Week 1 - Fantasyscore GPP offerings
FantasyScore is a USA Today Sports Media Group fantasy sports game that is powered by RealTime Fantasy Sports. It is a DFS site that can give you the excitement of playing fantasy football each week during the NFL season. FantasyScore offers Draft Leagues (Draft & Go) and Salary Cap leagues weekly during the NFL season.
In this feature we are going to look at the GPP contests and offer the top stacks, fades, and ownership projections for each upcoming week.
For Week 1 of the NFL season, FantasyScore is offering three big GPPs for buy-ins of $1, $5, and $10. The $1 GPP is limited to 1,000 total entries and pays the top 200 places, with $135 going to first place. The $5 and $10 GPPs are limited to 500 total entries, with both paying out the top 100 places. The top prize in the $5 contest is $450, while the top prize in the $10 contest is $1,700.
FantasyScore will also be hosting a $25,000 Football Championship for Week 16 for which you can qualify during Weeks 1-15 via satellite tournaments. There will be a total of 105 "golden tickets" available to be won via satellite contests from Weeks 1 to 15 and the Championship pays the top 20 winners, with $10,000 going to first place. In Week 1, FantasyScore will run a $20 satellite with 50 total entries, where 4 golden tickets will be awarded, and a $5 satellite with 170 entries, where the top 3 finishers will receive a golden ticket.
Top Stacks
Green Bay Packers -- QB Aaron Rodgers ($8,800) and WR Davante Adams ($3,600)
This stack will cost you $12,400, but it will allow you to have a piece of one of the top passing offenses of the day and possibly the top quarterback of the entire week in Aaron Rodgers. Davante Adams is an extreme discount because of the early pricing and the preseason injury to Jordy Nelson. The Packers are five-point favorites against the Bears, and the game total has now reach 50 points. Although Rodgers and Adams are a top stack this week, just Adams by himself might be a fade (see below) because of his potential high ownership percentage.
Dallas Cowboys -- QB Tony Romo ($7,900) and WR Dez Bryant ($7,600)
This combo will come at a very high price of $15,500 but it will give you exposure to a primetime game on Sunday Night that is sure to be a back-and-forth offensive explosion. The Cowboys are six-point favorites and the over-under is 49.5 points.
Atlanta Falcons -- QB Matt Ryan ($7,800) and WR Julio Jones ($7,900)
This combo will cost you a couple of hundred more than the Romo-Bryant stack but it also offers you a piece of the game of the week with the highest point total (53.5 points) with the Eagles being favored by a single point. The Falcons have no running game to speak of and after Ryan and Jones there really is not a lot of flavor to the offense. For the Falcons to play in a back-and-forth type of game, Ryan will be looking Jones' way likely 10-15 times, and with that potential targets in that range, it will be hard to find a better QB-WR stack.
Value Stacks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- Jameis Winston ($5,000) and Vincent Jackson ($4,100)
At only $9,100 total, you get a value stack that starts with an unknown in Winston at quarterback. Taking Jackson over Mike Evans is a nice fade -- Evans looks to be in line for a better game overall than Jackson, but it could be a full day of the rookie quarterback looking for the veteran receiver for big plays down the field.
Jacksonville Jaguars -- Blake Bortles ($4,700) and Allen Robinson ($3,900)
This stack comes in even cheaper than the Winston-Jackson stack at only $8,600. The Jaguars find themselves four-point underdogs on the road in a game that has a 40-point over-under. The Jaguars offense appears to be improving, and getting a cheap piece of them early in the season might be a wise decision that others might overlook.
FADES
Based on price and matchups alone you are going to have some players that are highly owned in Week 1.
Quarterback -- Sam Bradford, Philadelphia Eagles ($6,600)
The word is getting out on Bradford, especially after he showed that he is back in full health with a great preseason. He plays in the highest game total on the week at 53.5 points, and he also gives you the Monday Night sweat points some like to chase. So whom should you insert instead of Bradford? How about Minnesota's Teddy Bridgewater at the same price of $6,600? It's another Monday night game, and it's actually the last one of the week.
Sure, the Vikings are three-point underdogs and the game holds only a 41-point total, and it also happens to be the first game back for star running back Adrian Peterson. Those things all look to be negatives for Bridgewater but they could work in your favor and make him extremely under-owned. Bridgewater has some newfound talent in the passing game with Kyle Rudolph back, Charles Johnson emerging, and he and Mike Wallace finally connecting in Training Camp. With Peterson back as well, the defense will be forced to play the run buying more time for Bridgewater to make plays in the air and on the ground himself.
Running Back -- Ameer Abdullah ($4,000)
Abdullah has turned into a 2015 rookie darling, and rightfully so with what he has shown in the offseason. He looks like the real deal. At a $4,000 price tag, he is going to be a very popular player. The matchup is tough for Abdullah against a Chargers team that can make plays at the line of scrimmage, but one that also has a good tackling core in the secondary. The rookie should be productive, but it might be hard for him to break a long run in this matchup.
A nice alternative who could go under-owned is Doug Martin. Martin gets a soft matchup against the Titans, who were one of the worst defenses all last season. Martin's price is only $100 more than that of Abdullah's, and he will be running at home. He may be looked upon to take some of the pressure off of his rookie quarterback, too. The Tampa Bay coaches have had nothing but positive things to say about Martin all offseason, and this is the perfect matchup for him to break out and show glimpses of his big-game ability that he had as a rookie.
Wide Receiver -- Davante Adams ($3,600)
You are getting a steal at this price, and he would be a lock for cash-game plays regardless of his ownership percentage. In GPPs, however, it is a different ball game. You want to try to be different from your competition, and fading a player such as Adams is an easy way to do that. A nice alternative to Adams would be a guy like John Brown in Arizona, who is actually $300 lower in price at $3,300. Brown seems to have great chemistry with Carson Palmer, and 5-8 targets in their Week 1 matchup against the Saints is a reasonable expectation. Brown is the receiver that is emerging out of the Arizona group and his Week 1 salary makes him a great value.
Tight End -- Greg Olsen ($6,100)
With the Panthers offense in shambles after the Kelvin Benjamin injury, all eyes are on Greg Olsen. The big tight end is expected to play big role in the offense. Olsen's $6,100 salary is expensive, however, and dropping down for Kyle Rudolph at $3,600 can open up a lot of salary-cap space for the other skill positions on your roster. Rudolph is under-priced to start the season as he is coming off an injury-filled 2014 campaign. He is a big redzone target and might just find the end zone on Monday night in the last game of the Week.
Defense and Special Teams -- New York Jets ($3,000)
The Jets play at home against the Browns, who seem to have no idea who their quarterback will be to open the season. The Browns offense lacks playmakers all around and the Jets will be on everyone's radar early on. A nice alternative might be the Miami Dolphins at $2,300, who play against a Washington team that just named Kirk Cousins their Week 1 starter. Cousins has been able to move the offense at times but also has been known to blow up and thrown multiple interceptions. The Dolphins defense has done a nice job of bolstering their defensive line and will attack the quarterback all day long.
OWNERSHIP PERCENTAGE
It is hard to predict exactly who will be over-owned and who will be under-owned, but we can take our best guesses based on price, matchups, and current buzz and ADP heading into Week 1. I will try to predict the three highest- and lowest-owned players each week and check back in the next week to evaluate how I did with my predictions. We will use just the $10 Touchdown GPP as our contest of choice each week.
Highest Ownership
Quarterback
Sam Bradford, Philadelphia Eagles ($6,600)Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts ($8,600)Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers ($8,600)
Running Back
Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions ($4,000)Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings ($7,700)DeMarco Murray, Philadelphia Eagles ($6,800)
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers ($3,600)Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,100)Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons ($7,900)
Tight End
Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers ($6,100)Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs ($5,900)Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks ($6,900)
Defense and Special Teams
New York Jets ($3,000)Miami Dolphins ($2,300)Carolina Panthers ($2,500)
Low/Value Ownership
Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins ($6,800)Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings ($6,600)Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals ($7,100)
Running Back
Chris Ivory, New York Jets ($4,300)Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,100)Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers ($5,300)
Wide Receiver
DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans ($6,100)Jeremy Maclin, Kansas City Chiefs ($5,800)Steve Smith, Baltimore Ravens ($4,900)
Tight End
Larry Donnell, New York Giants ($4,500)Josh Hill, New Orleans Saints ($3,200)Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($3,900)
Defense and Special Teams
Cincinnati Bengals ($1,700)Indianapolis Colts ($2,600)Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($1,900)