One of the things I love about the NFL is how silly it can make us all look. Not just you and me, but also some of the smartest people in the NFL. Don't believe me? This week we saw an undrafted running back out of Buffalo (the Bulls not the Bills) tally 182 total yards and 2 scores against the best run defense in the league. Not convinced? How about another former undrafted pick that's been cut twice throwing for 702 yards in his last two games? While it's really fun to watch these surprise performances, what's more important is figuring out how predictive they are. That's what we do every week in Believe It Or Not.
Austin Davis is a viable QB streaming option, especially in the bye weeks. Davis is obviously the undrafted quarterback we were talking about above. Last year no one thought he was good enough to even be a QB3, but after injuries to Sam Bradford and Shaun Hill he looks like the starting quarterback for the Rams for the remainder of the year. Davis has put up huge numbers in his last two match ups and is exactly the type of quarterback that fits with the streaming model.
Verdict: Believe it. You want no part of Davis the next two weeks against San Francisco or Seattle, but I could absolutely see starting him in Week 8, 11, 13, 14 or 16. Davis has just enough talent and just enough weapons to wing the ball all over the yard when his team is chasing the scoreboard. Being named the starter has done wonders for his confidence as has the development of Brian Quick. If you're streaming quarterbacks, Davis should be on your mind.
Branden Oliver is the #1 Waiver Wire add in Week 6. As improbable as Davis' success has been, at least it came against defenses that kind of made sense. Oliver slashed through a Jets defense that had been the best in the league for 8.5 yards per carry and over 15 yards per reception. At only 5' 7" Oliver is a smaller back that at the very least could fill the role of Danny Woodhead when he returns. He's caught every ball that's been thrown his way this year.
Verdict: Don't believe it. Woodhead may be out for the year, but Ryan Mathews and Donald Brown will both be returning sooner rather than later. Oliver's success against the Jets came largely because he isn't a traditional back. While that was a plus against the Jets, Oliver isn't going to be given the chance at 23 touches once the primary backs return. The only way I could see making a big push for Oliver is if you need a running back this week, because Mathews is still out and San Diego gets the Raiders.
Brian Quick will finish the year as a WR2. Quick's story is similar in some ways to the other two. He did go to Appalachian State, and he was left for dead by the fantasy community after two subpar years in St. Louis. However, he's also a talented 6'4" receiver that was drafted in the second round. In 4 weeks he's set career highs in receptions (21), yards (322) and touchdowns (3). If you were looking for the third year breakout at receiver, Quick is your guy.
Verdict: Believe it. With Austin Davis under center Quick has posted 7-149-3 in his last 2 starts. In Week 3 against the Cowboys he showed his big play ability with a 51 yard reception then last week he did work in the red zone with a pair of touchdowns from inside the 10. Quick may struggle over the next couple of weeks, but that's when you snatch him up.
It's time to give up on Jordan Cameron as a TE1. Since we started the article with some dark horses that have shined, we'll end it with a couple of the biggest duds. Cameron has yet to reach the end zone or break the 50 yard mark in any of the Browns 4 games. His targets have dropped significantly from 2013, despite the fact that Brian Hoyer has started every game. There's really no reason to think he's magically going to turn things around at this point.
Veridict: Believe it. In 2013 Cameron averaged more than 7 targets per game and caught 71% of them. So far this year his targets have dropped to 5 per game and he's only caught 40% of them. Part of it is his health, part of it is the attention the defense is paying to him, and part of it is the close games the Browns have been playing. He may be helped when Josh Gordon returns late in the year, but until then you need to find someone else to start.
Doug Martin's rookie year was the anomaly, not his struggles since. Martin was a revelation as a rookie, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and scoring 12 touchdowns on his way to finishing as the 3rd best running back in fantasy football. Since then he's averaged 3.3 yards per carry and scored 2 touchdowns in 9 games. Tampa Bay is bad in a lot of places, but all of Martin's struggles can't be explained solely by his surrounding cast. At this point you're just hoping he turns into a borderline RB2.
Verdict: Believe it. If you'll remember, Martin's rookie year was buoyed by a monster performance against the Raiders in Week 9. He ran for 251 yards and scored 4 touchdowns against a defense that barely looked to be trying. Take that game out and Martin's yards (4.1) and touchdowns (8) look much more pedestrian. There's no doubt that Martin is still a talented back, but he's not as talented as his rookie year made it seem, nor is he good enough to carry this supporting cast.
