Photo: Matt Kartozian, USA Today Sports

The month that encompasses training camp and the first three weeks of the preseason is must-see TV for any fantasy football player. We come into the summer with a set of assumptions and beliefs about the NFL, and each successive day changes the landscape and forces us to re-examine our strategies and rankings going into our drafts. What do we think we know at this crucial juncture before the biggest fantasy draft weekend of the year?

Houston

QB: Matt Schaub looks as comfortable and confident as ever, and he adds the best WR2 of his career in DeAndre Hopkins. With an expectation that the Texans will pass a little more this year, look for Schaub to be a high-floor backup fantasy quarterback who will flirt with low QB1 numbers.

RB: Welp, Arian Foster didn’t play in the third preseason game, so you have to take him out of the elite tier of running backs. There is no reason to absorb his injury risk when backs with just as much upside as much less risk are there in the top 6-8 picks. I’d be willing to take Foster at the turn, and open to taking Ben Tate if my wide receiver targets were gone in the seventh….Speaking of Tate, he looks as good as ever, and the Texans could ride him more early in the season to preserve Foster and get their money’s worth in a contract year. He’s one of my “20 Players That Could Make Your Draft” (http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=bloomplayersmakedraft).... The Texans have one of the most important RB3’s to know in fantasy football, and right now it looks like former Jaguar Deji Karim will be that guy. We won’t know for sure until this weekend, so check back in next week to learn the identity of the most likely unlikely fantasy stud running back in 2013.

WR: If Andre Johnson lost a half-step, then he had more than a half-step to spare. He’s still a very solid WR1 in PPR leagues, although his targets could take a slight dip with the emergence of DeAndre Hopkins….Hopkins does have a pretty serious concussion, so he could start slow this year. He’s worth a bench wide receiver pick in the 10th round or later, but his value will be capped at WR3/Flex level production unless Johnson misses time - which is far from impossible...Keshawn Martin is progressing into a nice Davone Bess-type slot receiver/return man. He could be a decent PPR receiver if either starter misses significant time.

TE: Owen Daniels is past his prime and Garrett Graham is a Daniels clone, but younger (although banged up right now). Daniels’ upside is limited in a very talented group of low TE1/high TE2 prospects, and probably not worth a pick except as a firewall for a risky Jared Cook or Jermichael Finley TE1 pick….File away the fact that Graham would have more value than Daniels currently has if Daniels misses time.

Indianapolis

QB: Andrew Luck certainly has the potential to break into the top five fantasy quarterbacks this year with an improved offensive line, but he was inconsistent for long stretches of 2012. He did look tuned in during the preseason, so I won’t talk you out of taking him as QB7 or QB8 as long as it’s the sixth round or later.

RB: Ahmad Bradshaw wasn’t healthy enough to play in the preseason, but knowing him he’ll stay healthy enough to play at least 12-14 games, shortcircuiting the value of any other back in this backfield. Bradshaw also has the look of a back who will have to have his workload managed all season. I don’t want any part of this group in fantasy drafts unless Bradshaw falls to the ninth or tenth round. He won’t…. Vick Ballard didn’t look better than Donald Brown, and the Colts brass didn’t want to start him in a QB-centric offense. He’s barely worth a last-round pick.

WR: Reggie Wayne tailed off at the end of 2012, but he should be strong enough for long enough in 2013 to be worth a pick as your WR2/WR3 in the fifth round of drafts….TY Hilton is clearly the second best talent in the wide receiver corps, but the team wants to see what they got in Darrius Heyward-Bey. Hilton is an excellent upside WR4/Flex if you can get him in the 8th round or later, and a bonafide return yards league stud. Heyward-Bey is just a very late-round flier…. The Colts are very weak at wide receiver after their top three, so any extra production that is freed up by wide receiver injury will likely spill over to the tight ends.

TE: Dwayne Allen had a foot issue that sounded scary at first, but shouldn’t sideline him for week 1. Coby Fleener looked bad and suffered a concussion and minor knee injury in the preseason. Allen is the much better upside Colts TE to target as your upside TE2, but Fleener might be worth a pick in the last round as TE3 in deeper leagues or TE premium leagues just in case he magically “gets it” early on.

Jacksonville

QB: Blaine Gabbert got hurt, but still pretty easily beat out Chad Henne. He’s a fantasy non-factor, but the Jags do seem inclined to run an uptempo offense, so you never know….Henne is still one of the more capable backups in the league, and a Gabbert injury/demotion would mean good things for the Jacksonville passcatchers. Henne even had rosterable fantasy value himself after he took over in 2012.

RB: Maurice Jones-Drew looks like his old self, and he has produced through more adverse conditions than what he’ll face this year. Running back is deep enough that he’s not an RB1 this year, but he is a perfectly fine second-round pick. He feels like the kind of player that it is unwise to bet against….Justin Forsett isn’t healthy right now, and Jordan Todman is likely to follow the 2012 Jaguars backup running back cavalcade of fantasy duds if Jones-Drew misses time. There is no handcuff worth looking at here.

WR: Cecil Shorts was impressing and ruling this wide receiver corps before his calf injury. He has high WR2 upside at a WR3 price in the seventh round or later….Justin Blackmon finally got back on the field after his groin sidelined him early in camp and the preseason. He has WR2 upside in PPR leagues despite his early four-game suspension, and we should remember that Cecil Shorts had two concussions late in 2012. Blackmon is a terrific upside stash in 10th round or later of PPR leagues, as long as you have at least 20 roster spots. Shifty slot receiver/return man rookie Ace Sanders and QB-to-WR convert Mike Brown were the most impressive secondary receivers in training camp, and either could emerge as a solid dynasty stash and rosterable player in very deep leagues while Blackmon is out.

TE: Marcedes Lewis’s only hope to be draftable this year was Chad Henne and his bolder passing mindset winning the starting job. He might have bye/injury/emergency value, but that’s about it for this player who was once a TE1 in fantasy leagues.

Tennessee

QB: Jake Locker improved as the preseason went on, but it’s hard to imagine him piloting an effective pass offense. The Titans don’t seem to inclined to expose him as a read option quarterback, so his fantasy value is drying up unless he takes a big step forward. He’s only worth a roster spot in QB flex and 2 QB leagues.

RB: Chris Johnson looked more like good old CJ2K than he has at any point in the last two years. The revamped offensive line deserves a big assist, but Shonn Greene still looms at the goal line, and Johnson has burned us before. I’ll take him in the third, but not the second….Greene has mid-RB2 value in the event of a Johnson injury, but he is still isn’t even in the top 10 backups that I am targeting after the 12th round.

WR: Kenny Britt flashed some of 2011 Britt in camp and preseason, and that player was dominant in a Dez Bryant/Demaryius Thomas kind of way. The upside is too good to pass up in the eighth round….Kendall Wright was a little more electric than he was in an underwhelming rookie year, but a knee injury stopped his momentum. He doesn’t stand out in a great group of wide receivers in the 40-60 range. I would only think about him in the 13th round or later of PPR leagues….Nate Washington is hanging around enough to hurt Wright’s value, but not enough to create value of his own.

TE: Delanie Walker has been out for the whole preseason with a knee issue and probably won’t even be rosterable in deep and TE premium leagues this year….I’m still holding Taylor Thompson in those leagues, but I want to see something from him soon or I’ll be dropping him.