The results in fantasy football contests might seem as random as ever after a set of games like Week 14, but as we close in on the championships of our leagues, we do have the advantage of more games and more data to search for trends in matchups and player performance. With upheaval at every position via injuries or poor performances over the last few weeks, putting the intersection of a player and his matchup under the microscope is more important than ever. Here are some matchups that you want to take advantage of in this playoff week:
Quarterback
Philip Rivers at Denver - Everyone knows that the Broncos are the highest scoring team in the league, but did you know that their opponents combine to be the seventh highest scoring team in the league? The Broncos up-tempo offense and ability to score almost at will forces opponents to open up their passing games. Luckily for Philip Rivers and company, the Chargers are getting healthy on the offensive line at just the right time. Left Tackle King Dunlap returned last week, and Rivers comfort zone in the pocket returned with him. Rivers has all hands on deck for this matchup, and the potential of a toe-to-toe slugfest with Peyton Manning should get his owners excited to play him this week.
Ryan Tannehill vs New England - Don’t look now, but the Dolphins are getting Tannehill more involved as a runner in the second half of the season for the second straight year. Tannehill has at least 20 rushing yards in each of the last four weeks, topped by a 48-yard run last week. The Patriots are trending in the other direction, with 14 passing touchdowns surrendered in the last six games, and that includes one game when they held Case Keenum to zero - in each of the other five games, the opposing passer threw at least two touchdown passes. Tannehill is clicking with his variety of weapons, and the Dolphins are usually content to run a pass-heavy offense through him instead of their two-headed backfield. Add in a South Florida setting that ensures no bad weather and you have a reason to start Tannehill for maybe the first time this year over options that were drafted ahead of him like Tony Romo.
Colin Kaepernick at Tampa Bay - Speaking of Florida weather, Kaepernick also gets the benefit of a December game in Sunshine State this week. It has been a bumpy ride for Kaepernick since a revelatory start to the season as a passer, but this week he gets a Tampa pass defense that has been a tonic for whatever ails most passing games this season. They shut down EJ Manuel (or rather Manuel shut himself down with poor play) last week, but before that Tampa surrendered multiple touchdown passes to the last eight quarterbacks they faced. None of those passers amassed fewer than 217 passing yards in those contests, and half of them - yes, four - scored a touchdown on the ground. Now that Kaepernick has Michael Crabtree back, there’s even more reason to like him as your QB1 this week.
Matt Ryan vs Washington - You can feel reasonably confident that Washington is going to give up a lot of points to the Falcons. No defense has allowed more points this year, and the team is complete disarray as they travel to the Georgia Dome. Ryan is trending in the right direction with a reasonable facsimile of a running game led by Steven Jackson, and something resembling Roddy White at wide receiver. Ryan has also been a much better passer at home than on the road this year, with a 10-1 TD:INT ratio in Atlanta against 11:12 away from home.
Running Back
Jordan Todman/Maurice Jones-Drew vs Buffalo - So it has come to this, starting Jordan Todman in the playoffs? There is a real chance that Jones-Drew misses the Week 15 game against the Bills, making Todman the starter. Todman was a preseason all-star and he has scored three times on only 50 touches this year. The Jaguars have become a solid team since an epically bad first half, winning four of five and playing much better defense along the way. Helping matter this week is a matchup against the worst quarterback on the field in Week 14 - EJ Manuel. Manuel has been a terrible road quarterback, and his defense isn’t helping him much these days. Running backs have scored in each of the last four games against them, and studs like Bilal Powell, Willis McGahee, and Bobby Rainey have all put up quality numbers against them.
Rashard Mendenhall/Andre Ellington at Tennessee - The Cardinals are clicking as a team, with a balanced offense and playmaking, run-stifling defense leading them to an 8-5 record, winning five of their last six games. The Titans are basically out of the playoffs and maybe on the verge of being broken up from top to bottom in a rebuild. Last week both Mendenhall and Ellington scored, and coincidentally both of the running backs that Tennessee faced (Montee Ball and Knowshon Moreno) also scored. In fact, the Titans have given up multiple scores on the ground in six of the last eight games. Both Cardinals backs make for good flex plays this week.
Pierre Thomas/Darren Sproles at St. Louis - Speaking of Arizona’s running backs each scoring last week, this week the Saints backfield gets to attack a Rams defense that appears to be running out of gas. The New Orleans backs tend to do better at home, but this week they’ll get the next best thing - a game in a dome. Darren Sproles excellent burst appeared to be back last week after he has been struggling with an ankle injury, and Thomas is an old warhorse who gives his all on every team. The Saints should amass a lot of points and yards by eroding a defense that stands little chance of slowing them down after the vaunted Panthers couldn’t do it last week. Either one of their dual threat backs are a great PPR flex this week.
Steven Jackson vs Washington - Jackson is a nice play for a lot of the same reasons that Matt Ryan is. Washington has given up the most points in the league, they just got gashed by the Chiefs to the tune of 189 rushing yards by backs and two scores, and they have given up multiple rushing scores in the four of the last five weeks. Jackson, meanwhile, is safely getting a feature back workload of 15-25 touches, and all goal line opportunities, which has allowed him to score three times in the last three games. He is basically back to the strong RB2 play we expected when he went in the second round of fantasy drafts this summer.
Rashad Jennings vs Kansas City - Even if Marcel Reece showed once again that he should be getting more work in the Raiders in the backfield, they are still going back to Jennings, who was cleared to play this weekend earlier this week. If you take out the debacle that Washington was against the Chiefs, they had allowed six scores to running backs during their three game losing streak, and the Bills duo had 193 rushing yards against them with Jeff Tuel at quarterback in a win the defense pulled out for them. The Chiefs are fading as a run defense, and Jennings has posted great numbers in each of his five games getting the majority of the Raiders running back touches. Four time he has had at least 100 total yards, and in the other game, he scored twice.
Chris Ogbonnaya/Fozzy Whittaker vs Chicago - There are few constants in fantasy football, but the Bears run defense playing matador has been one of them in 2013. Here are the rushing yards allowed to running backs over the eight games: 123, 136, 190, 146, 150, 196, 219, and 199. Willis McGahee would normally be the play here, but he is doubtful with a concussion, so the backfield duties will fall to the Longhorn duo. Ogbonnaya is the more talented back, but he is in the Stevan Ridley zone, where a fumble could prematurely end his day. Both backs will get a lot of work, and even if the Bears jump ahead on the back of their high-flying passing game, they will remain involved as receivers out of the backfield. It might be a surprise to even consider one of these Browns backs as a flex this week, but no one will be surprised if either or both of them put up solid fantasy numbers this week.
Wide Receiver
Brian Hartline, Mike Wallace vs New England - The Patriots defense hasn’t held an opponent under 24 points since Week 8, and even though that opponent was the Dolphins, we must remember that the offensive line was still in flux, and the Dolphins actually had a great first half in Foxboro. This week should see a lot more success for the Dolphins, especially through the air. Mike Wallace gets Aqib Talib, who was owned by Josh Gordon and Andre Johnson the last two weeks, and that means Brian Hartline will gets one of the lesser corners that have been giving up big plays to the likes of DeAndre Hopkins, Ted Ginn, Brandon LaFell, Jerricho Cotchery, and Emmanuel Sanders since that last Miami-New England tilt. Hartline is an especially comforting play in PPR leagues because he has caught at least five passes in each of the last five games. Wallace is more of the boom/bust play, but as we saw when Gordon ran away from Talib last week, it only takes one snap for the boom to happen.
Cecil Shorts vs Buffalo - Shorts hasn’t been putting spectacular numbers lately, and he only caught two passes against the Texans in Week 14, but he also drew a long pass interference penalty, and he did still manage to score for the second straight week. The Bills have given up eight 100+ yard days to wide receivers so far this year, and Jaguars quarterback Chad Henne has thrown two touchdowns in back-to-back games. The Jaguars have all of the momentum in this matchup, and that should mean good things for Shorts.
Torrey Smith at Detroit - It is hard to want to plug Smith back into your lineup after his one catch performance in the snow against the Vikings, but there be will no snow at Ford Field, and Smith is also going to face a team that is much more likely to get the Ravens into a shootout than the Vikings were last week. The Lions secondary is poor at just about every aspect of their job, and it shows in the big days by wide receivers against them in recent games. Tiquan Underwood (3-108-2), Antonio Brown (7-147-2), Brandon Marshall (7-139-2), Dez Bryant (3-72-2), AJ Green (6-155-1), James Jones (4-127-1), and even Jerome Simpson (7-140) have lit up this secondary for elite fantasy stat lines this year. Dennis Pitta’s presence makes it harder for the Lions to keep a safety dedicated to stopping Smith from getting behind the last line of defense. It should be a bounceback week for budding #1 receiver.
Dwayne Bowe at Oakland - After everything he has put you through, you’re finally going to trust Bowe in the most important fantasy week yet? Yes, yes you are. Bowe has been playing better as of late. You might even go as far as to say he looks mostly like his old self. Bowe has scored in three out of the last four games, and only an illegal formation penalty that wiped a touchdown off of the board in the second game against the Broncos kept him from finding paydirt in four straight games. Last week against Washington, Bowe was getting the downfield catches his owners have so sorely missed, but the Chiefs ran away and hid from their opponent so that the passing game was mothballed in the second half. This Raiders pass defense allowed seven passing touchdowns to Nick Foles and two 100-yard receiving games to the Titans group with Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing the ball at home in their last two games in the black hole. If anyone is going to have a huge day through the air against them in Week 15, it will be Bowe.
Riley Cooper at Minnesota - Cooper hasn’t come up big for his owners in three weeks now, but you can’t risk the big day he’ll have on your bench if you go away from him. Cooper has been tackled at the one-foot line, drawn pass interference in the end zone, lost a sure 80-yard touchdown in the air, drew a holding penalty when he got open for a would-be touchdown, and made any number of impressive players during his dry stretch since taking over the fantasy football world between Week 6 and Week 10. The last big deep threat the Vikings faced was Alshon Jeffery, and he had 12 catches for 249 yards and two scores against them. Need I say more?
Marques Colston at St. Louis - It was shocking to see Colston put up the #1 week of any wide receiver in Week 14 after not even rating in the top 40 through the first 13 weeks, but that shouldn’t discourage you from playing him this week. His big body and ball placement game with Drew Brees is very similar to the style of pitch-and-catch that Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald used to light up the Rams last week. Anquan Boldin had 9 for 98 in the previous week against St. Louis, and Brandon Marshall had 10 for 117 and a score the week before that. Colston’s style fits the kind of receiver that has had success against the Rams as of late, and are you really going to bet against Drew Brees in the fantasy playoffs?
Julian Edelman at Miami - Rob Gronkowski’s loss is Edelman’s gain, as there will be more targets to go around in the Patriots revived pass offense. Edelman has had three straight very productive weeks, and he is a trusted receiver on the largest variety of routes in the offense. He has been getting deep targets, short targets that set him up for run after catch opportunities and everything in between. The Dolphins vaunted pass rush couldn’t rattle Ben Roethlisberger last week - he threw a touchdown to each of his top three wide receivers. If Brady finds a wide receiver for a touchdown this week, it is likely to be Edelman.
James Jones, Jarrett Boykin at Dallas - This one only applies if Aaron Rodgers is back this weekend, but Rodgers took some first-team snaps in practice on Wednesday, so there is a chance that Jones and Boykin will be useful again this week. The Cowboys have had two of the most pathetic defensive performances you will ever see in their last four games, and they allowed 7-136 to Andre Holmes in one of the other two games. Jones and Boykin were each able to put up 100+ yard games with Rodgers before he went down, and they could both be good flex plays if Rodgers can go this week. Stay tuned.
Tight End
Charles Clay vs New England - What has gotten into Clay? His RB/FB/TE ‘tweener game has blossomed since he was basically put in the lineup by default after Dustin Keller went down in the preseason. His timing with Ryan Tannehill has been perfected, and rugged passcatcher turns into a power back after the catch. Clay has only fallen below 80 yards once in the last four games, and he has three scores over that span. The Patriots have allowed four tight end touchdowns in the last four games including one that saw Gary Barnidge run away from their defense last week. Look for Clay to stay hot in South Florida this week.
Jacob Tamme vs San Diego - This one is pretty simple. After Wes Welker left last week’s game, Tamme stepped into his slot receiver role and promptly posted four catches for 47 yards. Tamme has played with Manning for basically his whole career, so you know that chemistry is not an issue. Add to the picture that tight ends have scored in four of the last five games against the Chargers and it becomes easy to see that Tamme is one tight end on every waiver wire this week that could save your bacon if you are smarting after losing Rob Gronkowski last week.
Delanie Walker vs Arizona - Walker is cleared to play just in time for the best tight end matchup in the league as far as fantasy football is concerned. The Cardinals have allowed 14 touchdowns to tight ends, including four two-touchdown games. Walker was the apple of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s eye before going down with a concussion. He had 19 catches for 199 yards and two scores in the three previous games before getting hurt against the Colts, and the Cardinals struggles with tight ends this season indicate that he should pick up right where he left off in Week 15.
Antonio Gates/Ladarius Green at Denver - The Broncos are benching players and experiencing some injury woes on a defense that has given up big days to tight ends like Dallas Clark, Jason Witten, and Brandon Myers already this year. Keenan Allen is a little banged up, and the Chargers might not have the luxury of relying on the running game if they fall behind, so it just makes sense that more of the load for the passing game would fall on the shoulders of the future hall-of-famer and his soon-to-be replacement. Yes, Green disappeared for his owners last week, but different opponents call for different game plans, and if the Chargers want to keep pace with the Broncos this week, they’ll have to try to exploit the mismatch that Green presents no matter who he is on. Gates is the safe PPR play, and Green is the hail mary if you are forced to dig deep at tight end this week.
