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This will be our final Believe it Or Not that focuses on the 2014 season as most teams move into the playoffs. The final 4 weeks of the year will be focused on keeper and dynasty leagues and what information from 2014 you should take with you. With that in mind, there were some surprising happenings in Week 12 and we need to dig into what they mean. A rookie quarterback had his biggest day as a pro, and looked to take a step ahead of his classmates while a former dynasty stash finally broke out with an historic performance. A receiver that started the year on the practice squad had his second straight solid start while a former top five tight end continues to struggle. What does it mean for the rest of this year? Let's find out.
Zach Mettenberger should be added immediately for depth as an upper-end QB2. Mettenberger now has 4 starts under a belt and in those 4 weeks he's finished QB14, QB23, QB12, and QB7. The Eagles secondary certainly had something to do with his QB7 performance, but that also speaks to Mettenberger's ability to take advantage of a suspect unit. He shouldn't be on any waiver wires after this week.
Verdict: Believe It. Mettenberger's playoff schedule includes the Giants, Jets and Jaguars so the fact that he just exploited the Eagles defense should actually make you feel better. Mettenberger has the arm talent and seems to be progressing as the season goes on. He still has a very low floor because of his inexperience, but if you're in dire need of a quarterback he provides more upside than just about any other QB2.
Latavius Murray, if he can recover from his concussion, has a chance to be a difference maker in the playoffs. As someone that has watched the Raiders extensively it was astonishing how much quicker Murray hit the hole than the aging running backs Oakland has used this season. Murray flashed his big play ability, and at 1-10 the Raiders have no reason to keep giving the ball to Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew.
Verdict: Don't believe it. The Raiders have an extremely difficult schedule in the playoffs with San Francisco, Kansas City and Buffalo coming up. They also have a long history of making poor decisions with their touches at running back. Even if Murray gets healthy he's a what-the-heck flex play at best in 2014. The real hope for Murray is that the Raiders see enough this season to give him the starting job heading into camp next year.
Charles Johnson is developing into the WR1 in Minnesota and a WR3 in your league. The former 7th round pick has been a favorite of the metrics crowd since he was drafted by Green Bay in 2013. He has size and speed, but he spent the first year plus of his career on various practice squads. Over the last two weeks he's dominated the targets in Minnesota and produced 9 catches for 139 yards and a touchdown.
Verdict: Believe it. I always like it when someone falls into good favor with the quarterback of the future, and that's exactly where Johnson is right now. His 18 targets over the last two weeks are enough for anyone to have success, especially someone with his measurables. There may not be enough in Minnesota to produce a true WR1 or WR2 but Johnson should be a solid WR3/flex the rest of the year.
Vernon Davis is droppable in all redraft formats. Davis has been absolutely awful since scoring two touchdowns in Week 1. He's topped 21 yards only twice and hasn't scored in 8 straight games. Whether it's a problem with his health, his concentration, or even his place in the offense there is no reason to leave production like that on your bench. Cut bait with Davis and add someone that may help you in the playoffs.
Verdict: Don't believe it. The 49ers have made a concerted effort to get Davis involved in the offense the last couple of weeks and a breakout is coming. Colin Kaepernick just missed him on a couple of deep balls two weeks ago and last week Davis had a 20 yard reception called back because of an illegal man downfield. There's plenty of middling talent at tight end to pick up off the waiver wire but none of them have the upside of Davis if he gets it going.
Dan Herron is worth an add as a flex in PPR leagues. Herron got the start in Week 12 with Ahmad Bradshaw on the IR and Trent Richardson feeling ill. Herron put up 96 total yards and caught all 5 passes thrown his way. With Richardson's lack of burst and the Colts lack of depth at running back Herron is a nice add for a team that is thin at running back.
Verdict: Believe it. Herron averaged more than 5 yard per carry and his prowess in the passing game gives him a sustainable floor. He may struggle to get touchdowns because of Richardson's usage in the red zone, but he's still a decent option as a flex in deeper leagues. Fantasy owners are willing to believe in just about anyone other than Richardson in Indianapolis, so Herron could also be a nice trade piece in the offseason in dynasty and keeper leagues.
