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The month that encompasses training camp and the first three weeks of the preseason is must-see TV for any fantasy football player. We come into the summer with a set of assumptions and beliefs about the NFL, and each successive day changes the landscape and forces us to re-examine our strategies and rankings going into our drafts. What do we think we know at this crucial juncture before the biggest fantasy draft weekend of the year?
Baltimore
QB: Joe Flacco looked terrific in the hurry-up, but struggled after that. You get no fantasy points for salary. He’s barely rosterable with the depth at quarterback this year. The offense will run through the backfield this year.
RB: Ray Rice looked like good old Ray Rice, but he didn’t at the end of last season. I still have him outside of the top six running backs, but barely….Part of the reason is that Bernard Pierce looks great. The team kills two birds with one stone by giving Pierce 150-200 carries: Add fresh talented legs to the running game and keeping Rice fresh longer into the season. Don’t think that makes Pierce an attractive 8th/9th round pick. Without a Rice injury, Pierce will just be a matchup flex play. If he’s more, that would be disastrous for Rice’s value.
WR: Torrey Smith probably going to be a peaks and valleys ride all year, a la Vincent Jackson. He will draw an inordinate amount of attention from the secondary, but he is still talented enough to have some very big days. I’m still buying in the 6th round...No one else in this wide receiver corps will be of consequence, although there is opportunity there for Brandon Stokley to catch 70 balls. UDFA Marlon Brown is the most intriguing player to watch from a deep dynasty perspective in this open situation.
TE: Ed Dickson has never been that dazzling in his early career anyway, but the addition of Dallas Clark could kill what little chance there was of Dickson generating TE1 numbers and consistency. The hamstring injury doesn’t help matters. There are a lot more attractive tight ends to target late in your draft.
Cincinnati
QB: I am intrigued by Andy Dalton’s fantasy potential with this set of weapons and an aggressive mindset from offensive coordinator Jay Gruden. He can be a fantasy success while he still doesn’t take a big step forward against the toughest defenses and situations. He is a nice quarterback to pair with Michael Vick in a QBBC. 4000/30 is not a stretch for him this year.
RB: Giovani Bernard’s preseason sure looked like one of rookie who makes a big early impact in his offense. He has strong RB2 upside in PPR leagues and should get as many snaps as Benjarvus Green-Ellis, if not more….Green-Ellis’s upside is capped at low RB2, even in the event of a Bernard injury. He’s a good bench depth running back, but that is not the kind of commodity that helps you win championships. Only take in the 10th or later.
WR: AJ Green survived the first injury scare of camp and returned in preseason week 3 to reassure owners that he is still worth an early 2nd round pick in PPR leagues. Dez Bryant leapfrogged him, but he is still one of the few truly elite fantasy receivers….Mohamed Sanu looked good, but he’ll probably need to have a James Jones-esque double-digit touchdown season to be relevant. He’s on waiver wire speed dial….Marvin Jones had a terrible fumble deep in the red zone in the dress rehearsal game, but he had very marginal redraft value anyway. He is best-suited to be a deep ball catcher, and that’s not Dalton’s game….Andrew Hawkins doesn’t seem that close to returning, and might move to the back seat in spread set with the emergence of Tyler Eifert anyway.
TE: Jermaine Gresham will probably still have top 15-20 numbers at worst at the end of the season, but he offers very little the way of week-to-week upside. I generally avoid him because he doesn’t fit the upside TE profile, and there are much better high floor picks in the later rounds….Tyler Eifert could (should?) emerge as the #2 receiving option in the offense, and he has a ready-made skillset for the red zone. He is a terrific pick in a TEBC approach.
Cleveland
QB: In any other year, Brandon Weeden might have some deep sleeper appeal in an offense that is much better for his abilities, but he’ll start out without Josh Gordon and the team will still mix in a heavy dose of Trent Richardson….This is no quarterback controversy, and there was never really any competition.
RB: After an offseason with some shadows cast about Richardson’s durability, the preseason ended up painting a picture of Richardson as an ascending RB1. He wasn’t putting on a show, but he was on the field and running hard, which is enough for a top six pick when you consider his talent and situation….Dion Lewis was looking like a Sproles lite in the Norv Turner offense, but his broken fibula shut that down. The backup situation is clear as mud and probably will not yield a startable player if Richardson misses time.
WR: There were a lot of murmurs about Josh Gordon having “one more chance” going into camp, and it looks like he used that chance to remind the Browns just how rare of a talent he could be in the future. He’ll miss two games, but he can be a high WR2 if he hits, so pencil him in behind Kenny Britt as your swing for the fences wide receiver in the 7th/8th….Davone Bess is riffing with Brandon Weeden, so that’s not great news for Greg Little, who fell off the drops wagon this preseason after a good finish to 2011. I like Little’s long-term upside enough to hold him in dynasty leagues, but he’s dropping on my redraft board…..I’m looking forward to watching Travis Benjamin in the first two games from a dynasty perspective. He has game-breaking speed and toughness despite a smallish frame.
TE: Jordan Cameron had a couple of scores to set his ADP on fire in week 2 of the preseason, but he cooled off in week 3 and never really looked like a transcendent talent. He definitely has mid-low TE1 upside because of the weakness of the position, but Jared Cook and Jermichael Finley have higher ceilings, and many tight ends going after Cameron have just as high a ceiling. He’s only worth a pick in the 10th or later as part of a TEBC.
Pittsburgh
QB: Ben Roethlisberger looks to be a solid high-floor backup quarterback, but definitely not more in Todd Haley’s dink-and-dunk offense. He might not lose that much going from Mike Wallace to Markus Wheaton, but his offensive line is still weak on the edges, and the injuries have been piling up. I would shoot for Eli Manning or Andy Dalton before, or Matt Schaub after.
RB: Le’Veon Bell was out of a walking boot just a week after his injury? Mike Tomlin wouldn’t commit to a return timeframe, but it is looking better for Bell. The Steelers running game was bad last year, and there aren’t signs that it is going to get that much better, so Bell still doesn’t look like a good gamble to me until the 8th or 9th round at the earliest….Just forget the rest of the Steelers backfield. It’s a mess, the team will mix in all of the backs when Bell is out, and once again, the running game is not that good to begin with.
WR: Antonio Brown looked like a #1 and he was targeted like a #1 in the third preseason game. He’s a fine high floor WR2/WR3 pick in the sixth round, but I wouldn’t reach for him before that…. Emmanuel Sanders will be a solid #2 receiver with good bye/injury/emergency value as a pick in the 12th round or later, but third-round Markus Wheaton could be on the field a lot and targeted almost as often as Sanders. With Sanders’ history of foot problems, Wheaton might be the better pick in next-to-last or last round, as he is just now getting on the radar in many drafts.
TE: The Steelers rushed Rashard Mendenhall back last year and he was never able to contribute much to the team. Heath Miller might not start the year on the PUP, but they will take it slower with him. Only draft Miller if you are going TEBC in a league with very deep benches. David Paulson is the backup, but he offers little in the way of fantasy upside.