Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 9-26-15, 12:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 17 (32 teams)
Bowling Green at Purdue
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Bowling Green -1.5
O/U: 79
Bowling Green
Team Expected Points: 40.75
QB – Matt Johnson – 8,600
Analysis: Matt Johnson did not disappoint last week, putting up 443 yards through the air with 4 total touchdowns. Williams has another great matchup this week in a game against a bad Purdue defense with the highest total on the slate. Bowling Green is a very slim favorite, so we expect for Johnson to play the entire game and pass around 40 times for another 400+ yards.
Recommendation: Johnson is a great, safe play in all formats as this game has a super high total and he leads a very explosive offense.
WR – Roger Lewis– 7,600, Ronnie Moore – 6,600, Ryan Burbrink – 5,400
Analysis: Roger Lewis lost his mind last week---literally. Green put up one of the largest yardage totals I have ever seen as he caught 7 passes for an absurd 261 yards and 3 touchdowns. To make this even more absurd, Lewis didn’t even lead the team in receptions, as Ryan Burbrink ended up with 8 catches on the day for 77 yards.
Recommendation: This offense is very potent and has the highest total on the board. Purdue is bad, so let it rip with Bowling Green wide receivers. We are fine with paying up for Roger Lewis in all formats, while Moore and Burbrink are in play purely due to this juicy O/U.
RB – Travis Greene – 6,200, Fred Coppet – 5,400
Analysis: We really expected big things out of Travis Greene last week, but he disappointed with only 11 carries for 63 yards and no touchdowns. Greene has not been very productive this year, averaging only 4.3 yards per carry with only 1 touchdown on the year and 6 receptions through the air. His price is super low this week against a Purdue team that has allowed 190 rushing yards per game this season to some relatively sub-par rushing teams. Fred Coppet may steal a few carries, but we still expect Greene to shoulder the load and bounce back soon enough this year.
Recommendation: At 6,200, Travis Greene is a solid play in all formats as he can save you some cap dollars while providing decent upside at the running back position.
Purdue
Team Expected Points: 38.25
QB – David Blough – 5,300
Analysis: Freshman David Blough takes over as former starter Austin Appleby visits with the bench due to his recent turnover issues. Bowling Green has allowed around 50 points per game this season, as teams are force to try and keep up with their fast paced high scoring offense. The Purdue offense is nothing to write home about, but this Bowling Green defense is certainly worth targeting. With the super-high total in this game, Blough naturally comes in with a relatively high ceiling. While he naturally is a passer, he has shown the ability to make plays with his legs as well.
Recommendation: Blough is very cheap at only 5,300. He is certainly in play for all formats, as taking a quarterback this cheap could allow you to pay up for some very attractive position players on this slate. The very high O/U in this game certainly justifies this as a safer cash game play.
RB – DJ Knox – 6,400, Markell Jones – 4,900
Analysis: DJ Knox had performed well this season until he ran into a tough matchup against the stout Virginia Tech defense last week. Knox struggled to pick up only 16 yards on 8 carries against the Hokies. This week however, the tides turn as he instead faces one of the worst defenses in the league. With Purdue trotting out a backup quarterback, we expect the run game to play a big part in Purdue’s game plan as they try to keep the ball away from the high powered Bowling Green offense. Backup freshman Markell Jones has put up solid numbers in his first 3 games, including a touchdown in each of them. Despite his consistency paper, Jones has been
Recommendation: DJ Knox grades out as an outstanding value for us this week at only 6,400. We expect him have a season-best game here due to the matchup and very high O/U. Knox is a solid cash and tournament option. We like Markell Jones more for tournaments due to his big play potential and reliance. Jones should also have a lower ownership level.
BYU at Michigan
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Michigan -5.5
O/U: 45
BYU
Team Expected Points: 19.75
The Michigan defense has been great on both sides of the ball this year, ranked 7th overall in yards per game. In their first game of the season, Michigan limited one of the best running backs in football Devantae Booker to only 3.1 yards per carry (22 for 69). While BYU has some talent on offense, we feel there are better matchups to target this week in what Vegas thinks will be a relatively low scoring affair.
Michigan
Team Expected Points: 25.25
Michigan has disappointed us time and time again this season. This game has a very low total, and we are not very comfortable with any of the players on this offense with the exception of a relatively cheap Amara Darboh (6,100) at wide receiver along with Jake Butt (3,300) at tight end. Both represent decent value, but we would not use either outside of a tournament.
Central Michigan at Michigan State
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Michigan State -26.5
O/U: 54
Central Michigan
Team Expected Points: 13.75
QB – Cooper Rush – 6,600
Analysis: The Michigan State defense has not looked as good as we expected this year, allowing almost just as many points to a couple of FCS opponents as they did to Oregon in week 2. The Spartans have allowed almost 275 passing yards per game this year, good for 107th in FBS. Opposing quarterback Cooper Rush is averaging over 300 yards per game and should eclipse 40 attempts as Central Michigan does not have much of a rushing game.
Recommendation: Rush has a decent price at only 6,600 considering he averages over 40 passes and 300 yards per game. However, he does face Michigan State—a historically (yet not recently) stout defense. He is a little risky for cash games, but could be in play as a GPP option.
Michigan State
Team Expected Points: 40.25
QB – Connor Cook – 7,600
Analysis: Connor Cook had his best game of the year last week against Air Force. Cook completed 15 of his season-low 23 attempts for 247 yards and a season-high 4 touchdowns. Michigan State has not been able to run the ball nearly as effectively this year, so Cook must continue to shoulder the road as the Spartans try to maintain their perfect record this week.
Recommendation: Conner Cook is overpriced at 7,600—we do not expect much from him here and would recommend avoiding.
WR – Aaron Burbridge – 6,800
Analysis: After last week’s performance, Aaron Burbridge deserved his salary bump. Burbridge had an incredible fantasy day, catching 8 balls for 156 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has dominated the attention of Connor Cook this season, exceeding 100 yards in all 3 of his games and with 16 receptions and 4 touchdowns in his last 2 outings. The Spartans have not been able to get anything going on the ground, so we expect Burbridge to continue to be a focal point of this offense.
Recommendation: Burbridge is a decent play for his price, but he isn’t one of our top values
Georgia Tech at Duke
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Georgia Tech -8.5
O/U: 59.5
Georgia Tech
Team Expected Points: 33.75
QB – Justin Thomas – 7,900
Analysis: Georgia Tech did not perform well up against its first true test of the season at Notre Dame last week. Justin Thomas was forced to throw the ball 24 times for only the second time in his career. He ended the game with a paltry 33% completion rate for 121 yards. Thomas has a better matchup against Duke this week, but the Blue Devils are still no push-over on defense as they are only allowing 243 yards and 8.7 points per game so far this season.
Recommendation: Again this week, we find Thomas overpriced considering his matchup and variability in possible production due to the competition for touches in this backfield.
RB – Patrick Skov – 5,800
Analysis: Patrick Skov led the team in carries last week with 18, but was only able to rush the ball for 66 times on the day. Skov’s stats were padded by a couple of late and relatively random touchdown receptions, which inevitably led to his bump in salary from 4,900 to 6,300 this week. Counting on touchdown receptions from a Georgia Tech running back is not a sustainable model by any means.
Recommendation: We would not recommend this Skov this week as he received an unwarranted bump in price from his padded stat line from last week. Granted, Skov should indeed be the lead back in this potent rushing offense; however, his rushing style between the tackles and lack of explosiveness displayed this season do not give us the upside we’d be looking for to recommend a play.
Duke
Team Expected Points: 24.25
QB – Thomas Sirk – 6,800
Analysis: The Blue Devils offense came back to earth after rolling by their two early cupcake opponents of the year as they struggled to move the ball and sustain drives against Northwestern last week. Thomas Sirk tried to shoulder the load, but he could only manage 150 yards as his wide receivers appeared locked down, forcing him to dump off to his running backs for over half of his completions. Sirk comes in at a decent price of 6,800 this week against a Georgia Tech defense that allowed Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer to complete 70% of his passes for 242 yards last week. Even with the defensive downgrade though, Sirk’s struggles to get the ball outside to his receivers give us concern going into what should be a slow paced game with fewer offensive opportunities.
Recommendation: Sirk does not grade out well for us this week, and we do not recommend him in any formats.
RB – Shaun Wilson – 5,700, Shaquille Powell – 6,200
Analysis: Georgia Tech allowed CJ Prosise to run all over them last week for nearly 200 yards, averaging 9.0 yards per carry in his 3-touchdown performance. However this Duke backfield has its question marks, as Shaun Wilson and Shaq Powell evenly split carries last week and were both heavily used in the passing game. We have no indication as to which could receive the lion’s share of carries going forward, so we have to expect a fairly even workload yet again.
Recommendation: Even though each back showed some great upside from last week due to usage in the passing game, we just have to avoid the situation for cash game plays due to the uncertainty of workload split between the two. They are priced relatively low, so either could be worth a tournament flyer with Shaun Wilson preferred due to his savings over Powell.
LSU at Syracuse
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: LSU -24.5
O/U: 46.5
LSU
Team Expected Points: 35.5
RB – Leonard Fournette – 8,700
Analysis: Leonard Fournette has been the fuel powering the LSU offense so far this season, having amassed 387 yards and 6 touchdowns on 47 carries through only 2 games, both of which were against SEC defenses! Fournette is an elite back who should always be in consideration when priced below 10k. Our only concern this week would be lost playing time if things get out of hand quickly this week—however when it comes to LSU’s offensive attack, Fournette has a great chance being right in the middle of every scoring opportunity.
Recommendation: Fournette is a matchup-proof elite running back who is always in play, especially this week since he actually is priced below 9,000.
Syracuse
Team Expected Points: 11
LSU has a top tier defense, and Syracuse has a bottom tier offense that may be relying on a third string quarterback. Enough said.
Indiana at Wake Forest
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Indiana -3.5
O/U: 56
Indiana
Team Expected Points: 29.75
QB – Nate Sudfeld – 8,400
Analysis: Nate Sudfeld has put up consistent numbers so far this year, scoring between 22 and 29 fantasy points in each of his first 3 games. His best performance came last week, as expected against a weak Western Kentucky defense. While Sudfeld’s price dropped slightly, Wake Forest is a much worse matchup for him. Sudfeld will be facing a much slower paced team with a good defense, so we think Indiana will match the pace by running the ball often.
Recommendation: Sudfeld does not grade out well for us this week, and with his limited upside due to the expected touch dominance of Jordan Howard, we would not recommend Sudfeld as a play.
RB – Jordan Howard – 8,500
Analysis: Jordan Howard continued his dominance last week as he rushed for a season-high 203 yards on 31 carries while failing to find the end zone. Howard has not seen the end zone since his 3-touchdown performance in week 1; however he continues to put up solid rushing numbers averaging 6.5 yards per carry for an FBS-leading 507 yards. Wake Forest will be Howard’s first real test up front, as they have a solid defense to content with.
Recommendation: We think Jordan Howard gets a ton of carries this week, but his matchup does present a risk in the safety of his productivity. We can’t fault a tournament play, but for cash games, there are many other less expensive options with better matchups.
WR – Ricky Jones – 6,500
Analysis: Ricky Jones put up another solid performance last week with 5 receptions for 126 yards and a touchdown. He has now had two 100-yard performances year as part of an offense that looks to be very dangerous. He is a favorite target of Sudfeld’s, and we expect him to get close to 100 yards again this week.
Recommendation: Jones grades out as a decent value for his price—he is a mediocre cash play. We think you can afford better options at this price range.
Wake Forest
Team Expected Points: 26.25
QB – Kendall Hinton – 7,100
Analysis: Kendall Hinton is the likely starter in place of injured starter John Wolford. Hinton has quick feet with the ability to gain a ton of yards on the ground, as he showed last week rushing for 101 yards and a couple touchdowns. Indiana has allowed the 7th most passing yards per game this season (due mainly to WKU last week), so the opportunity is there is Hinton can make some slight improvements with his arm.
Recommendation: With his rushing ability on the table, 7,100 is a decent price to take a chance on Hinton in tournaments. We wouldn’t go so far to say he is safe for cash games however, as David Blough represents much more of a value with similar upside in a much higher-total game.
TE – Cam Serigne – 2,500
Analysis: Cam Serigne is yet again one of the cheaper tight ends on the slate priced at only 2,500. Serigne is a heavily targeted option in the limited passing offense of Wake Forest. He has not yet caught a touchdown, but is averaging over 13 yards per catch and just recently racked up his season-high of 5 receptions. Hinton may struggle through the air, so we look for him to rely on his tight end for some easy completions
Recommendation: Cam Serigne is a very solid value tight end play on the slate due to his upside for multiple receptions with a decent yardage total. He is a talented and targeted athlete, bound to score a touchdown at some point---so this very well could be that break-out week.
Northern Illinois at Boston College
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Boston College -5
O/U: 47
Northern Illinois
Team Expected Points: 20.75
Northern Illinois is in a tough spot here facing a very stout Boston College defense. They should not be able to run at all on Boston College, so the only potential play here could be a tournament shot at quarterback Drew Hare or WR1 Kenny Golladay, who had a couple of monster games to start the season before getting shut down against Ohio State for less than 5 fantasy points last week.
Boston College
Team Expected Points: 26.25
We are not a fan of Boston College’s running backs as it seems they have adopted a full committee approach. We are avoiding this offense in what should be a low scoring game.
Maryland at West Virginia
Kickoff: 3:00 PM EST
Spread: West Virginia -17
O/U: 57
Maryland
Team Expected Points: 21.75
We do not expect a great game out of Maryland as they are facing a tough West Virginia defense and already struggling with turnovers, mainly at the quarterback position. Running back Brandon Ross could be worth a play in tournament formats due to his cheap price (4,000) and 15-20 carry potential.
West Virginia
Team Expected Points: 38.25
QB – Skyler Howard – 8,700
Analysis: Skyler Howard has shown that he can put up solid numbers at the quarterback position for West Virginia. In his 3 starts at the end of last season, Howard progressively increased his yardage totals to 326 in their final game. He threw for 8 touchdowns over this 3-game span in addition to rushing for around 120 yards. So far this season, Howard has completed over 70% of his passes as he threw for 622 yards and 5 touchdowns. Facing a very sub-par Maryland defense, Howard has 300+ yard upside with the added bonus of a few rushing yards on top.
Recommendation: Howard has a great matchup against Maryland this week, but he is actually priced fairly accurately. He is the same price as a few other options we think have much higher ceilings, so Howard is not a recommended play.
RB – Wendell Smallwood – 5,400, Russell Shell – 7,500
Analysis: Wendell Smallwood has looked great through the first 2 games this season, averaging 7.1 yards per carry for 184 yards and 3 touchdowns. Smallwood also adds a dimension, as he has shown that he has reliable hands with 4 receptions in each game so far this season. Smallwood looks like a solid candidate over Russell Shell for the starting job, and we project him to be on the field for the lion’s share of snaps against the inept Maryland defense.
Recommendation: Smallwood is the back you want in this offense, and we are projecting him to have a pretty solid day if his usage in the passing game continues. For only 5,400, Smallwood is much very underpriced and be considered in all formats.
Daikel Shorts – 6,500, WR – Shelton Gibson – 5,300, Javon Durante – 5,100
Analysis: Shelton Gibson is the clear deep threat in this West Virginia passing offense. He only has 6 carries on the year, but a total of 211 yards and 2 touchdowns, fueled by 50+ yard catches in each game thus far. Javon Durante has found the end zone in each of his games this year as well, but was used primarily as a possession option in their second game as he caught 7 balls for only 60 yards. Daikel Shorts has put up consistent numbers but failed to find the end zone so far this year.
Recommendation: We project Daikel Shorts to be the go-to guy in this offense, making him a fine stack with Howard or even stand-along play. Shelton Gibson certainly has the upside over Javon Durante due to his usage in downfield plays, but either could be considered as cheap fill-ins for tournament formats.
Rice at Baylor
Kickoff: 3:00 PM EST
Spread: Baylor -34.5
O/U: 74.5
Rice
Team Expected Points: 20.75
Rice does not have a great offense. Driphus Jackson did look good last week throwing for 373 yards and 3 touchdowns, but this was against North Texas. Rice will be playing from behind, and Jackson will be forced to throw, but we have seen him struggler with turnovers and accuracy when the pressure is on, so he will certainly not be a safe play. Dennis Parks (4,500) is extremely cheap given his upside, and the Baylor defense can give up some big plays---so we actually would recommend Parks in tournaments, but not much else from the Rice offense.
Baylor
Team Expected Points: 55.25
While we do think Baylor has some great success this week, their primary offensive weapons are priced out of our range given our low confidence in how long anyone will play in what should be a blowout. We will be avoiding the Baylor offense this week outside Corey Coleman for tournaments due to his huge ceiling, but comparably huge salary. If you have the salary laying around (i.e. you went cheap at QB), feel free to roll with Coleman, but know that we think Roger Lewis for BGSU has a bigger game.
Oklahoma State at Texas
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Oklahoma State -3
O/U: 60.5
Oklahoma State
Team Expected Points: 31.5
QB – Mason Rudolph – 8,100
Analysis: The Texas defense has looked awful this year, allowing 38 points to Notre Dame week 1 and 45 points to Cal in week. They even allowed Rice to put up 28 points and over 450 yards of total offense in Week 2. We were surprised to see Vegas set the spread in this game so close considering the 60-point total. We think Rudolph puts up good numbers on the day, but he shouldn’t be expected to have an extremely high ceiling as we expect the Cowboys to run the ball a fair amount as well.
Recommendation: Had the O/U been 10 points higher with Oklahoma State more of a favorite, we would be more confident that Rudolph could pay off his salary. Rudolph is a safe, but priced up play. We will be avoiding Rudolph in all formats due to his price.
RB – Chris Carson – 7,800
Analysis: Carson is hovering just under 100 yards in our projections, but I actually think he has a shot at exceeding that mark. This Texas defense has looked bad, particularly against the rush as they have allowed the league’s 9th most rushing yards per game at 240. Carson appears to be the clear RB1 for the Cowboys, however he is actually priced up on FanDuel, so we may have to consider his potential to pay off before playing him…
Recommendation: Carson will get starting reps and has a great shot at 100+ yards and a touchdown, however he is priced too high with too little upside for us to really consider. We would rather pay up for a premium back then drop to the 6k salary tier for relief in cash games.
Texas
Team Expected Points: 28.5
QB - Jerrod Heard- 8,300
Analysis: Jerrod Heard continues to impress, as he did not let us down last week with nothing short of a spectacular performance. Heard put up monster fantasy points on the day last week as he threw for 364 yards and rushed for a whopping 163 yards with 3 touchdowns. Heard showed us his running ability, but more importantly showed that he can pass the ball accurately as well with his 65% completion rate and 300+ yard passing, including a 54-yard long completion. We do have to consider who his opponent was last week—as Cal has one of the worst defensive units in football. Heard now receives a much tougher matchup in Oklahoma State, a team that has yet to allow more than 2 touchdowns in a game this season. We think he regresses through the air, but Heard still has the potential to rush for close to 100 yards.
Recommendation: We expect Heard to be playing from behind in this game, and given his playstyle, that only means increased upside for his rushing game as he will be trying to make plays. The bad thing is that Hard took a significant price bump this week, so he would not be recommended in cash game formats because of that much higher price.
RB - Johnathan Gray- 6,300
Analysis: Jonathan Gray had a season-high 11 carries last week, rushing for 46 yards and 2 touchdowns. The bright spot in Gray’s day however came from his usage in the passing game, accounting for 4 receptions for 71 yards as he was an easy target to give Jerrod Heard some confidence. Heard will need all the easy targets he can get this week as they face a much tougher Oklahoma State defense. Jonathan Gray may not quite see 4 catches again this week, but he should definitely be good for a couple dump-offs along with 10+ rushing attempts in what looks to be a relatively high scoring game.
Recommendation: Gray looks to be a tournament play this week, as he has a good salary and could have a great game, but he also could be cannibalized by their dual threat quarterback.
Tennessee at Florida
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Tennessee -1
O/U: 48
Tennessee
Team Expected Points: 24.5
When Tennessee faced off against Florida last year, the final score was 10-9 in what was a sloppy offensive game that Tennessee could not close out. Tennessee’s offense is much improved since then, but we still think this rivalry game will be an absolute grind. Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara should both see carries, while Joshua Dobbs will be doing his best to hold on to the ball and manage the Vols to victory against a perennially tough Florida defense. We have to avoid the Vols in the swamp this week.
Florida
Team Expected Points: 23.5
The Florida offense has been less than impressive this year, barely managing to exceed 200 total yards against Kentucky last week. The Vols have an improved defense, and Florida has shown us no signs of fantasy relevance, thus we are avoiding the Gators in what should be a very low-scoring affair.
Virginia Tech at East Carolina
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: -8.5
O/U: 54
Virginia Tech
Team Expected Points: 32.5
WR – Isaiah Ford – 6,300
Analysis: The Virginia Tech receivers are yet again underpriced this week in what looks to be a solid matchup against a weak East Carolina defense. Isaiah Ford continues to demand the majority of targets in the passing game as he caught 6 for 128 yards last week. Ford has put up consistent fantasy numbers this year and should continue to do so against East Carolina this week.
Recommendation: Both Ford and Hodges should continue to be targeted in this offense as their quarterback tries to limit his mistakes.
TE - Bucky Hodges – 3,500
Analysis: Bucky Hodges finally showed up last week as well with a couple of clutch touchdowns on a very short yardage day for him. Hodges’ floor is extremely low, but for a tight end, his touchdown potential makes for a fairly high ceiling and a solid value on this slate.
Recommendation: Hodges should be considered, but know that he has a very low floor. We really like Serigne for cash games, so only go Hodges for differentiation in tournaments.
East Carolina
Team Expected Points: 24
This East Carolina team find themselves in a very tough matchup this week as they face one of the best defensive secondary units in college football. Virginia Tech is only allowing 150 passing yards per game, including Week 1 where they limited the national champion Buckeyes to only 213 passing yards on the night. East Carolina continues to run the high powered air raid offense, but they just do not have the matchup-proof offensive weapons that they did last season. Both quarterback Blake Kemp and WR1 Isaiah Jones can be considered as a solid contrarian tournament stack due to their pricing, but there is no way we would recommend them for cash game consideration.
Western Michigan at Ohio State
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Ohio State -31.5
O/U: 60.5
Western Michigan
Team Expected Points: 14.75
Western Michigan has some talent on offense, including quarterback Zach Terrell who threw for 365 yards and 2 touchdowns against Michigan State week 1. Let’s also not forget Daniel Braverman, his favorite target. Braverman leads the FBS this season with 40 receptions—that is 10 more (>30%) than any other receiver in football. Braverman is 4th in yardage with 398 and has 3 touchdowns on the season. However this Western Michigan team faces Ohio State’s 5th ranked passing offense, allowing only 119 yards per game—impressive for an undefeated team against which teams have to pass for a chance to keep up. We cannot recommend anyone in this offense, including Braverman. His ownership will be too high as people look only at his recent numbers rather than his difficult matchup this week.
Ohio State
Team Expected Points: 45.75
QB – Cardale Jones – 8,400
Analysis: Cardale is priced up there with a few of the other high potential options on this slate. The Buckeyes have named Cardale the clear starter, despite JT Barrett playing for 2.5 quarters last week. Even with Cardale as the starter, we are uncertain for how long he might remain in, either due to lack of flash or the quick blowout.
Recommendation: 8,400 is steep to pay for Cardale in this situation, even knowing that he is the starter. We would rather have a handful of other quarterbacks in this salary range.
Massachusetts at Notre Dame
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Notre Dame -28.5
O/U: 59
Massachusetts
Team Expected Points: 14.25
The Notre Dame defense has looked sharp lately. We don’t expect many points out of UMass this week, so avoid their offense.
Notre Dame
Team Expected Points: 42.25
RB – CJ Prosise – 8,400
Analysis: CJ Prosise impressed yet again last week, rushing 22 times for 198 yards and 3 touchdowns---that is by far his best performance of the year. Prosise is now up to 7.6 yards per carry on the season with 4 total touchdowns in his 3 games. He has a great matchup this week against Massachusetts, as they have allowed the 15th most rushing yards per game this season.
Recommendation: CJ Prosise projects fairly well, but it is so hard to take him with Fournette and Jordan Howard sitting right there at around the same price. Prosise exposure is fine for multiple lineups, but your safer play should be Fournette at that price tier.
WR – Will Fuller – 7,900
Analysis: Will Fuller had yet another solid outing last week, catching 6 balls for 131 yards and a touchdown. Chris Brown actually garnered more attention than Fuller as he pulled in 8 receptions on the day, but Fuller still remains the primary down-field threat—something we love especially on FanDuel where the reception doesn’t mean as much as huge yardage and touchdowns.
Recommendation: Fuller ended up with good projections this week considering his price. You can’t put him out of play if you have the cap room, but he is by no means a must-play or super-value this week. Despite that, we still will not be fading him—some Fuller exposure is definitely recommended when possible.
Miami Ohio at Western Kentucky
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Western Kentucky -20.5
O/U: 67.5
Miami Ohio
Team Expected Points: 23.5
Miami Ohio does not really have any stand-out offensive talent that we want to consider this week. Drew Kummer could be considered a tournament flyer with very low ownership and solid matchup, but he is far from a logical play due to his lack of overall talent and upside. Our projections do not favor this offense as a whole, so we plan to avoid them.
Western Kentucky
Team Expected Points: 44
QB – Brandon Doughty – 9,600
Analysis: Brandon Doughty shined last week against Indiana, passing for 484 yards and 3 touchdowns on his way to a solid fantasy outing. Doughty finds himself in a Our projections have him around 350 yards and 3 touchdowns, which would be decent but slightly disappointing for this price tier.
Recommendation: Doughty usually represents a very safe play at quarterback, and nothing changes about that this week. However, his he is on the top tier in terms of pricing at 9,600, and we really like some other position players this week. We don’t think you need to pay up this much for quarterback, so avoid Doughty outside of tournaments.
RB – D’Andre Ferby – 7,800
Analysis: With both the starting and backup running backs still out for the Hilltoppers, 3rd stringer D’Andre Ferby will get the start again. Last week against Indiana, Ferby carried the ball 21 times for 58 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ferby’s production was not great as he averaged only 2.8 yards per carry and was only thrown the ball once this game. The only thing Ferby does have going for him is a rather light matchup on the defensive side against a weaker Miami Ohio front seven. Ferby definitely doesn’t have the talent we saw in starter Leon Allen, and his price is way up there this week even considering his good matchup.
Recommendation: Ferby is priced too high for us to touch, as he is not that talented of a back. We do think Western Kentucky will run the ball since they should be able to, but Ferby is just too expensive.
TE – Tyler Higbee – 3,700
Analysis: Tyler Higbee saw plenty of looks yet last week, racking up a team high 11 receptions for 109 yards. Higbee leads the team in both receptions and yards this year with 11 for 190. Higbee is just putting up astounding numbers for a tight end, making us continue to ask ourselves when he will naturally regress.
Recommendation: Higbee is the top priced tight end on the slate for good reason. If you can find a way to fit him in, he represents a great play in both cash and tournament lineups. He has the highest upside of any tight end on the slate, hands down. However, we still would recommend Cam Serigne in cash games only due to his bottom barrel price and steady production.
TCU at Texas Tech
Kickoff: 4:45 PM EST
Spread: TCU -6.5
O/U: 80.5
TCU
Team Expected Points: 43.5
As you might expect from the numbers above, this game is absolute fantasy gold. With so many players to consider here, we are not even going to list out the positions because literally everyone can be in play. Trevone Boykin is the highest price quarterback for good reason, as he could very easily put up 50+ fantasy points on this slate. Aaron Green provides you with decent value even at his price tier, and both Josh Doctson and Kolby Listenbee could go off at any time.
Cash Game: QB Trevone Boykin (10,300), RB Aaron Green (8,300)
GPP: QB Trevone Boykin (10,300), RB Aaron Green (8,300), WR Josh Doctson (8,400), WR Kolby Listenbee (6,000)
Texas Tech
Team Expected Points: 36.25
We like quite a few Red Raiders in this game, as they are priced relatively lower than those from TCU. Patrick Mahomes is an extremely safe play on this slate. While does not have the rushing upside of Boykin, Mahomes can put up 400+ passing yards and 4 touchdowns before you know it. Jakeem Grant is the top receiver in this offense, as he leads the team with 21 receptions but has only found the end zone once this year. We have our eye on DeAndre Washington at running back as well. Washington is their RB1, and despite only receiving around 12 carries per game, Washington has been extremely effective averaging 8 yards per carry in addition to catching a few passes per game. His price of 6,900 is slightly disappointing, but he still is in consideration.
Cash Game: QB Patrick Mahomes (8,900), WR Jakeem Grant (6,900)
GPP: QB Patrick Mahomes (8,900), WR Jakeem Grant (6,900), RB Deandre Washington (6,900), WR Devin Lauderdale (5,800)
California at Washington
Kickoff: 4:00 PM EST
Spread: California -4.5
O/U: 61
California
Team Expected Points: 32.75
RB - Vic Enwere – 4,500
Analysis: Daniel Lasco has not practiced yet this week, so his status for this game is very much still in question. This leaves Vic Enwere still on our radar as an excellent value play this week for Cal. Enwere filled in nicely last week, rushing for 73 yards and 2 touchdowns on 16 carries, which was more than enough to pay for his minimum salary last week. Washington has looked great against the pass this year, so expect for Cal to try and get things going on the ground in case they struggle to pass the ball.
Recommendation: Enwere is still at minimum salary, and he yet again has a solid chance at hitting value if Lasco is out—Enwere is a great punt play for all formats pending Lasco’s status..
QB – Jared Goff – 8,900
Analysis: Jared Goff has put up consistent numbers this season, scoring between 32 and 26 fantasy points in all 3 games so far. This consistency is great, his scores are way too low for what you are forced to pay. Goff’s price has been trending down, and it is bumped another 500 lower this week. That bump down in salary is certainly warranted, as Goff is facing a Washington defense that has yet to allow a single passing touchdown this season.
Recommendation: Goff is becoming a more palatable play, but his matchup this week is tough. Avoid Goff due to salary and bad matchup this week.
TE – Stephen Anderson – 3,500
Analysis: Stephen Anderson is actually Cal’s second best receiver on the year in terms of yardage over his last 2 starts. While Anderson has not found the end zone, he has accounted for 8 receptions and nearly 100 yards on the year. Anderson was a big part of their game plan at Texas last week, so we could see him pop up again in this matchup against Washington.
Recommendation: Anderson has some upside, but we would only recommend for tournaments as Cam Serigne is your guy at tight end in cash games.
Washington
Team Expected Points: 28.25
QB – Jake Browning – 6,800
Analysis: The Cal defense is one we have perennially targeted in years past, and we do not see that changing any time soon. Last week against what has been a struggling Texas offense, Cal allowed Jerrod Heard to throw for over 350 yards and rush for an astounding 163 yards on the day. This defense has its holes, and we think Jake Browning could have a solid chance at exposing them. Browning will not get you anything on the ground, but he has averaged over 280 yards per game this season with 5 touchdowns and a 66% completion rate. Browning can spread it around to multiple guys in the passing game, and his numbers have only been improving so far this season.
Recommendation: We expect Browning to throw for over 300 yards and at least a couple of touchdowns this week. He should be a rather popular target against the historically weak Cal defense—playable in all formats.
