Unlock More Content Like This With A
Footballguys Premium Subscription
"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football only site on the planet."
Matthew Berry, NBC Sports EDGE
It has always been a hard sell to list Jay Cutler as a QB1 in the fantasy football circles. He often shows flashes of brilliance on the field but he also equally shows flashes of frustration and inconsistency. Injuries are often in play with Cutler as well, as he has an offensive line that has struggled to keep him upright over the years. With Marc Trestman having a pass happy offense and with the emergence of Alshon Jeffery, Cutler is in a prime position to sneak into the top 10 QB discussion. If you were to combine both Cutler and McCown’s fantasy numbers last year they would have been the third ranked fantasy quarterback. Now with McCown gone to Tampa Bay and a healthy Cutler hoping to play a full 16 game schedule, everything is set up for Cutler to put up some really big offensive numbers.
Even with the obvious big play WR duo of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery and star RB in Matt Forte, the Bears have plenty of other offensive weapons and have started to build a nice core of talent. Martellus Bennett at the TE position has potential to catch 60 passes to go along with 5 or 6 touchdowns and is entering his second season in Chicago after a solid first year campaign in the system. Second year WR Marquess Wilson is projecting to have a bigger role in the offense and should find plenty of open space with teams concentrating on the bigger two WR's playing in front of him. Another potential helper for Cutler in the passing game could be back up rookie RB KaDeem Carey. Sure Forte is set in stone in front of Carey but if for some reason Forte ever needs to take a break, Carey would be a reliable option catching out of the backfield. The passing game is wide open for Cutler and all the pieces and players are in place for him to succeed.
One of the big drawbacks on Cutler is his ability to withstand the relentless pressure he faces year after year in Chicago. The Bears offensive line has been a sore spot for Cutler in his past 5 years in Chicago and a result of that has been injury concerns. In his 5 years in Chicago he only has played one full 16 game season and that came in 2009. While the offensive line may still have issues, the game plan has changed for Cutler and Marc Trestman's offense has the ability for him to make quick desicions that will lead to less contact in the pocket. Cutler himself said, "After you do it a few years, you know what the answers are already. You're not guessing. You know where guys are going to be. You know what the calls are. You know why the call came in, you know what you want to get to if there is a problem. We're going in that direction."
POSITIVES
- Cutler has the leagues best duo at the WR position in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery
- Marc Trestman's offense is entering its second year and could be even more explosive and pass happy.
- A great running game with Matt Forte in the backfield that can be a short pass outlet for Cutler also.
- Plays in a division that is full of shoot out style games and will have a lot of offensive production.
- ADP for Cutler is currently 12-15 QB off the board
- QB depth this year is deeper than ever before, so you can wait on a guy like Cutler and fill in all your other positions.
NEGATIVES
- The injury history is lurking over Cutler after the past couple of seasons which saw him miss time.
- Hasn't played a full 16 game season since 2009
- Past offensive line worries in Chicago, things have gotten better but still concerns.
- No extra rushing fantasy points for Cutler as he will be mainly planted in the pocket.
FINAL THOUGHTS
If Jay Cutler can play a full 16 games in this current Bears offense, he is destined for success and will easily out perform his current ADP. What you want to be able to do in drafts is be flexible at where you take your position players. The depth of the QB position allows you to stock pile other positions and wait a little bit longer at the QB position. Targeting a guy like Cutler in rounds 8-10 can be a winning formula and he could have a similar success story to what Nick Foles had last year in Philadelphia. The Bears are fresh off giving Cutler a seven-year, $126 million extension with $54 million in guaranteed money. That contract alone shows you their commitement to him and that they are not worried at all about him staying healthy and playing a full 16 game season. Just like the Bears did with the big contract, as a fantasy owner you have to believe in your QB and not shy away from the possible upside. Taking calculated risks is how teams win each Sunday and how fantasy owners help separate themselves from the pack.
PROJECTIONS
Projections | CMP | ATT | Yards | TD | INT | RSH | Yards | TD |
James Brimacombe | 350 | 550 | 4150 | 30 | 16 | 25 | 105 | 1 |
David Dodds | 341 | 560 | 4021 | 28 | 15 | 29 | 116 | 1 |
OTHER VIEWPOINTS
Neil Greenberg at The Washington Post says Jay Cutler could be a late-round steal in fantasy football.
“Going into my ninth year, I think this is only the second or third time I’ve been in an offense multiple years,” Cutler said. “We’re still in the learning process, but guys have much more familiarity with what the concepts are and the formations and everything, so that’s definitely going to be a help; less thinking and able to go fast.”
Sean Kelly at isportsweb thinks Cutler has a shot at making a comeback this year.
"Jay Cutler has the potential to be the ultimate value quarterback this year. In an offense loaded with weapons under the direction of a hot, new head coach, last season should have been a breakout year for Jay Cutler. Before he was hurt, Cutler was on pace to throw for 4,347 yards, setting a new franchise record. If he can stay healthy, Cutler should break that record this season, while helping fantasy owners win their championships".
Dan Wiederer at The Chicago Tribune gave a snapshot of the Bears QB position.
"It's hard not to like the confidence and comfort Cutler is feeling heading into the season. Everything he ever has wanted from the Bears has been put in place.
Long-term contract stability: Check.
Pro Bowl playmakers all around him: Check.
A united and reliable offensive line: Check."