Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 11-21-15, 12:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 15 (30 teams)
Indiana at Maryland
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: Maryland -2.5
O/U: 64
Indiana
Team Expected Points: 30.75
WR – Ricky Jones – 4,000, Simmie Cobbs – 3,700
Analysis: Indiana has had a rough stretch of opponents as they have faced top tier defenses in 5 of their last 6 games. For that reason, we have been fading them for a while, however this week Indiana should see some relief as they face a 2-8 Maryland team with an 82nd ranked pass defense. Both Ricky Jones and Simmie Cobbs come in at cheap salaries and should offer you with some upside in this matchup with a relatively high total and close spread. Jones has at least 4 receptions in each of his last 5 matchups while Cobbs has surpassed 80 yards with at least 4 receptions in 3 of his last 4. We see production increasing here for both of them.
Recommendation: Jones and Cobbs are both cheap options to consider, with Cobbs projecting as the better value this week. We would use Cobbs more so in a cash games
RB – Jordan Howard – 8,000
Analysis: Prior to injury this season, Howard was one of the most dominant backs in football with 150+ rushing yards in each of his first 4 games. Since returning to full health, we have only seen Howard rush for his season high 238 yards and 2 touchdowns against one of the best rushing defenses in football last week in Michigan. This was a monstrous performance padded by a couple of overtimes as Howard was leaned heavily upon in Indiana’s offensive attack. His matchup certainly is better this week against a mediocre Maryland defense; however, his price has also risen substantially making Howard a top tiered salary running back.
Recommendation: Howard has one of the highest ceilings and floors on the slate with a solid shot to rush for 100+ yards and a touchdown. He is an elite talent with a solid matchup, playable in all formats.
Maryland
Team Expected Points: 33.25
QB – Perry Hills – 6,500
Analysis: While the Maryland offense has been far from explosive as they rank 115th in the country, the matchup for Perry Hills could not be much better facing a historically bad Indiana defense allowing over 340 passing yards per game to teams that are not at all known for their prolific passing attacks. Hills has only crossed the 200 passing yard mark once this season, but he has routinely shown his ability to make plays on the ground with 4 games above 90 rushing yards, including a 170-yard explosion against Ohio State.
Recommendation: Hills has significant upside in this matchup, and his price is very low. He makes for a great QB2 option in all formats as we project him as a top value.
Memphis at Temple
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: Memphis -1.5
O/U: 58.5
Memphis
Team Expected Points: 30
Memphis will face a test here against Temple’s defense that has played well all season. With the Tigers coming off back to back losses along with inconsistent play from their position players, we are not encouraged by this situation despite the high total and close spread. QB Paxton Lynch (8,100) has been your main play for the Tigers all season, but there are a number of other options that we’d rather consider near his price range.
Temple
Team Expected Points: 28.5
WR – Robby Anderson – 4,500
Analysis: Robby Anderson is the top receiving option for the Owls this season, and his matchup is excellent against Memphis’s 118th ranked passing defense. Anderson only has one huge game of the season, and in this balanced offense, we do not expect him to offer a ton of upside. However, his usage should see an uptick in this premium matchup in which Temple should need to pass to keep it close.
Recommendation: We see Anderson as a good value option to save salary on your cash game rosters. He does not have the upside needed for tournament consideration.
QB – PJ Walker – 6,300
Analysis: This game has a higher than average O/U in a game we expect to be relatively fast paces. PJ Walker has shown some flashes this season, but overall he has been rather lackluster in terms of fantasy production. However, he has rushed for at least 28 yards in each of his last 3 games, while failing to exceed 20 rushing yards in any other games this season. Walker is facing a horrible Memphis pass defense, so he certainly can be on the radar at this price.
Recommendation: If you are looking for a cheap QB2 to roll with in a tournament, Walker is an option worth considering. We would not tough him in cash games.
Michigan at Penn State
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: Michigan -4
O/U: 42.5
Michigan
Team Expected Points: 23.25
This game should be a defensive struggle as it features 2 of the nation’s top defensive units. Michigan has no significant upside in this matchup, and with the low O/U we will certainly be avoiding the Wolverines.
Penn State
Team Expected Points: 19.25
We are fading Penn State’s 104th ranked offense against Michigan’s elite defense.
Purdue at Iowa
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: Iowa -23
O/U: 57.5
Purdue
Team Expected Points: 18.75
Purdue has one of the worst offenses in football with minimal stand-out fantasy options. In a difficult matchup with Iowa’s 15th ranked defense, we will elect to avoid the Boilermakers.
Iowa
Team Expected Points: 41.25
RB – Leshun Daniels Jr – 5,400
Analysis: Junior running back Leshun Daniels Jr has most certainly made the best out of what could have been a bad situation for Iowa when they lost red hot running back Jordan Canzeri. Daniels has been extremely effective over the last 3 weeks, rushing 82 times for 333 yards and 6 touchdowns, including an epic 3-touchdown 195-yard performance last week against Minnesota with Canzeri actually playing alongside him. This week will be a tough situation with both backs presumably healthy, but Leshun Daniels Jr clearly has the hot hand and should be in line for a solid performance against Purdue’s 114th ranked rushing defense.
Recommendation: We see Daniels as a tournament play due to the uncertainty of what role Jordan Canzeri will play. If Daniels remains hot, his ceiling is as high as it gets. If Canzeri carves out former role in this offense, Daniels could be very limited.
North Carolina at Virginia Tech
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: North Carolina -5
O/U: 61.5
North Carolina
Team Expected Points: 33.25
QB – Marquise Williams – 8,400
Analysis: Marquise Williams has put up huge fantasy numbers in polar opposite ways over the past 2 weeks. After passing for nearly 500 yards and 4 touchdowns against Miami, Williams followed up last week with a mere 105 passing yards and 1 touchdown but 101 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns. Williams has proven his upside on multiple occasions this season, but he finds himself in a difficult matchup on the road against a surging Virginia Tech team with fire in their bellies after winning 2 straight as the Hokies play to become bowl eligible.
Recommendation: Williams should be considered a contrarian tournament play this week as he has a far less favorable matchup than many of his counterparts in this top salary tier. We will pass over Williams in most situations this week.
Virginia Tech
Team Expected Points: 28.25
RB - Travon McMillian – 7,600
Analysis: Travon McMillian continues to impress as he has rushed over 100 yards in 3 straight starts with 4 touchdowns in that stretch. McMillian is the only running back this season to rush for over 100 yards against Boston College’s elite defensive front—a feat that even Dalvin Cook could not accomplish. McMillian is set up for another big week in his best matchup of the season against an atrocious North Carolina rushing defense allowing 206 rushing yards per game (110th overall).
Recommendation: McMillian will have a very solid chance of crossing 100 yards with multiple touchdowns as we expect Virginia Tech do all that they can to keep the ball away from the Tar Heels offense. McMillian is a great option to consider in all formats and one of our top higher-priced plays at the position.
Georgia Tech at Miami
Kickoff: 12:30PM EST
Spread: Georgia Tech -2.5
O/U: 55.5
Georgia Tech
Team Expected Points: 29
We can’t trust the Yellow Jackets offense. Even in a nice matchup against Miami, we are avoiding them since anyone could show up with a mediocre game as we’ve seen all season from this team.
Miami
Team Expected Points: 26.5
RB – Joseph Yearby – 6,100
Analysis: Yearby had a solid outing last week against North Carolina’s atrocious rushing defense as he averaged his best yards per carry (5.7) in the past 6 weeks. Yearby also had his best receiving game of the season with 4 catches for 79 total yards. We still have yet to see the Yearby from earlier in the season, as he has yet to break 100 yards since Week 4 and only has 1 touchdown in his past 6 outings. With Mark Walton solidified in the goal line / short yardage role, Yearby will be tough to consider going forward.
Recommendation: Yearby makes for a tough play here due to his lack of recent production and touchdown upside. Even against a soft Georgia Tech defense, we will have to avoid Yearby in favor of other safer options.
Western Kentucky at Florida International
Kickoff: 2:30PM EST
Spread: Western Kentucky -16.5
O/U: 66
Western Kentucky
Team Expected Points: 41.25
Western Kentucky comes in with the highest team expected points on this slate, making their offense one of the safer and more popular plays expected. QB Brandon Doughty (8,800) is your top priced quarterback on the slate as he has shown to be one of the most consistent options under center this season with an FBS-4th 3590 total passing yards and an FBS leading 72.7% completion rate. While Doughty has cooled down in the yardage department over the past couple of weeks, he has been a touchdown machine with at least 3 passing touchdowns per game over his past 8 outings. Doughty has spread the ball around to a number of receiving options as 5 players have at least 30 receptions, 400 yards, and 2 touchdowns so far this season.
WR Taywan Taylor (6,200) leads the pack with over 1000 yards and 13 touchdowns this season. Taylor has missed the end zone in only 2 games this season and has over 100 yards in half of his outings. While the Hilltoppers do spread it around, Taylor has been one of their best options.
Recommendation: Doughty is as usual a very safe quarterback option in play everywhere, however for this slate, we don’t feel it necessary to pay up for him considering some of the solid values such as Soloman or Barrett. While Taywan Taylor has cooled down in the past couple of weeks, Taylor looks to be your best bet for consistent involvement among the crowd of viable receiving options. All receivers are in play, but Taylor is our pick to put up the best fantasy numbers as one of our top receivers on this slate.
Florida International
Team Expected Points: 24.75
RB – Alex Gardner – 4,700
Analysis: Prior to last week, Alex Gardner had been having a pretty solid season averaging around 110 total yards and 5 receptions per game with a touchdown in 7 of his 10 outings. His 17 carries per game and consistent usage in the passing game yielded very consistent fantasy results, until he met the Thundering Hurd last week. Gardner absolutely imploded to put up his worst performance of the year gaining only 15 total yards as his team was blown out 52-0. This was FIU’s most lopsided loss to date, so we could easily chalk up Gardner’s dud to that fact. Gardner has a solid matchup against the Hilltoppers weak defense, however Western Kentucky’s high octane offensive attack means there is most certainly a chance that another blowout is on the horizon for Gardner’s squad.
Recommendation: Gardner grades out as a very solid value at this cheap salary given the role he has played in this offense to date, but he is a very risky play to be used in GPP’s only since this game could get out of hand quickly which may limit his usage as we saw last week.
Michigan State at Ohio State
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Ohio State -13.5
O/U: 53
Michigan State
Team Expected Points: 20
Michigan State has some talent on offense, including top quarterback prospect QB Connor Cook (6,300) and WR Aaron Burbridge (6,600). However, they are in a very tough spot against an elite Ohio State defense and Cook has been banged up recently due to the poor play we have seen by their offensive line. We will be avoiding the Spartan studs, but one guy you can consider despite the matchup is WR MacGarrett Kings Jr. (4,100). Kings is a cheap play with touchdown upside, and while he is far a safe play, the low ownership and salary makes him an option worth considering in tournaments.
Ohio State
Team Expected Points: 33.5
QB – JT Barrett – 7,800
Analysis: Barrett has played relatively well since taking over the starting job for the Buckeyes, and this game against Michigan State is their most important one yet. Barrett is on a big stage here against a defense that has a ton of name recognition, but has not lived up to it with their 86th ranked passing defense that allowed both Indiana and Nebraska to blow them up. Barrett can hurt you in all facets of the game as he has 6 passing and 8 rushing touchdowns in his last 4 games played. While the O/U is not nearly where we’d like it to be, we expect Ohio State to play as hard as they have all season here with Barrett playing a large role in that effort.
Recommendation: Barrett has a ton of upside, but with Heisman hopeful Ezekiel Elliott on the field, his floor is always a big lower than we’d like to see it. Barrett can be considered in all formats as he is cheaper than the other elite quarterback options, however we would lean more towards tournament usage due to the likely risk of Elliott running wild.
Arizona at Arizona State
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Arizona State -7.5
O/U: 68.5
Arizona
Team Expected Points: 30.5
QB - Anu Solomon- 6,200, Jerrard Randall – 6,000
Analysis: Anu Soloman just can’t seem to stay healthy this season as he was banged up yet again last week with a head injury forcing him to leave in the 4th quarter. Despite the injury however, Soloman posted big numbers as he passed for 277 yards and 2 touchdowns while rushing for a season high 86 yards and 1 touchdown. We will be monitoring his status up until game time, but if Soloman is deemed good to go, he has a premium matchup against Arizona State’s 122nd ranked pass defense allowing nearly 300 passing yards per game. If Soloman is ruled out, you will have to consider Jerrard Randall due purely to the matchup upside.
Recommendation: Anu Solomon is one of our top quarterback plays of the week. If he is given the green light to start going into Saturday, Soloman is an excellent option in all formats. If Soloman is ruled out, Randall will be a decent option but with much less upside than Soloman as Arizona State has been much more effective against the run than the pass.
Arizona State
Team Expected Points: 38
RB – Demario Richard – 7,000, Kalen Ballage – 5,200
Analysis: Demario Richard has played a solid role in Arizona State’s offense this season, however we saw him regress a bit last week against Washington as Richard put up his 2nd lowest rushing total of the year with only 35 yards on 14 carries and 0 touchdowns while watching counterpart RB Kalen Ballage rush for 92 yards and 2 touchdowns from only 11 carries. Ballage’s presence is certainly a threat to Richard’s upside as Ballage has seen double digit carries in 6 straight games with as many touchdowns (4) as Richard in that stretch.
Recommendation: With the emergence and productivity of Ballage in recent weeks, Richard becomes a tough play. Richard does have a great matchup though, so tournament consideration is well within reason as he still remains the clear starting running back with significant multi-reception upside. Ballage is a tournament-only option considering the uncertainty around his role.
Houston at Connecticut
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Houston -9.5
O/U: 49
Houston
Team Expected Points: 29.25
QB - Greg Ward Jr. - 8,300, Kyle Postma – 6,300
Analysis: Many of you were likely quite frustrated last week as Greg Ward Jr. left last week’s game very early from an ankle injury, failing to even score 1 fantasy point. What makes that situation even more frustrating in hindsight is that reports indicate he could have played in the 2nd half if needed. Ward is listed as questionable coming into the matchup against Connecticut, so you will need to closely monitor his status. Ward’s upside comes from his ability to run, so we will want some assurances of his health before feeling comfortable rolling him out at this price. If Ward is out, Kyle Postma will be in for his first career start. Postma would be a very popular play in this situation at his salary, but we are not buying it as we would expect him to struggle against a much tougher UConn defense than what he saw from Memphis last week.
Recommendation: If 100% healthy, Greg Ward is one of the best option on this slate. But let’s be realistic, we do not expect to be that comfortable with Ward’s health, making him a risky play even if he is announced the starter—especially considering his matchup and relatively sloppier play in recent weeks. Postma should be popular if we hear that Ward is out, and given this offensive system and Postma’s ability to run, he could be considered as a QB2 in cash games. We would not however consider Postma in tournaments as he shouldn’t have a high ceiling due to this matchup and his lack of starting experience.
RB - Kenneth Farrow - 6,400
Analysis: As we said last week, Kenneth Farrow is a volume running back who is going to find the end zone on a regular basis. While his volume was lacking with a season-low 10 rush attempts, Farrow did find the end zone twice for his 4th multi-touchdown game of the season. With Ward potentially limited or out, we would expect the game plan to center more around Farrow despite the tricky matchup against UConn’s 41st ranked defense. He should see both volume and touchdown opportunities here.
Recommendation: While Farrow may be in for more work this week, we are apprehensive about paying for him here with some of the other values to be found. Farrow has GPP value, but we would fade him outside of those formats.
Connecticut
Team Expected Points: 19.75
RB – Arkeel Newsome – 4,900
Analysis: Arkeel Newsome is a gem hidden behind what is a very bad UConn offense ranked 114th in the country. Newsome is a starting running back with high utilization in both facets of this offense, as he has accounted for twice as many total yards and touchdowns as any other player on the Huskies squad. Newsome is averaging nearly 4 receptions and 100 total yards per game this season with over 20 rush attempts in each of his last 2 games. In addition to this usage on offense, Newsome is also heavily involved in the Huskies special teams as their kick / punt returner—only adding to his already huge upside.
Recommendation: Newsome is our top value running back of the day. While the matchup is not the best from a rushing perspective, Newsome can score fantasy points in a variety of ways and should be in a good spot for production at home as they try to knock off the undefeated Cougars. Newsome is good to go in all formats.
LSU at Ole Miss
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Ole Miss -6.5
O/U: 56
LSU
Team Expected Points: 24.75
WR – Malachi Dupre - 4,200, Travin Dural – 3,900
Analysis: Malachi Dupre had a huge game last week against a bad Arkansas secondary as he finished with 109 yards and a touchdown from a season-high 8 receptions. Dupre now has caught at least 1 touchdown pass with 70+ yards in 4 of his last 5 games. He is proving to be a big part of LSU’s passing game, and should be set up for a solid performance again this week. The Ole Miss defense is ranked 92nd against the pass as their focus has been more on stopping the run rather than allowing big plays through the air. This defensive strategy led to a season high 53 points allowed in their last game against Arkansas, so we certainly can see room for points to be scored here. While Travin Dural remains a big option for LSU despite his stinker last week, Dupre is showing big play upside that has to be considered.
Recommendation: Dupre should be a good punt play in both cash and tournament formats as LSU may need to pass here if playing from behind. Dural had a rough outing last week, so his ownership levels should be down making him more of a tournament option.
Ole Miss
Team Expected Points: 31.25
The Rebels face a tough test this week against LSU’s solid defense. QB Chad Kelly (6,600) is coming off an epic 60+ fantasy point performance in his last game against Arkansas, but we expect significant regression against a much better defense this week. Kelly rarely rushes for more than 50 yards in a game, and while he is usually a candidate for 300+ yards passing, he should struggle to hit that mark in this matchup. Other options in this offense are either priced out of our value range (i.e. WR Laquon Treadwell – 7,100) or lack the upside we would like to see due to the stout matchup.
Northwestern at Wisconsin
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Wisconsin -10
O/U: 40
Northwestern
Team Expected Points: 15
This game has an O/U of only 40 in a contest between a couple of defensive powers. Northwestern relies heavily on their rushing attack, but they face Wisconsin’s #5 rushing defense allowing less than 100 rushing yards per game. We find no value in Northwestern players on this slate.
Wisconsin
Team Expected Points: 25
RB – Dare Ogunbowale – 4,600
Analysis: Wisconsin’s RB Dare Ogunbowale grades out as a decent value with Corey Clement again likely to be sidelined. While he has averaged less than 3 yards per carry in his last 4 games, Ogunbowale has consistently scored touchdowns and is usually involved in the passing game. His upside should be fairly limited in the tough matchup with a low point total.
Recommendation: Ogunbowale can be plugged into a cash game for differentiation, but we will be using him scarcely as this game total is just too low to justify the exposure.
UCLA at Utah
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Utah -1.5
O/U: 55
UCLA
Team Expected Points: 26.75
WR – Jordan Payton – 5,700
Analysis: While Utah has been stout against the run this year, their passing defense can be exploited as they rank 100th in the country. Jordan Payton is UCLA’s leading receiver and is coming off a career-best performance with 14 catches for 152 yards last week. Payton has over 100 yards in 2 of his last 3 games, but he has not reached the end zone in his last 4 outings. We expect this game to be close and Payton should be a go-to target to keep UCLA in it with one of the top teams in the country.
Recommendation: Payton is fairly priced here, but his lack of touchdown upside with no more than a single touchdown in a game this season makes him tough to justify in tournaments. Payton is a viable cash game play, but limit your exposure.
Utah
Team Expected Points: 28.25
RB – Joseph Williams – 3,000
Analysis: With Devontae Booker out for the season, Joseph Williams is expected to take over starting duties. Williams should be in for a solid workload and has shown his ability to catch the ball in limited opportunities. If used like Booker, Williams could have some nice upside.
Recommendation: Honestly, just plug Williams into your cash game lineups and move on as he should be a slam dunk at this minimum salary.
USC at Oregon
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Oregon -4.5
O/U: 72
USC
Team Expected Points: 33.75
RB - Ronald Jones – 5,100
Analysis: Ronald Jones received a season high 19 carries for the second straight week, but was much less effective last week than he was against Arizona as he averaged only 3.2 yards per carry for 61 yards and was kept out of the end zone for the first time in 3 weeks. Despite this rough game against Cal, Jones has shown his ability to make plays this season and find a way into the end zone. He has a fairly solid matchup against a weak overall defense from Oregon, and if Tre Madden is out again, Jones should be in store for at least 15 carries again.
Recommendation: Jones is at a good price this week as he should be in for a decent workload. We are projecting a good game as he comes out as a playable option in your cash games.
WR - Juju Smith-Schuster – 7,000
Analysis: Juju Smith-Schuster was held to a season low 3 receptions last week against Cal, but he did finish the game with 66 yards and a touchdown to salvage some fantasy points on the day. Smith-Schuster has been the most reliable weapon in the Trojans passing attack this season with g games of at least 100 yards and only 2 games without a touchdown. Oregon is one of only 5 teams allowing an average of more than 300 passing yards per game this season, so we expect Smith-Schuster to be in store for a huge game—especially considering the high O/U and spread with USC as the underdog.
Recommendation: Smith-Schuster is a safe play this week in this premium matchup. He is pricey, but there is a ton of value on this slate so you should be able to easily afford him. Feel free to roll him out in all formats.
Oregon
Team Expected Points: 38.25
WR – Darren Carrington – 5,600
Analysis: In only 4 games this season, Carrington has surpassed 100 yards 3 times with a catch of at least 36 yards in each game. Even though Oregon isn’t winning as many games this season, they still run a very fast paced offensive attack that is known for some significant big play upside. USC’s passing defense is definitely their weakness as they allow over 250 passing yards per game on average.
Recommendation: Carrington is a secondary option in the offense, but his price offers some cheaper exposure to a game from which we expect plenty of points. He should be a great tournament option this week.
RB – Royce Freeman – 7,500
Analysis: Freeman has been a monster this season as he’s accounted for over 100 yards of total offense in every game this season with only 2 outings in which he failed to score a touchdown. Freeman is averaging over 20 carries per game with 19 receptions on the season, making him an absolute focal point of this high flying offense. The Trojans rushing defense is solid on paper, but they have been hit or miss against elite backs this season. CJ Prosise ran all over the Trojans for 143 yards and 2 touchdowns, but they then shut down Devontae Booker for only 62 yards and no touchdowns the following week. Overall, Freeman is in a tough matchup but should still have a relatively high floor.
Recommendation: This game has too high of a total not to consider Freeman. He is priced below the top tier on this slate, but if choosing around this price, we are projecting Virginia Tech’s McMillian to have a slightly better game in his more desirable matchup. Freeman is a great tournament option.
Wake Forest at Clemson
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Clemson -29
O/U: 48
Wake Forest
Team Expected Points: 9.5
Wake Forest’s 112th ranked offense is an easy fade against the #1 team in the country.
Clemson
Team Expected Points: 38.5
RB – Wayne Gallman – 6,700, Zac Brooks – 3,000
Analysis: While Clemson is one of, if not the best all-around team in the country, that sometimes doesn’t help you in the world of fantasy sports. They are huge favorites over Wake Forest in a game with a relatively low O/U of under 50. We see Wayne Gallman as the only viable option to consider here as Clemson will not need to pass the ball much to go up quickly in this game. However, with Gallman’s health concerns, there is a good chance he could sit, especially considering how much of a favorite Clemson is in this game. We see Zac Brooks as the next best option, as he is averaging 6.9 yards per carry with 3 touchdowns on limited opportunities this season.
Recommendation: Even if Gallman is a go, it will be tough to pay up for him in this game where he has a good shot at sitting after halftime. Zac Brooks at minimum price is intriguing even if Gallman is in, and makes for a very solid punt play in all formats if Gallman is ruled out.
