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The second half of a season is generally overvalued because of recency bias, but sometimes it just takes players that long to get going. Whether it be a new opportunity, a better understanding of the offense, or a change of scenery all of these players busted out in Week 9. Of course, a one week breakout doesn't mean much by itself, but are there reasons to think that this may be more? Let's find out in this week's Believe It Or Not.
Ryan Tannehill has figured out the Dolphins new system and is a borderline QB1 the rest of the year. The funny thing about Tannehill is that he was basically a borderline QB1 last year and no one noticed. This year he got off to a rocky start in a new system and word leaked out of Miami that they were considering benching him. Since then he's been a new quarterback and the Dolphins offense has looked rejuvenated.
Verdict: Believe it. Bill Lazor's offense has Tannehill picking up points on the ground and through the air, and more importantly it's working. We really should have expected him to have a little trouble with the new system, but the NFL is not a league that often shows patience. Tannehill has had at least 23 fantasy points in 4 of his 5 starts adding a level of consistency that was missing in 2013.
Now that Jeremy Hill has shown the Bengals what he can do with volume, he'll be a solid RB2. Hill started in Giovani Bernard's absence and put up 24-154-2 against a Jaguars defense that had been improving against the run. This monster performance (and concerns about Bernard's health) should guarantee Hill 15 touches a game moving forward, and he's a solid RB2 with that kind of volume.
Verdict: Don't believe it. The Jaguars were a decent run defense before Paul Posluszny got hurt, but his loss hurt them bad. Outside of a 60 yard run in the 4th quarter, Hill was actually bottled up pretty well. He's a fine RB2 until Bernard is back in the lineup, but once Bernard returns he'll limit Hill's touches too much for him to be anything more than a flex play.
Odell Beckham Jr is the WR1 in New York and a WR2 in PPR leagues for the rest of the year. Beckham leads the Giants in receiving yards and touchdowns since he was made active in Week 5. He had his first 100 yard game in Week 9 against the Colts and looks like the only Giants receiver that can consistently get open. Beckham is best playmaker on an offense that needs one desperately.
Verdict: Believe it. Beckham's actually getting significantly less targets than Rueben Randle, but he's been much more efficient with those targets. There's much more reason to think that Beckham will get better throughout the year than Randle, who we've been waiting on to reach his potential for too long now. I was down on Beckham to begin the year because I thought he'd have to fight through Randle and Victor Cruz for targets. With Cruz out and Randle struggling again there's nothing in Beckham's way.
After a slow start, Mychal Rivera is back to being a borderline TE1 and a good dynasty stash. Rivera quietly had a very impressive rookie year, largely after Matt McGloin took over. Then he had a terrible camp and start to the year, struggling to even catch the ball. He's bounced back the last two weeks and caught two touchdown passes in Week 9 against the Seahawks.
Verdict: Believe it. The main difference between this year and last is that Rivera is now building rapport with a quarterback that figures to be there for a while, as opposed to one that is simply a placeholder. Rivera isn't an exceptional talent, but he's good enough to get open against linebackers and the early season notwithstanding good hands. Rivera is a sneaky play during the byes and has a good long term outlook.
Percy Harvin will be more properly used in New York than he was in Seattle, and is once again an elite fantasy receiver. Harvin was reportedly unhappy with the way he was being used in Seattle and the Jets have been more accommodating. Harvin has 19 touches in his first 2 games and he doesn't even fully know the offense yet. The Jets have big plans for Harvin and that's great news for his owners.
Verdict: Don't believe it. We're a long way from knowing what the future looks like in New York, but the present is bleak. Harvin may be a borderline WR2 down the stretch but it's difficult to see this offense supporting much more than that. Harvin also brings with him the discontent risk, and any time a team like Seattle gives up a talent like Harvin for such a low price you have to wonder how big that risk is.