If you survived this long, you hopefully have clear cut starters at every position, but many teams that are still alive have ties to break and deep sleepers to look for because of injuries or underperforming players that need to be yanked from the lineup. With upheaval at every position via injuries or poor performances over the last few weeks, putting the intersection of a player and his matchup under the microscope is more important than ever. Here are some matchups that you want to take advantage of in this championship week:
Quarterback
Colin Kaepernick vs ATL - Kaepernick has gained a reputation as an unreliable fantasy quarterback because of his uneven production pattern, but in reality he is a very reliable fantasy play against good matchups, such as Green Bay, Jacksonville, and Washington. This week brings maybe the best matchup of the second half of the season - the Atlanta Falcons. Of quarterbacks who have faced the Falcons, only Matt Flynn has failed to account for at least two touchdowns. Kaepernick has been playing well for the last month, he is a much safer play in the fantasy championship than the word on the street would have you believe.
Andy Dalton vs MIN - Like Kaepernick, Dalton has been a QB1 against good matchups this year, and someone you want nowhere near your lineup in bad ones. The Bengals Week 16 opponent, the Vikings, have surrendered at least two touchdowns to their opponent’s quarterbacks in every game since Week 7, when Eli Manning was Eli Manning against them. Robert Griffin III threw for three scores against this defense. Joe Flacco threw for three scores against them in the snow. Dalton should flourish with a talented set of receivers that now includes Giovani Bernard as a threat out of the backfield.
Russell Wilson vs ARI - Wilson has had three games of three or more touchdown passes this year. Two of them came at home, and the third came at Arizona. This week, he gets Arizona, at home. The Seahawks offense always seems to move the ball more effectively riding the wave of the 12th man, and the Cardinals just gave up a massive week to Ryan Fitzpatrick. Don’t worry about Wilson having a low number of pass attempts. He didn’t need more than 30 in any of his biggest games as a passer this year.
Kirk Cousins vs DAL - Cousins doesn’t get the benefit of facing the Falcons this week, but he does draw the matchup that might be as attractive this moment. Without Sean Lee, the Cowboys defense is prone to massive lapses, which tend to produce massive fantasy numbers. Three of the last five quarterbacks to face them have thrown four touchdowns. The two that didn’t were Matt McGloin and Eli Manning. Dallas has also allowed four 400-plus yard passing games and four rushing touchdowns by quarterbacks this year. Don’t go crazy and bench someone like Drew Brees or Tom Brady for Cousins, but give him a long look if you’re an underdog and need 25-30+ from your quarterback to have a chance.
Joe Flacco vs NE - Flacco couldn’t even muster one touchdown drive against the Lions, but he did move the ball even to have six scoring drives, and this week he faces a Patriots defense that has allowed at least two scores to every quarterback they have faced since Week 6 except Case Keenum (and Ben Tate scored three times in that games). Flacco is getting his full complement of weapons healthy for the first time all season, and he is facing an opponent he has owned over the years. Flacco has at least 240 yards and two passing touchdowns in each of his last four meetings with Bill Belichick, averaging over 300 yards and 2.5 passing touchdowns per game over that span.
Ben Roethlisberger at GB - Roethlisberger was robbed of a chance for a better game against the Bengals by his team jumping out to a 21-point lead in the first quarter. He had 16 passing touchdowns in the previous six games coming in, and Roethlisberger had been a bonafide fantasy QB1 in the second half of the season since he had gotten more freedom to pilot the offense. This week, he faces a Packers defense that has allowed two or more scores to five of the last passers they have faced, with Eli Manning and Christian Ponder being the exceptions. Over the course of the season, only Manning, Ponder, Brandon Weeden, and Matthew Stafford sans Calvin Johnson have failed to throw at least two scores against the Packers. Roethlisberger is unlikely to join the ignoble group in Week 16.
Running Back
Frank Gore vs ATL - Gore has been stuck in neutral lately, outside of a long run to help clinch a win over the rival Seahawks, but the Falcons are what’s good what ails offenses around the league. Bobby Rainey’s 163 yard, three-touchdown game came against the Falcons, and CJ Spiller last great fantasy line came against Atlanta in Week 13. They also allowed Marshawn Lynch to run roughshod over them for 145 yards, and Gore should be able to break the century mark as long as the 49ers don’t blow this one open early. Since he had 22 carries last week, there is no reason to think that the 49ers are looking to ease up on Gore down the stretch.
Alfred Morris vs DAL - Morris runs the risk of having his day ended prematurely by a third fumble in two weeks, but outside of that, nothing should get between him and a big fantasy line for his owners. The Cowboys have been a matador defense without Sean Lee, and Morris is the bull in the china shop this week. A running back has had at least 100 yards against themin five of the last six weeks, and the one that didn’t - Rashad Jennings - had two scores. Of the last seven #1 running backs to face Dallas, only Andre Brown failed to score, and he still had 141 total yards. Washington would like nothing more than to accelerate the end the Cowboys season with a loss, and feeding Morris is a good game plan to make that happen.
Knowshon Moreno/Montee Ball at HOU - Many fantasy teams heavily invested in the Broncos did not survive the semis, but if you did, a big bounceback is coming at Houston this week. Forty points is pretty much routine for this offense, and the Texans’ inability to keep up should mean lots of second-half carries for Ball. Running backs have scored against the Texans in each of the last five games, and backs have scored on receptions in each of the last three, which is a great sign for Moreno and his quality work in the screen game. Moreno and Ball had both been strong fantasy plays in Denver wins in Week 13 and 14, look for that trend to resume after last week’s aberration against the Chargers.
Jordan Todman/Maurice Jones-Drew vs TEN - Going back to the Jaguars well might seem like a strange championship week plan, but Jags running backs have combined for over 100 rushing yards in each of the last four games. Making this even more attractive is the matchup against the Titans, who have given up at least one score to a running back in every game since Week 5. Five running backs have scored twice in a game against Tennessee during that span. Monitor Jones-Drew’s recovery from a hamstring injury to get clarity on which Jacksonville running back to start on Sunday. At this moment, the odds favor Todman getting his second straight start.
Lamar Miller at BUF - The Dolphins’ inconsistent use of their running back duo and wavering commitment to the running game create inherent risk in calling Miller’s number in championship week as a flex, but Miller got 16 touches to Daniel Thomas’ six last week. Add in that Thomas aggravated his ankle injury last week, and that means Miller is the Miami back to take a chance on if you believe the trend of the Bills surrendering good numbers to opposing running backs will continue. They have allowed six running back touchdowns in the last five games, and Jordan Todman had over 150 total yards in the one game that they didn’t allow a RB score in that span. Bobby Rainey and Antone Smith’s ability to break long touchdown runs against the Bills over the last three weeks is even more encouragement to give Miller a shot in very deep leagues, and maybe not-so-deep leagues if Thomas is ruled out.
Giovani Bernard vs MIN - Bernard has been playing well and getting 15 touches a game lately, but that isn’t what makes him a good choice in PPR leagues this week. The Vikings have had trouble defending good pass catching backs all season, giving up at least four receptions to a running back in 11 out of 14 games this year. Dual threat backs like Matt Forte and Reggie Bush have gone over 150 total yards against them. Ray Rice and DeAngelo Williams were able to get over 100 total yards against Minnesota on the back of good receiving numbers. The Bengals have also scored at least 40 points in each of their last three home games, which boosts the chance of Bernard having at least one, if not multiple scores.
Wide Receiver
Michael Crabtree/Anquan Boldin vs ATL - Seeing the trend here? Crabtree is hitting his stride and Boldin has already shown that he can get hot quickly against weak secondaries, so both are nice WR3/Flex options this week against Atlanta. Big, physical receivers give the Falcons corners trouble, as Vincent Jackson has two outstanding games against Atlanta, and Calvin Johnson went over 200 yards against them. They have also allowed three 75-yard receivers to Seattle, two 100-yard receivers to New England, and over 300 combined wide receiver yards to Washington last week. Going across the country to face a team with a lot more to play for than they have is not a recipe for a defensive stand by the Falcons.
Pierre Garcon vs DAL - Garcon was slowly creeping out of the top 25 wide receivers with Robert Griffin III at quarterback, even in PPR leagues. One game with Kirk Cousins (albeit against the very weak Atlanta defense) vaulted Garcon back to the elite WR1 numbers level heading into another soft matchup this week against Dallas. The Cowboys have given up over 35 points a game in the last five, with wide receivers accounting for seven touchdowns over that span. Now that he has been revived as a downfield threat, Garcon’s nearly guaranteed 10+ targets should yield big numbers.
Andre Johnson vs DEN - This one seemed a little more enticing with Case Keenum at quarterback, but Matt Schaub showed that he can feed Johnson for big numbers when he replaced Keenum twice during the last throes of the Gary Kubiak era. Johnson had 4-59 and 8-95 lines with Schaub in one half of the Oakland and Jacksonville games, and he should have ample opportunity to ring up catches and yards against a Broncos team that should force them to play catchup for most of the game.
Dwayne Bowe vs IND - The Chiefs/Colts game looked like a formality until the playoff leading pack backed up to them with losses last week. Now the Chiefs are still alive for the #1 seed and the Colts are still alive for the #2 seed. Bowe took a back seat to Jamaal Charles last week, but he should have a good chance to score against a Colts defense that has allowed 15 passing touchdowns over the last eight games. Going into the romp over the Texans, Bowe had scored in three of four games, with only an incidental penalty preventing him from going four for four.
Jacoby Jones vs NE - We’re getting deeper now, but Jones has appeal in any league where return yards and touchdowns are counted, and maybe even as an upside WR3/Flex PPR play. Jones has at least four catches in each of the last four games, and he adds a vertical threat and the promise of getting lesser coverage with Torrey Smith commanding the attention of the Patriots’ defensive game plan. He had three catches of over 20 yards in these two teams’ regular season meeting last year, and Joe Flacco always has success against the Patriots, so forces are aligning for Jones’ success this week.
Jeremy Kerley vs CLE - Now we are at the bottom of the barrel, but we’ve limped into the finals with a barebones lineup and had to scour the wire for a starting option before. Counting on Geno Smith or any part of the Jets passing game seems foolish, but if you want an “out of nowhere” play, Kerley fits the bill. The Browns have allowed two or more passing touchdowns in each of the last nine games, and more than two in four of them. In five of the last eight games, Cleveland has given up multiple wide receiver touchdowns, and they have allowed at least one in every one of those eight games. Kerley has been the most consistent receiver on the Jets roster (which isn’t saying much), but the likely absence of Joe Haden should make his job easier.
Tight End
Delanie Walker at JAX - Walker has been so consistent with Ryan Fitzpatrick that you shouldn’t need much encouragement to play him at Jacksonville this year, but if you do know that the Jaguars are almost as consistent when it comes to allowing the opposing tight end to rack up catches. An opposing tight end has caught at least four balls in 12 of 14 games, and Walker had four catches for 62 yards and a score in the first matchup between these two teams.
Charles Clay at BUF - The Patriots made a concerted effort to take away Clay last week, and they did except for a key fourth-down conversion. This week, he gets a Bills defense did limit him to one catch in their first meeting, but it was a touchdown catch. They have also allowed touchdowns to tight ends in each of the last four games, including scores by Tim Wright and Jeff Cumberland. Going into last week’s game, Clay had at least seven targets in each of the last five games, so expect Week 15 to be the exception, not the rule.
Zach Miller/Luke Willson vs ARI - The Cardinals defense is the gift that keeps on giving. Arizona has allowed an astounding 15 touchdowns to opposing tight ends, including one in four of the last five games, and four multi-touchdown games. Zach Miller scored in the first matchup of these teams, although he is nursing a rib injury, and Willson had a long touchdown two weeks ago against the 49ers. Both of them are well outside of the top 12, but they are good talents, with a good quarterback, in a good setting, with a great matchup.
Jermaine Gresham/Tyler Eifert vs MIN - This one was looking better before Jermaine Gresham practiced, but the Bengals tight ends still represent decent nonPPR hailmary plays at tight end because of the Vikings track record of being generous to opposing tight ends this year. They have given up 12 touchdowns to opposing tight ends this year, with a three-touchdown game by Jordan Cameron, a two-score game by Martellus Bennett, and two games where they surrendered a touchdown to two different tight ends. With immmobile Audie Cole at middle linebacker, the Vikings have seen opposing tight ends get 26 targets in the last two weeks, so look for lots of targets to Eifert and Gresham this week.
