WEEK 4 - FANTASYSCORE GPP OFFERINGS
FantasyScore is a USA Today Sports Media Group fantasy sports game that is powered by RealTime Fantasy Sports. It is a DFS site that can give you the excitement of playing fantasy football each week during the NFL season. FantasyScore offers Draft Leagues (Draft & Go) and Salary Cap leagues weekly during the NFL season.
In this feature we are going to look at the GPP contests and offer the top stacks, fades, and ownership projections for each upcoming week.
For Week 4 of the NFL season, FantasyScore is offering three big GPPs for buy-ins of $1, $5, and $10. The $1 GPP is limited to 1,000 total entries and pays the top 200 places, with $135 going to first place. The $5 and $10 GPPs are limited to 500 total entries, with both paying out the top 100 places. The top prize in the $5 contest is $450, while the top prize in the $10 contest is $1,700.
FantasyScore will also be hosting a $25,000 Football Championship for Week 16 for which you can qualify during Weeks 1-15 via satellite tournaments. There will be a total of 105 "golden tickets" available to be won via satellite contests from Weeks 1 to 15 and the Championship pays the top 20 winners, with $10,000 going to first place. In Week 4, FantasyScore will run a $20 satellite with 50 total entries, where 4 golden tickets will be awarded, and a $5 satellite with 170 entries, where the top 3 finishers will receive a golden ticket.
TOP STACKS
Green Bay Packers -- QB Aaron Rodgers ($8,900) and WR Randall Cobb ($7,300)
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been great through three games so far. He has 10 touchdowns and is the one QB that is almost a gaurentee to throw for a multi touchdown game. Coming off a big Monday Night game where he could do no wrong as he passed for five touchdowns you would think he might be in line for somewhat of a let down game on the road against the 49ers. The opposite might hold true this week as Rodgers heads back to his home town and is still bitter about the 49ers passing him over in the draft for Alex Smith. Rodgers always finds a way to get himself up for these big games against the 49ers and this year the 49ers have took a major step back in their defense and for that reason Rodgers should be able to continue his 2015 dominance and put up a big game once again. When Jordy Nelson was injured in the preseason it was almost a given that it would be an increase in targets for Cobb. We have seen this trend now develop through 3 games as Cobb has had 5, 11, and then 12 targets in each game. Last week Cobb torched the Chiefs for 7 receptions for 91 yards and 3 touchdowns and will look to continue his rapid pace heading into Week 4 against the 49ers.
Oakland Raiders -- QB Derek Carr ($6,300) and WR Amari Cooper ($6,500)
Derek Carr has just had back to back really good games against the Ravens and the Browns. He threw for 351 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Ravens in Week 2 and followed it up last week with 314 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Browns. Now the Raiders are headed to Chicago to play a Bears team that is in a downward spiral and giving up yards and points all over the place. Carr has built a good connection with Amari Cooper right from the start and the pair have already teamed up for 20 receptions, 290 yards, and a touchdown on 31 targets. Look for another game here with Carr looking in Cooper's direction 10+ times.
Atlanta Falcons -- QB Matt Ryan ($7,800) and WR Julio Jones ($8,900)
Matt Ryan has passed for 946 yards and 5 touchdowns through the Falcons first 3 games and it has been Jones who has 440 of those yards and 4 out of the 5 touchdown passes. There isn't a QB/WR duo in the league right now that is seeing the volume on offense and Ryan and Jones are. Ryan has targeted Jones a remarkable 46 times so far this season which is good for 34 receptions. Last game alone against the Cowboys, Ryan targeted Jones 20 times in the game. When ever you have a QB sending 20 targets to his WR in a game you have to take notice and that is the type of stack you want to exploit as if the QB hits it is going to be to that WR and the fantasy points will start to pile in.
VALUE STACKS
Carolina Panthers -- Cam Newton ($6,300) and Ted Ginn ($2,000)
Cam Newton has taken the Panthers on his back through the teams first three games and has become the top fantasy QB that is not named Aaron Rodgers. Through three games Newton has 685 passing yards with 5 touchdown passes and 144 rushing yards with 2 rushing touchdowns. The rushing alone gives Newton a major boost over other QBs as he picks up nearly 9 fantasy points a game just with his legs. When Kelvin Benjamin went down in the preseason there was a major panic for the Panthers offense and what the teams outcome was going to be this year but Newton has done his part to forget about all that and just move on by making big plays on offense. Ted Ginn has been Newton's favorite target outside of Greg Olsen and Ginn has been targeted 20 times so far this season for 10 receptions, 188 yards and a touchdown. Ginn comes at minimum salary at $2,000 on FantasyScore and gives you the top WR on the Panthers paired with a QB that is hotter than anyone right now.
Jacksonville Jaguars -- Blake Bortles ($4,700) and Allen Robinson ($4,900)
Blake Bortles has quietly pieced together a 3 game stretch with some decent numbers with 698 passing yards 5 touchdowns and 60 yards rushing. Maybe not the greatest numbers by the elite QBs standards but for a Jacksonville Jaguars offense that has been struggling for years this is a very welcoming feat to start out the 2015 season. The Jaguars get a tough road game against the Colts this week but that won't hurt Bortles fantasy production as he showed last week in a blowout against the Patriots that he could still fill the stat sheet as he finished the game with 242 yards and a pair of touchdown passes. Allen Robinson has been Bortles favorite go-to WR all preseason and it has showed in the regular season as well. Although Robinson has been a little bit up and down through the teams first 3 games he has the ability to make huge plays in an instant as he showed in Week 2 against the Dolphins where he caught 6 passes for 155 yards and 2 touchdowns. Bortles and Robinson should be in line for a solid game no matter the game flow as the two could connect early or if it turns out to be a blowout by the Colts they could certainly do some demage in garbage time.
FADES
Based on price and matchups alone you are going to have some players that are highly owned in Week 4.
Quarterback -- Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals ($8,300)
The Arizona Cardinals have looked great so far this season and having a healthy Carson Palmer back under center certainly can make the offense roll. Through three games, Palmer has 803 passing yards and 9 touchdown passes. The reason I caution Palmer for a fade this week is because of the tougher divisional matchup against the St. Louis Rams who have a strong secondary. Palmer should be in line for a decent game but the ceiling is not there for the offense this week and at the price you are likely over paying for your QB this week.
Running Back -- Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings ($8,200)
Peterson finally found the endzone last week against the Chargers and in fact found it twice while finishing with 126 yards rushing on 20 carries. It was the first touchdowns for Peterson since 2013 and he surely looks ready to roll for the rest of the season but for Week 4 the Vikings get a very good Broncos defense that have been slowing down everyone so far this season. If Teddy Bridgewater can get the Vikings going in the passing game then you would think lanes would open up for Peterson but from what we have seen the first three weeks, Bridgewater is still trying to figure things out in the offense. It could be a long day for all the Vikings offensive players and at the high price it is not a week you want to pay up for Peterson.
Wide Receiver -- Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints ($6,400)
Brandin Cooks had everything pointing in the right direction at the start of the season with Drew Brees looking to him at every opportunity. Fast forward a few weeks and now you have a Saints offense that is without Brees and is just struggling to move the ball in any situation. Cooks is seeing the targets with 23 for 16 receptions and 190 yards but has yet to find the endzone this season. $6,400 is a tough price to pay for a WR on his backup QB and has had no sniff of the endzone as of yet.
Tight End -- Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks ($7,300)
Jimmy Graham is the highest priced TE this week at $7,300 and rebounded last week with a nice 7 catch 83 yards and a touchdown game but for the price and still the uncertainty of how the Seahawks are using Graham it doesn't warrant the must play status that Graham has been so accustomed to in recent years. The tight end position looks to be one that you can spend down on this week.
Defense and Special Teams -- Houston Texans ($2,900)
The Texans draw a tough defensive assignment in their road matchup against the 3-0 Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have been passing over everyone and dominating teams with Julio Jones being targeted at a ridiculous rate. The Texans defensive line might have a bunch of stars on it but it won't be enough to slow down the Matt Ryan and Julio Jones combo.
OWNERSHIP PERCENTAGE
It is hard to predict exactly who will be over-owned and who will be under-owned, but we can take our best guesses based on price, matchups, and current buzz and ADP heading into Week 4. I will try to predict the three highest- and lowest-owned players each week and check back in the next week to evaluate how I did with my predictions. We will use just the $10 Touchdown GPP as our contest of choice each week.
HIGHEST OWNERSHIP
Quarterback
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers ($6,300)Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders ($6,300)Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers ($8,900)
Running Back
Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs ($8,100)Matt Forte, Chicago Bears ($7,900)Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders ($6,300)
Wide Receiver
Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons ($8,900)Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers ($7,300)Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders ($6,500)
Tight End
Charles Clay, Buffalo Bills ($2,900)Martellus Bennett, Chicago Bears ($6,400)Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers ($7,100)
Defense and Special Teams
Seattle Seahawks ($3,300)Arizona Cardinals ($2,700)Denver Broncos ($2,400)
LOW/VALUE OWNERSHIP
Quarterback
Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers ($7,400)Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos ($8,300)Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills ($6,600)
Running Back
Melvin Gordon, San Diego Chargers ($5,600)Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers ($7,800)T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,000)
Wide Receiver
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts ($6,900)Michael Crabtree, Oakland Raiders ($4,600)Jeremy Maclin, Kansas City Chiefs ($6,300)
Tight End
Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings ($4,600)Tyler Eifert, Cinncinati Bengals ($6,200)Larry Donnell, New York Giants ($4,500)
Defense and Special Teams
Buffalo Bills ($3,100)New York Jets ($2,900)San Diego Chargers ($1,900) Follow @JamesBrimacombe
