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As I mentioned last week we'll be transitioning to 2015 and beyond with this article in Week 14. This year has been full of surprises but it's really difficult to know what those surprises mean in the future. Remember who was the third highest scoring quarterback last year? Andy Dalton. Remember who the 109th running back was? Justin Forsett. Obviously, projecting the future involves a lot more than just looking at the past, even if that is where we generally start. Let's take a look at 5 surprising performances from the last month and see if they carry any weight.
C.J. Anderson will be the lead back in Denver and an RB1 in 2015. Anderson has been the best running back in fantasy football since Week 10 and it isn't really that close. He's averaging 5.6 yards per carry and he's a force in the passing game as well. The Broncos would be foolish to turn the load over to Montee Ball or Ronnie Hillman when they return because Anderson has looked much better than either running the ball.
Verdict: Don't believe it. I think there's a chance that Anderson leads a committee in 2015 but I don't see any way he gets enough of the workload to be an RB1. Even if Hillman is gone, the Broncos aren't just going to cast aside their 2nd round pick from 2013. Best case scenario for Anderson next year is that he leads a committee and sees 15 touches a game. If that's the case, he'll be a solid RB2.
Jarvis Landry will be the first option in Miami and a WR2 in 2015. Over the last month, Landry leads the Dolphins in targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns. The 5'11" rookie is a more complete receiver than Mike Wallace and fits better into the offensive philosophy in Miami. Over a full season, Landry's last month projects to 108-868-12. He probably won't match those numbers, but he should perform well enough to be a solid WR2.
Verdict: Believe it. Tannehill to Wallace never quite developed into what the Dolphins had hoped it would but Landry has been a revelation in his rookie campaign. He has better hands than Wallace and seems to have better grasped the route tree. He's essentially taken over Brian Hartline's role in the offense and expanded it to a certain degree. Landry should be a solid contributor in 2015 and beyond.
Zach Mettenberger is the best quarterback from this rookie class. Since Mettenberger took over as the Titans offense he's looked like the best quarterback in what has so far been a disappointing class. He's been a borderline QB1 over that timeframe with an impressive 8.9 yards per attempts. Saying that Mettenberger is the best quarterback in this class doesn't exactly mean he'll be a fantasy starter in 2015, but he's the most likely candidate.
Verdict: Don't believe it. As is often the case with rookie classes, we have no idea at this point who the best starter is. Remember 2012, when Robert Griffin III was outperforming Andrew Luck? You're much better off to bet on the guy we all thought was better at the beginning of the year than to let their rookie performance jade your evaluation of their talent. Especially when so many of these rookie quarterbacks are playing on awful teams.
Coby Fleener is the next big thing at tight end and should be drafted as such. As soon as Dwayne Allen went down Fleener turned into one of the best tight ends in the league. Over the last month he's the #1 tight end, posting a 13-299-2. Fleener is making spectacular catches and making plays after the catch as well. As good as Andrew Luck is, and as good as his relationship with Fleener is, there's no reason to expect anything less than elite TE production from the duo in 2015.
Verdict: Don't believe it. With Dwayne Allen healthy, Donte Moncreif emerging, and T.Y. Hilton still the best offensive weapon on the team, there is no reason you should expect Fleener's hot streak to continue into 2015. Andrew Luck has a glut of offensive weapons at his disposal and we still haven't mentioned aging All Pro receiver Reggie Wayne. At best Fleener is a borderline TE1 next season.
Fred Jackson is finally done as a fantasy running back and shouldn't be drafted in 2015. Counting out Fred Jackson has been popular over the last few seasons...and dead wrong nearly every time. But this time he's done...really done. No body his age can continue to bounce back from injuries and be the same back. If Jackson even returns next year it will be in a limited role that won't be worthy of a roster spot.
Verdict: Believe it. When next season starts Jackson will be a 34 year old running back on an offense that we aren't even sure will be good. Speaking of not being good, Jackson has averaged a hair over 3 yards per carry since Week 6 and only has 3 touchdowns this year. Jackson's run in the twilight of his career was beautiful, but the light is gone and all that's left is a dark future.