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Arizona
QB: Carson Palmer can be adequate bye/injury/emergency quarterback material in the Bruce Arians offense with Larry Fitzgerald, but the poor quality of offensive tackles keeps him from being more in this passing bonanza phase of the NFL. He’s willing and able to hang in and make downfield throws under fire, but that won’t be easy against the NFC West’s fierce array of pass rushers….Drew Stanton hasn’t done much in his NFL career, but his presence makes the debacle of Larry Fitzgerald’s fantasy value in 2012 much less likely in the event of a Palmer injury.
RB: I’ll admit it, Rashard Mendenhall was looking as good as any Cardinals back in at least a decade, but then Jonathan Cooper went down with a broken leg and Mendenhall felt “looseness” in his knee. I like to fire my bullets at running back on running games I believe in, and this became a difficult proposition once again in Arizona. I won’t take Mendenhall until the 9th or later….Alfonso Smith was ultra-competent in the preseason, and Ryan Williams hung on the roster, so the situation behind Mendenhall is as muddy as ever. I still think Andre Ellington was underrated by the whole league, but he’s mired in a committee for the foreseeable future.
WR: I wasn’t on the Larry Fitzgerald express earlier in the offseason, but Arians seems to have successfully found ways to deploy him in a similar fashion to the ones that put Reggie Wayne’s numbers into WR1 territory for a good stretch of 2012. He’s worth a third-round pick as a mid-WR1….Michael Floyd wasn’t prominent in the mind of Carson Palmer, and he might not get many deep targets if the running game and pass blocking struggle. He might have some big games and a 1000-yard season at the end of the year, but with maddening inconsistency week-to-week….Andre Roberts has deep PPR league appeal because he seems to be the target that will be the short-intermediate read, and he also has the speed and quicks to turn those targets into good gains. He’s a consideration around the same time Jeremy Kerley or Dexter McCluster would go off of the board.
TE: Rob Housler has a high ankle sprain, and when he wasn’t quiet in the preseason, he was dropping passes. It isn’t going to happen - at least this year - for Housler.
St. Louis
QB: I wish I trusted offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer enough to believe that Bradford will be piloting something like an effective pro version of the type of offense he ran at Oklahoma. Bradford could be on the edge of QB1 numbers as long as his line holds up, because they don’t have a backfield that is built to be prominent in the offensive game plan. He’s a fine backup if you want to be one of the last teams to take one.
RB: Daryl Richardson pulled away from Isaiah Pead and Zac Stacy, but how much of it was them falling back? Richardson’s fifth/sixth-round ADP balances the risk of his smaller frame and limited track record against the opportunity presented in the backfield, but I prefer the surer things or higher ceilings available at wide receiver in those rounds….Neither of Pead and Stacy is worth a roster spot in any but the deepest of redraft leagues. They have given us to reason to roster them at this moment.
WR: Chris Givens was a standout until the third preseason game, but he still showed enough to be worth a pick in the seventh/eighth round. Givens has a proven deep game already. With more targets in the short passing game, he could approach very similar value to Torrey and Steve Smith...Tavon Austin wasn’t a hit in the preseason, but his role is ready-made for PPR numbers that spike his fantasy value. If he has a Darren Sproles-esque “slot back” role with lots of short targets that are effectively running plays, Austin will approach, if not surpass 80 catches….Austin Pettis is a replacement-level wide receiver, so Brian Quick’s inability to leapfrog him should tell you what you need to know about Quick’s value this year.
TE: Peter King joined the “wow Jared Cook is a physical specimen” club, and he’s on a team that paid elite level money for his services, but it’s still hard to feel like he’ll have consistent enough targets or performance to be a quality TE1. His 8th/9th round ADP means the cost is very reasonable as an anchor to a TEBC approach, and it’s not a bad strategy if you miss on Gronkowski and Graham.
San Francisco
QB: Colin Kaepernick looks comfortable as a passer as long as he isn’t stationary in the pocket. He seems to have an instant connection with Quinton Patton, and he’s certainly built well to hold up in the running game. He’s as fine a QB12 as any, but I do worry that the 49ers’ ability to win games without relying on big production from him could dampen Kaepernick’s weekly upside.
RB: Frank Gore is not going to inspire visions of a surprise RB1 season, but he could be 80-90% of what Marshawn Lynch is going to be for Seattle, but available two rounds later. Gore didn’t break down last year after the 49ers paced his workload, and he is running behind one of the best offensive lines in the league with one of the best defenses in the league on the other side of the ball to keep the game scripts on run-friendly paths. He’s a fine RB2 if you take a wide receiver or Jimmy Graham in the first two rounds….Kendall Hunter is healthy again, and worth a pick after the 15th round as a talented backup in a plug and play running game….LaMichael James has a knee injury that will likely limit or sideline him early in the season, so he’ll be on the waiver wire speed dial list in PPR leagues once he’s healthy.
WR: I really liked what I saw between rookie fourth-round pick Quinton Patton and Kaepernick in the third preseason game. The top end of the outlook for Anquan Boldin gets a little dimmer with this in mind, and could be more like Lance Moore than Reggie Wayne in terms of week-to-week production and consistency. The 49ers don’t have that many targets to go around in the passing game, and Michael Crabtree will likely return in time to make playing Boldin unattractive in the fantasy playoffs….Patton should be on the waiver wire speed dial list in case he and Kaepernick catch fire early, but it’s still just the third target in a pass offense that only throws about 25 times a game….Crabtree’s timeline to return is still fuzzy and again, it’s a somewhat weak pass offense. He’s only worth stashing away in deep leagues with long benches.
Seattle
QB: Russell Wilson has some of the same concerns as Kaepernick. His team can cruise to wins without his derring-do. One big difference to me is that Wilson seems to be very comfortable both freelancing and taking defenses apart from the pocket. He isn’t the runner than Kaepernick is, so on the whole they are roughly the same commodity in redraft leagues. I would be a little more excited about Wilson falling to me at QB12.
RB: Christine Michael flashed the very rare combination of elite physical tools and an aggressive mindset that could make him an RB1 by 2015, if not earlier. It’s hard to resist taking him in the end game rounds because he might actually be even better than Marshawn Lynch, and produce like a top 15-20 back even in a timeshare with Robert Turbin if Lynch goes down. If Michael can even get his foot in the door with 3-5 touches in a typical game, he might do so well that the Seahawks feed him even more - and they did lead the league in rush attempts last year….Lynch is a boring, but effective pick near the ½ turn. The Seahawks should be a winning and very good offensive team, which sets a back like Lynch up for another 1500-yard, 10+ touchdown season on the ground….Turbin would be a terrific backup to target if Michael hadn’t have been drafted. Like Michael, he could present RB2 value even in a timeshare after an injury to Lynch….Don’t forget that fullback and Matt Waldman favorite Spencer Ware is also talented enough to excel if injuries somehow put him in the spotlight.
WR: Sidney Rice was already nursing an injury as camp was getting underway and went to Switzerland for a “treatment” and Percy Harvin ended up having to get his hip surgically repaired, so camp standout Golden Tate is the best wideout to target him - but not until the 10th or later. Russell Wilson is good enough to make Tate a strong WR3, but Harvin will eventually return and ding Tate’s value in time for the fantasy playoffs…. Speaking of Harvin, he is definitely worth stashing in leagues with 20 or more roster spots. He is a special player and you’ll want him in your lineup as soon as he is back. He’ll justify the opportunity cost as long as he is back for the fantasy playoffs….Rice has great value in theory as the jumpball and red zone target for a quarterback as good as Wilson, but he is making me feel insecure about his ability to hold up coming off of a rare 16-game season. Rice also tailed off late last year, so he’s only a consideration in the 11th or later.... Stephen Williams flashed some Rice-esque ability on those deep 50-50 balls in the preseason, scoring with regularity, but he also suffered a concussion in the fourth preseason game. Remember his name if Rice goes down.
TE: Zach Miller has the ability and quarterback to be a fantasy TE1, and we saw how it can happen again in the furious comeback attempt against the Falcons in the playoffs. Miller also tore the plantar fascia in one of his feet during that game, and he was still dealing with that injury when camp opened. It kept him out for all of training camp, and he also has a history of multiple concussions. He’s just a waiver wire speed dial name….Fifth-round pick Luke Willson could inherit that potentially productive role if Miller breaks down, and he should be stashed away in TE premium and deep dyansty leagues.