense before they get better.
Jeremy Hill has more value in dynasty leagues than Giovani Bernard. A strange thing has happened in the Cincinnati backfield, with Jeremy Hill actually outproducing future star Giovani Bernard. Hill dominated to the tune of 389 total yards and 2 touchdowns while Bernard was injured and has outscored him since he returned. It wasn't something anyone suspected coming into the year, but Hill looks to be the best option in Cincinnati.
Verdict: Don't believe it. We don't really even know how healthy Bernard is at this point, but I'm still very confident that Bernard is the more talented of the two backs. Bernard has more big play ability than Hill and more special skills. It's good to remember that Hill's three game stretch came against the Jaguars, Browns and Saints. Against poor run defenses, with a huge volume, Hill can be a very effective back. Then again so can a large percentage of the running backs in the league.
T.Y. Hilton is a quality WR1 in 2015 and beyond. When you look at the first three years of Hilton's career it's hard to see why he isn't viewed as a second tier WR1 almost universally. In his rookie year he posted 50-861-7, which was good enough for borderline WR2 status. Last year his 82-1083-5 made him a solid WR2. Finally, in 2014 he fulfilled the 3rd year breakout prophecy and is on pace for 96-1594-8.
Verdict: Believe it. Hilton has just about everything you would want from a dynasty WR1. He has youth, a history of production, and a quarterback that is as young as he is talented. Luck to Hilton should become a mainstay over the next five years, and Hilton should finish in the WR7-12 range if not higher. This is the type of player where you can take advantage of the lower perception, and steal a solid WR1 of the future.
It's time to move on from Larry Fitzgerald in keeper and dynasty leagues. I suppose this may be a little bit harsh in deeper leagues, but in a standard 12 team league, there's very little reason to keep Fitzgerald this offseason. At the beginning of next year Fitzgerald will be a 32 year old receiver with 1 top-20 season in his last 3. This year he's been unstartable, posting only 3 weeks with more than 12 PPR fantasy points and 5 with 7.4 or less.
Verdict: Believe it. It's really sad the way that Fitzgerald's career has wound down. At one time he was arguably the best wide receiver in football and a top-5 fantasy option for 4 out of 5 years from 2007-2011. He's battled through more subpar quarterback play than any elite wide receiver should ever have to, but he's reached a point where he's just not good enough to carry a mediocre signal caller.
