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Buy Low
Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG, Danny Amendola, WR, NE - Obviously both of these wide receviers fell well short of expectations in 2013, but they are far from over the hill, and both have been playing hurt all season. Of course, one might argue that playing hurt is the normal state of affairs for this duo, but they probably each have at least 1-2 more seasons that will go much better than 2013 left in them. They are great dynasty buys when the offseason starter.
Alfred Morris, RB, Robert Griffin III III, QB, WAS - It can’t get much worse for this duo, but that should be your cue to buy in dynasty. We’ll look back at this season as the lost year for Robert Griffin III III. His long-term ceiling is intact, and he’ll benefit from a new head coach that is probably picked to suit him. Morris’s owners might worry about what he will look like with Mike Shanahan, but his game translates beyond the Shanahan offense. He’ll be fine and a centerpiece of any offense going forward.
Stevan Ridley, RB, NE - Ridley might be on the outs in New England, but his fumble issues haven’t been as egregious as his punishment suggests, and he is still an excellent runner with strong balance, good pace through the line, and a willingness to run hard in traffic. The 24-year-old has plenty of good football ahead of him.
Cecil Shorts, WR, JAX - Shorts has been hurt for a good part of the year, he has lacked a reason #2 receiver to draw coverage for a good part of the year, and he has been playing with Chad Henne for a good part of the year. He still looks good, and once a semblance of a pass offense is created in Jacksonville, he’ll ascend to perennial top 20 numbers. Shorts’ talent is far beyond what his numbers suggest at this early juncture of his career.
Sell High
Zach Ertz, TE, PHI - Ertz has proven to be the steady, sure-handed talent that he was on film at Stanford, but he hasn’t flashed in the kind of way that a tight end who would be a centerpiece of a pass offense would in their first year. Ertz probably has a future as a low-end fantasy TE1 who has more weekly variance than his peers because of the nature of the Chip Kelly offense that will skew run-heavy and emphasize downfield passing. If you can get an inflated price from someone that is sold on Ertz's future as a strong fantasy TE1, it might be worth cashing him in.
James Jones. WR, GB - Wring whatever dynasty value you can out of Jones before he suffers a potentiall Greg Jennings-esque fall from grace by entering free agency in 2014. The Packers could re-sign him again, but the emergence of Jarrett Boykin could cause them to invest elsewhere and reap more of the rewards of their ability to develop receivers.
Harry Douglas, WR, ATL - Douglas has taken advantage of some busted coverages and an offense that struggled looking for any kind of reliable play at wide receiver for a bit after Julio Jones went down, but he is just a role playing slot receiver at heart. Douglas’s future is probably similar to Nate Washington at the very best - in other words, someone who will never get over the hump to be an everyweek start.
Lamar Miller, RB, MIA - Remember the Lamar Miller hype this offseason? He hasn’t decisively outplayed Daniel Thomas, no matter what Thomas’s detractors will have you think. The Dolphins seemed reluctant to completely buy into Miller as a feature back, and the results this year have shown that they weren’t off their rockers when they decided that.
Dynasty Stash Wide Receivers
Now that we are in the end game of in-season management, it is time to start jettisoning your pure depth play for speculative holds. Each week as we get closer to the end of the season, I’ll give you my favorite candidates. This week, wide receivers. This list is ranked roughly by a combination of talent and potential upcoming opportunity:
Markus Wheaton, PIT, Marvin Jones, CIN, Marquise Goodwin, BUF, Kenny Stills, NO, Da’Rick Rogers, IND - This group is long gone in leagues with any sort of depth on the bench, but in short bench leagues, you might be able to find one or more on the waiver wire.
Stedman Bailey, STL - Bailey has quietly become the most reliable receiver on the Rams roster. He should emerge as one of the top targets next year. The Rams pass offense isn’t that robust, but Bailey should help improve it.
Josh Boyce, NE - Injuries to Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson have gotten playing time for Boyce, and even though the refs were blamed for a bad call, he did get a little separation deep on the play to set up the game-winner. He has the best speed of any Patriots receiver, and he might be hitting his stride.
Andre Holmes, OAK - Denarius Moore is back and limiting Holmes’ immediate opportunity, but Moore doesn’t seem to be held in very high regard by the current regime, and Holmes flashed rare size/speed/athleticism to be an excellent complement to Rod Streater.
Quinton Patton, SF - Anquan Boldin has been so good that the 49ers might bring him back in free agency, but if they don’t, Patton could work his way into a starting job in 2014. He flashed terrific pitch-and-catch chemistry with Colin Kaepernick in the preseason, and he might build on the connection in the offseason.
Lavon Brazill, IND - Brazill isn't as talented as Rogers, but he is further along in his development, and he has the Matt Waldman stamp of approval. Brazill is a little more explosive and elusive than Rogers, and the organization liked him enough to keep him through his four-game suspension to open the season even though he was only a sixth round pick in 2012.
Marquess Wilson, CHI - The Bears didn’t seem to care that Wilson quit the team at Washington State, and now he is set up to be the top backup wide receiver in one of the most potent pass offenses in the league. Wilson’s long, lean frame and ball skills make him an excellent fit for the Bears aggressive mindset.
Joseph Morgan, NO - Oh what could have been if Morgan hadn’t torn his ACL on a drag-down tackle by Kenny Vaccaro in training camp. With Lance Moore and Marques Colston both showing signs of age this year, Morgan is a restricted free agent in 2014, so the Saints can keep him in their system if they choose. If they do, he’ll be in line for a good role in a great passing game.
Junior Hemingway, KC - Hemingway reminded me of a poor man’s Alshon Jeffery at Michigan, and the Chiefs have already started to employ his “my ball mentality” in the end zone. Donnie Avery isn’t impressing anyone, and Hemingway has already passed AJ Jenkins on the depth chart. He could be starting in 2014.
