Buy Low
Dennis Johnson, RB, HOU (Redraft/Dynasty) - Johnson might be in for a big role in 2014 by default, and his excellent fit in the zone-blocking running game gives him a great opportunity right now. Arian Foster’s back issue is casting a long shadow over his future and Ben Tate is a free agent, so it’s not a stretch to see Johnson as a big part of the future at running back in Houston if he can capitalize on his current window of opportunity.
Torrey Smith, WR, BAL (Redraft/Dynasty) - A resident of the buy low column, let this serve as another reminder that the deep threat has a playoff schedule that includes the woeful Lions and Vikings secondaries. If he goes off the way that I think he could, Smith could be considered a dynasty commodity trending into WR1 territory. Remember, he’s only 24 years old.
Marquise Goodwin, WR, BUF (Redraft/Dynasty) - Don’t let Goodwin’s limited work in college and third-round pedigree fool you. He might be the fastest player in the NFL, and Goodwin is not afraid of contact or the physical side of the game. He is built like Steve Smith, not Tavon Austin, and Goodwin is already a hit in Buffalo, with EJ Manuel saying they need to give him the ball on more than just deep routes. He’ll stay in the buy low column until the fantasy world comes around to what his early-career success means for his future.
C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF (Redraft/Dynasty) - Spiller is rested, and he faces a schedule that should allow his elite acceleration and quicks to shine. He is still a dynasty cornerstone, but he might be available for less - at least until he reminds everyone exactly how he put up historic numbers in 2012.
Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN (Dynasty) - It seems odd to list Moreno as a dynasty buy low coming off of the best game of his career, but I sense that he is still not totally accepted as a long-term starting NFL running back in fantasy circles. No matter where he ends up next year, the 26-year-old has “arrived”. It’s best to forget how disappointing the first four years of his career were when assessing his long-term value,
Stevan Ridley, RB, NE (Dynasty) - Maybe this benching will cure Ridley’s fumbling problem! Probably not, but it also doesn’t change that he is the most talented between the tackles runner on the Patriots roster. The Patriots may employ more of a rotation for the rest of this year, but Ridley is firmly in their long-term plans, and his fumbling issue seems more random than evidence of a fatal flaw.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, TEN (Redraft) - Another reminder that Fitzpatrick might deliver titles against the Jaguars in week 16 to teams that have been scuffling at quarterback but managed to get in the payoffs. He has added upside via his willingness to run, and now Fitzpatrick has a bonafide deep threat in Justin Hunter.
Robert Griffin III III, QB, WAS (Dynasty) - In the future, we’ll talk about 2013 as the “lost year” in this talented players illustrious career. Griffin came back too early, and in the process kicked off an ugly process where the Shanaclan and Griffin seem to be headed for a divorce. Griffin has been playing terribly, but his offensive line and the playcalling have been lead weight life preservers for the drowning QB. He will be back to QB1 status in 2014, if not elite QB1 status.
Russell Wilson, QB, SEA (Redraft/Dynasty) - The Seattle Seahawks were barnstorming through defenses last year without Percy Harvin. Now that Harvin is at full speed and ready to be unleashed, all kinds of production could shake loose, and most of it intersects at Wilson. He was a top three producer in the second half of 2012, and he could easily pick right up where he left starting with Monday night at home against the Saints.
Victor Cruz, WR, NYG (Redraft/Dynasty) - Cruz bottomed out with a costly fumble and fantasy dud last week, but the Washington secondary cures all ills for wide receivers. Ask Anquan Boldin. The matchups against Chargers and Lions secondaries in weeks 14 and 16 are just as promising.
Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, MIN (Redraft) - I know I’ve been preaching to avoid the Vikings passing game altogether, but Patterson got the volume and quality of targets necessary to be a good WR3/Flex play in the playoffs if he can execute just a little better down the stretch. He is a good waiver wire pickup this week if you can’t afford Justin Hunter.
Martellus Bennett, TE, CHI (Dynasty) - Bennett’s “colorful” personality distracts from the fact that the black unicorn can ball. He is at the end of the line behind top-end talents in Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, and Matt Forte, but Bennett is an unheralded top-end pass-catching talent in his own right. Usually when the talent is there and opportunity is the only obstacle, opportunity eventually comes. Bennett is only 26, and he has a lot of good football ahead entering his prime.
Andre Ellington, RB, ARI (Dynasty) - David Dodds-lookalike Bruce Arians is doing something Dodds would never do - feed an inferior talent. Even a healthy Rashard Mendenhall doesn’t provide the game-breaking ability of Ellington, who can also mix it up between the tackles. Ellington as a raw talent has shown enough to project him as a strong fantasy RB2 in his prime, but his recent struggles may lower his price in the offseason unless he breaks another long touchdown or two before the end of the season.
Sell High
Josh Gordon, WR, CLE (Dynasty) - Gordon is an elite talent. He has a good chance of presiding in the WR1 tier for a long, long time. There are still shadows of the issues that caused him to be a supplemental draft pick and then get called out by multiple members of the organization as having one more chance this summer. He appears to have straightened everything out, but if you can use his garbage-time bonanza to make a lateral move to an AJ Green or Dez Bryant without much sweat, it’s an idea worth probing.
Eric Decker, WR, DEN (Dynasty) - Decker continues to look like a wide receiver whose production is created much more by situation than talent. Even if he returns to the Broncos in free agency next year, his value has probably already peaked. It could sink quickly if he doesn’t pick up his sluggish production pace over the last three weeks.
Mike Glennon, QB, TB (Dynasty) - I don’t doubt that Glennon has established himself as a starting quality NFL quarterback - which is a massive win for the Tampa organization, but he is just as likely to end up being a fantasy QB1 as his optimistic NFL comparison - Joe Flacco. Glennon buzz is at an all-time right now, so try to leverage that into a draft pick or prospect at another position if you don’t need the depth/youth at quarterback.
Nate Burleson, WR, DET (Redraft) - Burleson has been money in the bank when he has been on the field in PPR leagues, but his weekly ceiling is limited by his shorter routes and late-career burst. If he is in your top 3-4 wide receivers, keep him as useful depth, but if your redraft trade deadlines hasn’t passed, he’s good 2-for-1 cannon fodder.
Carson Palmer, QB, ARI (Redraft) - Palmer beat up the tomato can AFC South combo of Jacksonville and Indianapolis, but the rest of the season brings a trio of NFC West foes that will again expose the Cardinals offensive line and show that Palmer is in the late November of his career.
Dynasty Stash Running Backs
Now that we are in the end game of in-season management, it is time to start jettisoning your pure depth play for speculative holds. Each week as we get closer to the end of the season, I’ll give you my favorite candidates. This week, running backs. This list is ranked roughly by a combination of talent and potential upcoming opportunity:
Christine Michael, SEA/Marcus Lattimore, SF - Duh, but just in case for keeper leaguers who can keep waiver wire pickups at a cheap price in 2014.
Dion Lewis, CLE - Lewis has flashed in limited playing time, and he fits what the Browns seem to want to do with their running backs. I won’t be surprised if he is the most valuable fantasy running back on the Browns roster in 2014.
Latavius Murray, OAK - Rashad Jennings is playing the best football of his career, but he is a free agent. Murray went on IR early this year, but he could be developed as a contender to start next year if Jennings isn’t re-signed.
C.J. Anderson, DEN - Anderson fumbled an opportunity to shine in place of Montee Ball on Monday night, but the team still kept him on the active roster for a long time based on a very small sample in training camp, so they seem to like him. Anderson should be re-signed (or snapped up by another organization that likes him) even if he is cut for a sure-handed veteran (which seems long overdue) before the season is over.
LaMichael James, SF - James has a lot of juice in his legs, although he still seems to be a bit out of control. The second-round pick could be an offseason project to get more involved in the name adding speed and quickness to the 49ers offense.
Ryan Williams, ARI - I have no idea how Williams is good enough to be worth a roster spot, but not good enough to be active on game days even when Rashard Mendenhall is out. It’s like they are punishing him. He might be done for good, but I will happily add Williams if he is on the waiver wire when dynasty rosters expand in the offseason.
Kenjon Barner, CAR - None of the backs on the Panthers’ roster are signed at especially good terms or peaking in terms of effectiveness. I’m not a big fan of Barner, but he could get a shot by default in an offense that is still far from peak productivity.
Jordan Todman, JAX - Todman has stuck with the Jaguars and basically emerged as the backup to impending free agent Maurice Jones-Drew. Jones-Drew might be back, but Todman’s cheap contract means his return is a certainty.
Daryl Richardson, STL - Richardson has fallen out of favor in St. Louis, but a team looking for speed at running back could get this poor man’s Chris Johnson in their crosshairs if the Rams move on.
Lance Dunbar, DAL - Dunbar was a much faster and more physically formidable back this summer than he was in his rookie year, but injuries and fumbles have delayed his arrival. He still seems to be the favored backup in Dallas, so that could earn him more opportunity in the future.
Michael Ford, CHI - Michael Bush looks done, and Ford was very impressive in the preseason. Very possibly the handcuff to Matt Forte in 2014.
Michael Cox, NYG - Cox looked overwhelmed in his limited action, but he is a top-notch physical talent, and the game could slow down for him in year two. The Giants are keeping him despite his inability to contribute as a running back right now, so they must see him as a potential answer (at least partial) to a wide open backfield in 2014.
Chris Polk, PHI - Polk is not a dynamic back, but he has stuck with the Eagles over Dion Lewis, and he was considered a 2nd-3rd round level talent as a runner in addition to one of the 2012 draft’s best receiving running backs. He’s not a throwaway talent.
Mike Gilleslee, MIA - Gilleslee should be up on game days going forward with Daniel Thomas, so he could rocket up this list, or fall off of it. He is more of a “good at everything, great at nothing” back, so picking him up isn’t a top priority right now on a team that is not committed to the run.
Bernard Scott, BAL - The Ravens see enough in Scott to roster him, and he should be fully “back” from his 2012 ACL tear soon, so don’t discount the possibility that a team employs him as a regular change of pace back next year.
Ray Graham, PIT - I’ve always been a fan of Graham’s “power cutter” game, and he has bounced around practice squads and active rosters as an intriguing talent like his should. I still think that he could impress like Dennis Johnson (who beat him out in Houston) has if injuries open the door for him in Pittsburgh or elsewhere.
Rex Burkhead, CIN - Burkhead resembled the good Peyton Hillis when healthy at Nebraska, and the Bengals have kept him around, so they see it. Benjarvus Green-Ellis is a great lunchpail back, but Cincinnati might be open to seeing more of what Burkhead can offer as a power complement to Giovani Bernard next year.
Cierre Wood, NE - Wood smoked his way off of the Texans roster, but the Patriots were high enough on him to sign the Notre Dame product to their practice squad. Wood is a solid talent and he is on a team that seems to have perpetual instability at running back. His number could get called in the future.
