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Campfire Chat: Situations to Avoid

Footballguys staff members discuss a handful of situations to avoid

An old adage is "Everyone has value." We all believe this on the surface, but there are teams, situations, and players you just don't want on your team. Name some of these situations. Why are you avoiding them?

Ryan Hester: A general rule of thumb I carry into each fantasy draft season is to avoid players on what I think will be bottom-quartile NFL offenses in the first three rounds of my drafts. Last year, for instance, this kept me away from players like Todd Gurley, Adrian Peterson, DeAndre Hopkins, and Lamar Miller. Of course, this can lead to some misses (out of that group, Miller was a decent fantasy asset), but in general, I maintain this rule for myself.

Last year, when I had a Gurley-vs.-A.J. Green debate at 1.04 in my favorite league (yes, I overlooked David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott), I asked myself, "do you want to be watching L.A. Rams games all season kicking yourself when they've gone three-and-out fives times in a row?" After all, fantasy football is about entertainment as much as destroying the wills of your friends and co-workers, right?

This year, that rule applies to the following players in the first three rounds: Jordan Howard, Jay Ajayi, Gurley, Hopkins, Miller, Leonard Fournette, Allen Robinson, and Isaiah Crowell. Out of those players, only Howard and Crowell appeal to me because of their individual efficiency, their use in the passing game, the offensive tendencies of their coaches, and Crowell's price tag (cheapest of anyone on the list).

At running back, I'd rather roll the dice on Ty Montgomery (mid-fourth) or Joe Mixon (early fourth) as my third-round pick than anyone listed above. For receivers, Davante Adams, Terrelle Pryor, and Golden Tate (all mid-to-late fourth) have better situations than the players mentioned above.

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