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The month that encompasses training camp and the first three weeks of the preseason is must-see TV for any fantasy football player. We come into the summer with a set of assumptions and beliefs about the NFL, and each successive day changes the landscape and forces us to re-examine our strategies and rankings going into our drafts. What do we think we know at this crucial juncture before the biggest fantasy draft weekend of the year?
Denver
QB: Peyton Manning is set up for one of the two or three best statistical seasons of his career. He has the best trio of receivers in the NFL and one of the worst backfields in the NFL. The offense is showing more uptempo looks, and the defense will be without its best player for the first six games. Waiting at quarterback will be rewarded, but taking Manning in the fifth will also be rewarded, especially in six point per pass TD leagues.
RB: This is one of the best fantasy situations in the league, and it is being wasted on a mediocre trio of backs who wouldn’t be even be backup worthy on many teams. Montee Ball hasn’t been able to pass protect or get good gains with any consistency, but he’ll likely get the touchdowns. Ronnie Hillman has been coughing up the ball with catastrophic consequences. Knowshon Moreno is still painfully competent - which would be good enough for strong RB2 numbers if John Fox didn’t sound insistent on playing Hillman and Ball didn’t loom as a touchdown vulture. Moreno is worth a late pick, otherwise stay away near current ADP (Ball 4th, Hillman 9th/10th). CJ Anderson remains as a worthy deep dynasty stash with the buzz he created before he hurt his knee.
WR: With this offense looking to tilt pass-heavy, Eric Decker has become an attractive target in the 5th/6th round…..Wes Welker is still going a wee bit high on reputation, wouldn’t take consider him until the 6th….Demaryius Thomas could indeed be a monster worthy of a 2nd round pick. I don’t like to go wide receiver early, but Thomas’s ceiling is just a little below Dez Bryant’s.
TE: Julius Thomas is a talented passcatching tight end in a Peyton Manning offense. Even if he loses a lot of snaps to Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen, when Thomas is on the field, his job will be to run a route, and maybe catch the ball. He’s a terrific late-round target in a TEBC approach.
Kansas City
QB: Alex Smith might end up being a new man under Andy Reid, but he looked like the same old timid quarterback in the preseason. He’s not challenging the defense downfield, and he should only be considered a bye/injury QB2 with little upside…. Tyler Bray had the most live arm of any quarterback in the 2013 class, so if he hangs on the final 53, he’ll be worth watching on a team with no “quarterback of the future” while Smith is the quarterback of the present.
RB: Jamaal Charles survived his injury scare, and he should be improved by virtue of at least competent quarterback play and offensive coaching, along with more involvement in the passing game and a #1 overall offensive tackle added to the line. With no secondary receivers or tight ends emerging as targets, he might approach Ray Rice/LeSean McCoy receptions numbers. He’s an easy top five pick…. Knile Davis is the backup and he’d have instant value if Charles gets hurt, but he is a fumbler and he’s not a good receiver out of the backfield.
WR: Dwayne Bowe isn’t going to threaten any career-highs in yardage or touchdowns with Alex Smith throwing the ball. He might get a lot of receptions, but Smith is not going to throw 50/50 balls up for him or otherwise take risks to get Bowe’s immense talent into play in tight quarters. He’s a solid WR2 to target in the fifth round or so, but not more….Jon Baldwin is gone, but don’t assume that’s because the team loves Donnie Avery. If there’s going to be a second fantasy relevant wide receiver to come out of this passing game, it will be Dexter McCluster in PPR leagues, but we all know how counting on McCluster to rise has gone before. He’s just a waiver wire speed dial name for now.
TE: Travis Kelce has been banged up, Tony Moeaki is out indefinitely with a broken shoulder, and Anthony Fasano is Anthony Fasano. Fasano could be a surprise solid backup fantasy tight end, but he lacks the upside to break into the TE1 ranks.
Oakland
QB: The Raiders coaches have to start Terrelle Pryor. He electrified his teammates and the stadium, putting up a near QB1 fantasy stat line in just a few quarters of play. He’ll be facing a lot of garbage time defenses, and he’s not afraid to run. He is an outstanding 2QB/Superflex late-pick, and he has the potential to be more….Matt Flynn’s destiny is to be a backup quarterback. Like Matt Moore, he might be a very competent backup, but he’ll never create enough confidence to truly win a starting job for long.
RB: Darren McFadden might actually be helped by Pryor and the running threat he presents to distract defenses. He still has to play for the worst team in the league that just lost its best player - an offensive lineman. He might blow up in a few games this year, but he’s just as likely to blow up your team’s chances of winning with an injury or a dud…. Rashad Jennings is the backup, but it’s hard to imagine him making any noise if/when McFadden goes out. It’s too bad this team seems unwilling to make Marcel Reece the #2 running back again, but he might still gain flex value in PPR leagues any time McFadden is out.
WR: Talk about a wasteland. With Pryor likely at quarterback, perhaps Denarius Moore ascends to a boom/bust WR3 with the quarterback’s arm strength and ability to string plays out. Pryor will at least add a deep passing game that fits Moore much better than Flynn could…. Rod Streater was looking like the provisional #1, but he suffered a concussion last week and Pryor will make it hard for him to have consistent numbers. Streater might be worth a very late pick in PPR leagues….Size/speed prospect Brice Butler has had a great camp, and he’s the wideout to watch here in deep dynasty leagues.
TE: David Ausberry had a few Vernon Davis moments last year, but he hasn’t been able to get much of anything going in the preseason since hurting his shoulder two weeks ago….Rookie Mychal Rivera should get the most targets of the remaining tight ends, but this offense isn’t going to produce a fantasy relevant tight end.
San Diego
QB: Philip Rivers is not going to be much more comfortable behind this line than he was behind the terrible 2012 edition. He’s just a low-end backup fantasy quarterback who will be fighting an uphill battle this year….Brad Sorensen flashed some good arm strength and pocket presence this preseason. He might be the backup here sooner than later.
RB: Ryan Mathews did look strong, swift, and ready to run in the preseason, but this team isn’t going to set him up for many big games - that is assuming he stays healthy. The Chargers might have trouble building and nursing leads, and the defense isn’t going to scare many opponents. Mathews might find his game, but how often will he really get on track….Danny Woodhead is going to be a big part of the passing game. He and Rivers seemed to be on the same page in the third preseason game. 50+ receptions is not a stretch with this team likely to play a lot of football in catchup mode.
WR: Vincent Brown was banged during camp and didn’t make the “future #1” impact and impression we had heard about in the offseason. He’s just a bench pick in PPR leagues after the 10th round….Malcom Floyd had an injury scare, but he should be back for week 1, and he has years and years of chemistry with Philip Rivers. He will only have bye/injury/emergency value, but he’ll also keep any other target from breaking out as long as he is on the field….Keenan Allen is actually a good fit in a short-passing offense, but he didn’t steal the show in the preseason. He got on the field with Eddie Royal and Floyd out, but failed to impress.
TE: Antonio Gates looks a little slower and stiffer than he did last year, which basically marked his falling off of the TE1 level into the bye/injury backup fantasy group. He’s not going to help your team much with any consistency this year. Big game could come with lots of catchup football, but its just as likely that his contribution diminishes as the year goes on….Ladarius Green, on the other hand, has a real chance to at least show what he can do for the future as a big, athletic slot tight end. He had his moments in the preseason and should be stashed away in deep and TE premium leagues.
