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My apologies for this week's article being a week late but Believe It Or Not I spent a lot of time this week watching the Kansas City Royals win the American League Pennant. Verdict: Believe it. Too cheesy? Maybe so, but the NFL was not to be outdone and we saw some unbelievable things in Week 6. A rookie quarterback took on one of the best defenses in the league thus far and tossed four touchdown passes while a former top five quarterback was outscored by Geno Smith and Kyle Orton. The top ten running backs so far include several fantasy afterthoughts while the consensus top two picks still reside outside of RB1 territory. All of this while a star receiver sat out and his backup put up a line that would make any WR1 proud. What does it all mean? Let's find out in this week's Believe It Or Not.
Derek Carr has finally had the reigns removed and will be a sneaky streaming option. In Tony Sparano's first week as head coach the Raiders changed their offensive philosophy, throwing the ball downfield much more regularly. The results were mixed, but included 4 touchdown passes for Carr including a 77 yard bomb to Andre Holmes on the 3rd play of the game. Carr has the arm, and the Raiders wide outs have the speed to turn this into an exciting offense.
Verdict: Believe it. The Raiders aren't magically going to turn into a good team, but they could absolutely turn into a valuable fantasy commodity. As someone that recaps their games every week it was so refreshing to see the Raiders using Carr's big arm. Considering they had their best offensive performance of the year there's no reason to expect another change in philosophy anytime soon.
Matthew Stafford is not a reliable QB1 until Calvin Johnson returns. In his last two starts Stafford is averaging just over 200 yards per game and 1 touchdown. The Lions are letting their defense and run game win for them and Stafford's fantasy numbers are suffering because of it. With Golden Tate as his best receiver and a collection of tight ends prone to drops, you really can't count on Stafford right now.
Verdict: Believe it. Stafford is QB10 so far for the year but he's QB21 over the past 4 games. He's been outscored by Blake Bortles, Austin Davis and Mike Glennon in that timeframe. This is a perfect storm of Johnson's injury and the Lions defense playing really well. Once Johnson is 100% and the competition gets tougher, he should bounce back but you may need to start your back up for the next few weeks.
Lamar Miller will be a RB1 the rest of the way after the Knowshon Moreno injury. Miller has been much maligned over the past 12 months but he's been nothing but spectacular in 2014. He's averaged 5.2 yards per carry and scored at least 17 PPR fantasy points in all but one game. With Moreno out for the year he should be guaranteed 15-20 touches a game and that's enough to keep him in the top ten running backs.
Verdict: Believe it. Miller's main competition for touches right now is Daniel Thomas, so that should make you very confident in his workload. The Dolphins are doing a better job of run blocking than they did in 2013 and Miller is taking advantage of it. They may not have wanted him to be a workhorse, but they don't really have a choice now.
Mohamed Sanu is a WR2 at worst until A.J. Green returns. Even when Green was playing, Sanu had been a pleasant surprise in 2014. In his first 4 games he had 17 catches for 234 yards and 2 scores. Of course, then Green missed Week 6 and Sanu went nuts. His 11 catches, 120 yards and 1 TD are impressive but the 15 targets are what really get me excited. WR2 may be selling him short.
Verdict: Believe it. Green is expected to miss Week 7 as well and the news on Marvin Jones is even worse. Andy Dalton's weapons in the passing game have been wrecked by injury, leaving Sanu as his only reliable target. He may not get 15 targets every week, but 10 may be his floor. He's a borderline WR1 until the Bengals gets someone back healthy.
Clay Harbor is a viable starting tight end until Marcedes Lewis returns. Harbor has seen 16 targets in his last three games and definitely has built some trust with Blake Bortles by catching 14 of them. Since Week 4 he's TE6 in PPR formats and averaging an impressive 13 yards per reception. The Jaguars chase the scoreboard pretty much every game so there's no reason to think these numbers will fall off.
Verdict: Don't believe it. Half of Harbor's 16 targets came in his first game, so a more realistic expectation is 4 targets per game moving forward. With Cecil Shorts and Allen Robinson healthy and in the mix, Harbor may have trouble maintaining even that. This team isn't going to get in the red zone often enough for Harbor to score regularly and he won't have very many 59 yards receptions to carry him like he did last week.
