The Denver Broncos offense, always so ripe for a fantasy RB1 dynamo, found itself struggling mightily to implement any semblance of a run game over the first half of 2014. Montee Ball was ineffective for four starts and then tore his groin in the fifth. Ronnie Hillman flashed big-play ability across the next four, but was inconsistent overall and lost seven games to a foot sprain. It appeared the theoretical fantasy gold mine of a Broncos starting running back wouldn’t be materializing in 2014.
But it was the next man to the table, unheralded and undrafted C.J. Anderson, who truly ran with the job. He averaged 117 scrimmage yards over the final nine games (including the playoffs) and spent the fantasy stretch run as an unquestioned weekly RB1. He showed unexpected athleticism and versatility, averaging 4.7 yards per carry over that stretch holding up well in the passing game. In other words: Anderson staked his claim to the plum gig and has yet to relinquish it.
But what if Anderson falters, or goes down with a long-term injury? What would we then make of this high-scoring, high-potential offense?
Buy
RB Montee Ball – Ball will almost certainly enter the year as Anderson’s direct backup, though he’s not a particularly exciting one in most other offenses. His 2014 leaves a horrible taste in fantasy mouths, of course: his first-round ADP ultimately provided owners with the overall RB89. Ball churned out 36 fantasy points through four weeks, then lost the rest of the season to his injury. He’s not a special back, athletically or fundamentally, but the presence of Peyton Manning and the volume of snaps and touches would bring Ball real RB2/3 value immediately. (This presupposes that Ball successfully fends off competition from the underwhelming Hillman and deep reserve Juwan Thompson.)
QB Peyton Manning – Without a dependable run game, Gary Kubiak would be forced to swing the offensive pendulum back squarely onto Peyton Manning’s arm. We’ve seen it before: Kubiak’s 2013 Texans lost Arian Foster for most of the year and responded with 675 dropbacks, fifth-most in football. Much of that involved game script – those Texans finished 2-14 – but the fact remains that Kubiak is absolutely willing to sling the ball voluminously as needed.
Kubiak has long been adept at maximizing a quarterback’s talent. This has typically meant overachieving fantasy numbers, as when Joe Flacco posted career highs in yardage and touchdowns last year. An injury to Anderson – and the drop in rushing efficacy we’d expect to result from that – would boost Manning’s volume outlook back into top-three QB1 status. He would become thoroughly matchup-proof and likely threaten 45 touchdowns again.
WR Cody Latimer – A high-measurables guy with inconsistent yet sporadically dominant college tape, Latimer didn’t see his number called as a rookie (just four targets across eight active gamedays). And under expected circumstances, he likely won’t play a fantasy-friendly role in the Denver offense this year; I’ve projected him optimistically at 47 catches and four touchdowns. But if the run game falters and the passing volume increases to pick up the slack, Latimer will find himself in the thick of a high-octane offense, likely jockeying for the #3 receiving role on any given Sunday. He’d have real WR3 upside in a scheme designed to throw 40+ passes a game. That potential makes him a sneaky (and relatively cheap) target to pry from an owner who’s sick of seeing 2-25 fantasy lines.
Hold
WRs Demaryius Thomas / Emmanuel Sanders – If the Broncos pass game indeed explodes beyond expectation, don’t be in a rush to sell these guys off. And note that prying them from their owners will be nearly impossible. They’ll likely morph from mere gold into deep-fried gold rolled in powdered sugar: swollen passing totals benefit individual Broncos receivers more so than in most offenses. That’s because the #1 and #2 roles are even more prominent in Denver, which doesn’t throw particularly often to its reserves. If Manning starts airing out 40+ passes a game again, both Thomas and Sanders will be rock-solid, high-floor WR1 options on a weekly basis, force-fed the ball independently of matchup or situation.
Sell
None.
Add
RBs Ronnie Hillman / Juwan Thompson – The Broncos’ chief backup spot is always a position to watch. The sheer nature of the offense allows for such monstrous play volumes that the starter takes a breather often; as a result, Broncos backups have been known to post flex-quality games. Not to mention, of course, the supreme handcuff value in case of a starter injury.
If Anderson goes down, Montee Ball would likely step into the starter’s shoes, but the new #2 role created would be worth monitoring on your wire. Hillman is the annual frontrunner in camp, but has shown very little on the field through his three years. He posted an impressive four-game stretch last year after Ball’s injury, but still sits on a career 4.0 YPC and has been inconsistent in the pass game. He’s smallish, lacks physicality, and has fumbled five times on just 289 touches. He could conceivably lose his role (and roster spot) to Thompson this preseason. Thompson is not a gifted back, but he did average 5.0 YPC and score on two of his three short-yardage carries last year.
Drop
None.