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Buy Low
Torrey Smith, WR, BAL (Redraft/Dynasty) - Smith hasn’t been as hot in the deep passing game as he was earlier in the season, but he has mustered at least 60 receiving yards or a score in each of his last four games, and he has Minnesota, Detroit, and New England up in the fantasy playoffs. At only 24 years old, he’s destined to be an elite wide receiver when he hits his prime, so he is an excellent acquisition in redraft or dynasty leagues.
C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF (Redraft/Dynasty) - We saw what a week off did for Spiller earlier in the season, so expect big numbers against creampuff defenses Atlanta and Jacksonville in week 13 and 15. His overall disappointing season has made his dynasty owners question what they have, so the bye week could be a chance to catch them in a weak moment if they are in a must-win situation.
Marquise Goodwin, WR, BUF (Redraft/Dynasty) - It seems odd to make a play for Goodwin in a dynasty league now that he has already started to break out, but you might still have a window to get him for as cheap as a 2nd round pick if his owners aren’t sure whether Goodwin is for real. He most definitely is, and should only get better as he is no long splitting time between football and a track career that led him to the 2012 Olympics. He could be an equalizer against weaker secondaries in the ideal conditions of an indoor game and two games in Florida from weeks 13-15.
Marvin Jones, WR, CIN (Dynasty) - Jones down weeks might make his mid-season break out seem like a fluke, but rest assured that his numbers were based on a foundation of talent, not luck. The last two games have seen windy conditions limit Andy Dalton’s downfield passing effectiveness. While Dalton could slow Jones’ rise to fantasy relevance, there’s no doubt that Jones will eventually be a fantasy factor. Try to get him during his bye, before he faces the poor tackling Chargers’ secondary in San Diego in week 13.
Trent Richardson, RB, IND (Dynasty) - Now that the Colts appear to have finally turned the reins over to Donald Brown, perhaps Richardson’s dynasty owners will give up the ghost in an attempt to cut their losses. Richardson hasn’t been running with urgency or otherwise leveraging his size and power advantage, but he is not the “bad” running back that some have made him out to be. At 23, he’ll still get more chances to be a starting running back, and if this disastrous season is a wake up call, he’ll deliver a terrific return on the major discount he represents right now.
Cecil Shorts, WR, JAX (Redraft/Dynasty) - Shorts is the squeaky wheel right now, so those targets to quiet him are sure to come against the Texans this week. Shorts has admirably played through painful injuries, and when targets have come his way, he has looked the part of the #1 receiver the Jaguars so sorely need with the failings of Justin Blackmon off of the field. This might be the best chance to acquire him in dyansty leagues for a while.
Santonio Holmes, WR, NYJ (Dynasty) - Holmes is fragile, flaky, and saddled with inconsistent quarterback play, but when he has been healthy this year, he has flashed the natural ball skills and body control that made him a WR1 for most of his career. At 29, he’s not washed up, and his game is not based on physical tools that erode at this point in a receiver’s career. He’s not worth giving up something of value, but as a throw-in or even a waiver wire pickup, his price might represent a great deal in dynasty leagues right now.
Roddy White, WR, ATL (Redraft/Dynasty) - This has basically been a lost season for White in fantasy, but he is far from washed up, and could look more like his old self against the Saints than he has all year. The last two weeks brought Richard Sherman and Darrelle Revis, but things get easier from here on out. White is an especially good target if he is on a dynasty team that is out of the playoff race.
Riley Cooper, WR, PHI (Redraft) - Cooper is not a fluke. He was tackled at the one, held on another play when he was open in the end zone, and just missed another big play last week. It was more of a fluke that he did not have a big game. With a favorable schedule left, the impending free agent is an excellent trade target if his owner is in a pinch at wide receiver for Cooper’s bye.
Mike Wallace, WR, MIA (Dynasty) - The perception of Wallace in the fantasy world has caught up to skeptical Steeler fans (like myself) who thought it was a good thing for the franchise to not pay market value to a receiver who was mostly a one-trick pony. He is still getting open deep, but Ryan Tannehill is not hooking up with him. While Wallace is not a fantasy WR1, or maybe even a fantasy WR3, he is not mostly bust boom/bust recevier he has been so far this year either. His perceived value has bottomed out, so make your move for Wallace before the team improves the offensive line and overall situation for him in the offseason.
Terrelle Pryor, QB, OAK (Dynasty) - Pryor’s fall has been almost as steep as his rise, and now he looks like he might need a second organization to get another shot to start. He still represents a fantasy commodity that can pay off on a scale many times your investment in him - especially now that he is seen as a failure. Pryor is only 24, and he’s the most physically gifted quarterback in the league. He will get another shot, and if he hits, he’ll hit huge.
Jordan Cameron, QB, CLE (Dynasty) - Cameron is still just as talented as he was when he was putting up big numbers, but as Greg Cosell pointed out, Jason Campbell appears to be too deliberate of a passer to feed Cameron. He is going to be a TE1 for a long time, and with a better quarterback, possibly an elite TE1 just below the Graham/Gronks of the world.
Sell High
Bobby Rainey, RB, TB (Redraft/Dynasty) - I’m not saying Rainey is going away, but I doubt his value is going to get higher. Especially in redraft, if you just picked him up out of due diligence and don’t *need* Rainey to patch up questionable running back depth, cash him in.
Ray Rice, RB, BAL (Redraft) - The Bears have been one of the weaker run defenses in the league. This week brings the best - the New York Jets. Rice restored some of his dyansty value, but if you have moved on from him in redraft and have the depth to not miss your first-round pick, it is a good idea to see what the biggest believer in your league will give for him.
Rashad Jennings, RB, OAK (Redraft/Dynasty) - Jennings has been playing the best football of his career by far, and even when Darren McFadden returns, he will hold onto a large role in the Oakland backfield. It is still going to be hard to trust him as anything but a feature back. Jennings is also on a one-year deal, so who knows what the future will bring for him. If he isn’t one of your top two backs, get what you can for him.
Chris Johnson, RB, TEN (Redraft/Dynasty) - Up, down, up, down. Johnson is up right now, and when the holes are there, he’ll stay up. It is still a gut-wrenching ride, and one that is best to disembark from if you can. Johnson is a landmine that your team can step on in any given week.
Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN (Redraft) - Peterson is hurt again, and he is directly blaming his injury for not being able to break off long runs. The last time he addressed an injury, he bounced back quickly, but there is a chance that his groin injury is related to the hernia he had in the second half of last year that was not reported until after the season. Between Christian Ponder, injuries, and the possibility of the team losing their edge (remember they were in a playoff hunt last year), Peterson represents more risk that his name brand would indicate right now.
Andre Brown, RB, NYG (Redraft/Dynasty) - Brown was a bit gimpy after one carry last week to remind us how frequently his injuries happen. He emerged unscathed, but there’s no doubt that Brown is one of the players along with Darren McFadden that will make you believe “injury prone” is a real thing. If he is your only hope at running back, hold and hope for the best, otherwise, keep shopping him right up to the deadline.
Dynasty Stashes - Quarterback
Now that we are in the end game of in-season management, it is time to start jettisoning your pure depth play for speculative holds. Each week as we get closer to the end of the season, I’ll give you my favorite candidates. This week, quarterbacks, which is not fertile ground to farm in dynasty leagues. A growing number of viable options makes them have little trade value outside of elite options, and it is too easy to find depth or a fill-in on the waiver wire during the season. Still, there are a few worth holding:
Brian Hoyer, QB, CLE - Hoyer decisively proved that he is a starting caliber NFL quarterback before tearing his ACL. It happened early enough in the season that he should be ready to compete for a starting job in 2014 Browns training camp (he is under contract), and I expect him to win that job in Cleveland.
Ryan Mallett, QB, NE - Mallett is going into the final year of his rookie contract next year, so expect the trade talks to heat up near the trade - that is unless the Patriots have intents on keeping him as the eventual replacement for Tom Brady. We scoffed at all of the made-up trade buzz on Hoyer, the last Patriots backup to allegedly get attention from other teams. Now that Hoyer has panned out, maybe we shouldn’t shrug off the possibility of Mallett starting somewhere next year.