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Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 11-28-15, 12:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 14 (28 teams)
Ohio State at Michigan
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: EVEN
O/U: 45
This game has very little fantasy relevance with such a low O/U and dominant defensive teams, so we would recommend sitting back and watching what should be one of the best games of the week.
Clemson at South Carolina
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: Clemson -17
O/U: 55
Clemson
Team Expected Points: 36
QB – Deshaun Watson – 10,100
Analysis: With his continued fantasy dominance, Deshaun Watson remains one of the top plays on any slate at the quarterback position. Watson has passed for over 340 yards and at least 2 touchdowns in 3 of his last 4 games while rushing for over 100 yards in 2 of those games. Watson should be in a good spot for another solid game facing a South Carolina team that seems to have absolutely quit on the season after their embarrassing loss to the Citadel last week.
Recommendation: Watson is pricey, but his floor should be at least 2 times his salary with a ceiling as high as any other player on the slate. Watson should be a very safe play in cash games or tournaments.
RB – Wayne Gallman – 6,800
Analysis: Gallman is expected to play after missing their last game with an ankle injury. Prior to last week, Gallman had scored in 4 straight games and likely would have eclipsed 100 yards for a 4th straight game as well if not for his injury. Clemson should easily pull ahead in this game, which bodes well for Gallman to have a solid chance at 100 yards again. With his touchdown upside along with a few receptions, we see Gallman having a solid day.
Recommendation: Gallman is priced fairly considering his upside. He is a viable play in all formats, but we are projecting Sony Michel to have a slightly better day at this same price if you are picking between the two.
South Carolina
Team Expected Points: 19
The Gamecocks want this season to be over as they enter their last game against the #1 team in the country with a 3-8 record on the heels of an embarrassing loss to the Citadel last week—a game in which South Carolina entered as a 22-point favorite. Outside of a contrarian GPP play of WR Pharoh Cooper (6,900) who exploded last week, we are avoiding the Gamecocks offense.
Virginia Tech at Virginia
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: Virginia Tech -3
O/U: 51
Virginia Tech
Team Expected Points: 27
RB – Travon McMillian – 7,400
Analysis: McMillian had his worst outing of the season (since becoming the starter) last week as he carried 21 times for only 80 yards and no touchdowns. The Hokies focused more on their passing attack last week while trying to keep pace with North Carolina. We see McMillian remaining a focal point of this offense however, as he should still be in store for 20+ carries this week against Virginia.
Recommendation: McMillian has a high floor, but we like a number of other guys at a lower price point this week.
Virginia
Team Expected Points: 24
RB – Taquan Mizzell – 7,100
Recommendation: Mizzell remains a very high floor play at running back for Virginia. In his last 6 games, Mizzell has tallied at last 13 carries and 5 receptions per game. His fantasy upside is highly dependent on his ability to get into the end zone, but Mizzell has had one of the most consistent floors for a player in his price range all season.
Analysis: In a tough spot against Virginia Tech’s defense, Mizzell falls onto our radar as a cash game only play to which we would want only minimal exposure.
Iowa State at West Virginia
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: West Virginia -14
O/U: 61
Iowa State
Team Expected Points: 23.5
QB – Joel Lanning – 7,800
Analysis: Joel Lanning for Iowa State is coming off his best 2 games of the year as he’s showcased his legs to the tune of 173 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. While Lanning did fumble 4 times last week, he still remains the starter and should be forced to throw more against West Virginia as the Cyclones come in as 2-touchdown underdogs.
Recommendation: Lanning is a GPP only play due to his upside from the rushing game. His floor is low however as West Virginia has a quality defense. He will have a very low ownership in all formats.
West Virginia
Team Expected Points: 37.5
QB – Skyler Howard – 7,500
Analysis: West Virginia has decisively committed to their running game in recent weeks, and while we would think that limits Skyler Howard, he showed us last week that he too can be involved in that rushing attack with 129 rushing yards and a touchdown from 9 attempts. Howard has passed for less than 150 yards in each of the last 3 weeks, but he has rushed for a touchdown in each of those games as well.
Recommendation: Facing a below average Iowa State defense with a 60+ point total, Howard is certainly in play. On a one-quarterback site, we could only endorse the play in tournament formats, as he is not as safe as other options to choose from.
SMU at Memphis
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: Memphis -21
O/U: 73
SMU
Team Expected Points: 25.75
QB – Matt Davis – 7,700
Analysis: This matchup is solid for Matt Davis, as Memphis has been struggling against the pass all season allowing nearly 300 passing yards per game. The Tigers have allowed over 30 points in each of their last 3 games, and this O/U is one of the highest on the slate. Davis is a dual threat option who has 100+ rushing yard upside and has scored a touchdown in each of his last 3 games. He doesn’t have a ton of weapons around him, but he should be required to stay involved as SMU will be playing from behind here.
Recommendation: While Davis has some solid upside, we are projecting a number of other cheaper quarterbacks with similar or more upside. However, we could see a tournament stack of Davis along with WR Courtland Sutton (5,000).
Memphis
Team Expected Points: 47.25
QB – Paxton Lynch – 7,800
Analysis: Lynch has really struggled in recent weeks as Memphis has lost 3 in a row after starting the season 8-0. Lynch has now failed to exceed 300 passing yards in each of his last 2 games, and he was held without a touchdown last week for the first time all season. His matchups in recent weeks have been tough, but we expect him to bounce back in a huge way this week against the very porous SMU defense allowing a whopping 504 yards and 44.1 points per game. SMU is known for allowing huge scores to opposing offenses, and we have seen Memphis run up the scoreboard on multiple occasions this year. Lynch is playing for his pride and draft stock here, so we expect a big performance.
Recommendation: We project Lynch to be one of the higher scoring quarterbacks on the slate. His price is surprisingly low, due in part to his recent lackluster performances. You should feel safe rolling with Lynch in all formats, especially cash games due to his low price and high projected ownership.
TE – Alan Cross – 2,400
Analysis: Alan Cross continues to be involved in the Memphis passing game as he hauled in a couple of receptions last week in their tough matchup against Temple. The Memphis offense as a whole did not look good, and we saw that in Cross-’s stat line as he only accounted for 5 yards. We have seen Cross used in the red zone this season as he has 3 touchdowns, and he is typically a good bet for at least 2-3 receptions and 30 yards.
Recommendation: Cross’s salary is low here at the tight end position. He should be a solid punt in any format as he grades out as our best value in this great matchup.
Georgia at Georgia Tech
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: Georgia -5
O/U: 47.5
Georgia
Team Expected Points: 26.25
RB - Sony Michel – 6,800
Analysis: Sony Michel continues to be fed carries in this offense as he now has 22+ attempts in 5 of his last 6 games started. Michel had a solid outing last week against Georgia State with 132 yards and a touchdown, but we honestly expected more from him with as many carries he received in that very solid matchup. Georgia Tech’s rushing defense has been OK this season, but Michel should still have a good chance at over 100 yards with his utilization.
Recommendation: Michel is priced down here, and for good cause as he has mostly underperformed his potential given the huge opportunity he has been afforded in this offense. The price alone does put Michel in play due to his workload, and he has a decent matchup in which we wouldn’t be surprised to see 25+ carries. Feel free to play him in any format.
Georgia Tech
Team Expected Points: 21.25
As is the case for this entire season, we will again fade the Georgia Tech offense as consistent production from any 1 player just cannot be predicted nor expected.
Louisville at Kentucky
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: 53.5
O/U: Louisville -4
Louisville
Team Expected Points: 28.75
With Coach Petrino having still refused to name a starting quarterback, it is tough to feel good about rolling with anyone from this game in your cash lineups. However, when it comes to tournaments, we are really eyeing a cheap stack of both QB Lamar Jackson (6,600) and WR Jamari Staples (5,600). Jackson is most likely to receive the start; he came in to finish the game last week and is clearly the most explosive option considering his rushing ability. Staples has absolutely went off in a few games this season, including his last one where he had a huge stat line of 9 receptions, 194 yards, and 1 touchdown. This stack could pay huge dividends in a tournament, but it is rather risky in a cash game situation.
Kentucky
Team Expected Points: 24.75
Until last week, Kentucky has really struggled on offense as they failed to exceed 3 touchdowns in each of those 4 games. They had a very soft matchup last week against Charlotte, but we expect a characteristic performance this week against Louisville. The only option worth considering would be RB Stanley Boom Williams (6,300) as a contrarian tournament play.
Colorado at Utah
Kickoff: 2:30PM EST
Spread: Utah -16.5
O/U: 49.5
Colorado
Team Expected Points: 16.5
Outside of WR Nelson Spruce (6,300) in a tournament setting, we see no viable plays for Colorado as they face a tough defense in Utah.
Utah
Team Expected Points: 33
RB – Joseph Williams – 6,000
Analysis: Joseph Williams performed just as we may have expected last week while filling in for Devontae Booker. Williams was afforded a substantial workload as he rushed 26 times for 121 yards while hauling in 4 receptions for another 31 yards. While he did not find the end zone as Utah was stifled by UCLA, his workload alone should spell upside as Williams gets a softer matchup against a Cal defense allowing over 200 rushing yards per game.
Recommendation: Williams has understandably had a price correction this week, but we still have him as a solid value worth consideration in all formats as he sits atop our projections.
Penn State at Michigan State
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Michigan State -10.5
O/U: 46.5
Penn State
Team Expected Points: 18
We have found very little fantasy relevance in Penn State’s offense this season, and that is no different here in their last game of the regular season.
Michigan State
Team Expected Points: 28.5
Michigan State is in a tough matchup here against Penn State’s top defense. We would not recommend taking this risk—fade the Spartans as this game should be ugly.
Alabama at Auburn
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Alabama -14
O/U: 48.5
Alabama
Team Expected Points: 31.25
WR – Calvin Ridley – 5,300
Analysis: Ridley is Alabama’s top receiver on the year with 61 receptions for just over 700 yards. While Alabama is not at all known for a prolific passing attack this year, Ridley is heavily utilized as he has seen 5 or more receptions in each of his last 6 games, with 7 or more receptions in 4 of those. We expect Derrick Henry to dominate the Crimson Tide’s offense, but if Ridley can sneak into the end zone along with his standard 5-7 receptions for 50-70 yards, he will make a solid play at this price.
Recommendation: Ridley is one of our best values at this tough wide receiver position. Auburn’s defense is nothing to be afraid of, so Ridley will be a good play in all formats.
Auburn
Team Expected Points: 17.25
It would be rather silly to consider anyone on the Tigers offense facing Alabama. Fade it.
Northwestern at Illinois
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Northwestern -3.5
O/U: 41
Northwestern
Team Expected Points: 21.25
RB – Justin Jackson – 6,600
Analysis: Justin Jackson has been a workhorse for this entire season as he comes into their final regular season game averaging nearly 24 carries and over 100 yards per game. Jackson now has 3 straight 100+ yard games and is coming off a season-high 35 carries in their last outing against Wisconsin. The issue with Jackson all season though has been his inability to find the end zone. Over 12 games this year, Jackson has only scored 3 times. His upside is certainly a concern, but he floor should be there in this decent matchup where we expect heavy utilization once again.
Recommendation: Justin Jackson is a high floor, low ceiling play as he should have a good shot at 100+ rushing yards, but an unlikely chance at multiple touchdowns. He does have 2 of his 3 touchdowns this year in his last 2 games, so the trend very well could continue. Use Jackson sparingly in cash games only.
Illinois
Team Expected Points: 18.75
We aren’t interested in anyone from Illinois as their salaries aren’t low enough to consider in this difficult matchup.
North Carolina at NC State
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: North Carolina -6
O/U: 65
North Carolina
Team Expected Points: 35.25
While North Carolina has had an extremely explosive offense this season led by QB Marquise Williams (9,400), we see the Tar Heels having more of a struggle than they might anticipate as they visit NC State in the last regular season game of the year. RB Elijah Hood (7,300) has rushed for over 100 yards in each of his last 2 games with 6 touchdowns over his last 3 outings. However, his price this week makes it difficult to recommend Hood against a talented NC State run defense. I was surprised to see North Carolina only favored by only 6 points in this game, and with the offense as priced up as they are in this relatively tough defensive matchup, we will have to avoid most exposure outside of tournaments.
NC State
Team Expected Points: 29.25
The NC State offense is in shambles after losing Matt Dayes at running back. QB Jacoby Brissett (6,800) is continuing to do what he can with his passing and rushing ability, although we have only seen Brissett rush over 40 yards once this season. TE Jaylen Samuels (5,300) is heavily involved in both side of the offense and continues to score a touchdown in almost every game, but his salary at the tight end position makes him tough to roster considering the values to be had there. While Brissett is a cheap option, we can’t endorse here as the upside is minimal.
UCLA at USC
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: UCLA -3.5
O/U: 63
UCLA
Team Expected Points: 33.25
With the Trojans rushing defense ranked 36th on the season, we would not recommend trusting UCLA’s main running backs in this game. RB Paul Perkins (7,100) will always have a role to play in tournament lineups as his upside is enormous, but we would not recommend significant exposure. WR Jordan Payton (6,300) had another solid game last week with 7 receptions and 105 yards, but he failed to find the end zone for the 5th straight game. USC has a bad passing defense ranked 107th in yards per game, so Payton should have some yardage upside. While Payton is in consideration for cash games, he is a definite risk for tournaments due to his lack of touchdowns.
USC
WR - Juju Smith – 7,200
Analysis: Juju Smith is probable to play this week after suffering multiple minor injuries in last week’s game against Oregon. Smith did fail to find the end zone for only the 3rd times this year was held to a season low 3 receptions last week against Cal, but he did finish the game with 66 yards and a touchdown to salvage some fantasy points on the day. This week Smith sees a downgrade in matchup as they are up against UCLA’s 43rd ranked passing defense.
Recommendation: The wide receiver position is rough on this slate, so paying up for one of the safer plays in Smith is definitely a good option in your cash games.
Wisconsin at Minnesota
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Wisconsin -2.5
O/U: 43
We have a very low O/U here in a game between a couple of very solid defenses that are stingy when it comes to scoring touchdowns. With limited fantasy standouts on either team regardless of matchup, we are definitely electing to fade this one altogether.