The month that encompasses training camp and the first three weeks of the preseason is must-see TV for any fantasy football player. We come into the summer with a set of assumptions and beliefs about the NFL, and each successive day changes the landscape and forces us to re-examine our strategies and rankings going into our drafts. What do we think we know at this crucial juncture before the biggest fantasy draft weekend of the year?
New England
QB: We were worried about Tom Brady earlier in the offseason because he was going to have to replace about 70% of last year’s targets with a new cast. The worry looks unfounded, and Brady is still worth a pick as one of the top five quarterbacks off of the board, especially in 6 pt per pass touchdown leagues.
RB: Stevan Ridley could build on a surprise solid RB2 campaign in 2012 behind an offensive line that has looked near dominant as a run-blocking unit at times in the preseason…..Shane Vereen clearly has the potential to play a Bush/Sproles-type role in the offense and has flashed enough to merit his 5th round ADP in PPR leagues.
WR: Danny Amendola is a perfect fit with Tom Brady and he is set up for career numbers…..Undrafted rookie Kenbrell Thompkins has emerged as the secondary targets to fill the roles vacate by Brandon Lloyd. He deserves consideration from the 10th round on, but is going earlier than that in a lot of leagues…..Josh Boyce will make the team and get enough opportunities to make an impression to be worth carrying in dynasty leagues….. Thompkins has short-circuited Julian Edelman’s immediate sleeper appeal, but he has stayed healthy and will back up the oft-injured Danny Amendola in a high volume role…..Aaron Dobson’s one-speed runner, jumpball skillset will limit his role in the offense this year.
TE: Zach Sudfeld is taking over the Aaron Hernandez role, and he is talented enough to be a low TE1 (if not more) as long as he stays healthy (which is far from guaranteed with his long injury history)....Look for the Pats to lean on Sudfeld long after Gronkowski returns, because the 2TE set creates optimum balance by setting up the run and pass with equal aplomb…..Speaking of that return, it looks like Gronkowski will not go on the PUP, which means his 3rd/4th round ADP is more than justified.
Buffalo
QB: EJ Manuel looked great before he had to go out with a knee procedure. His running ability combined with the uptempo offense and team speed spreading out of the field makes him an excellent late-round upside backup QB pick. If Manuel gets hurt in-season, it will be interesting to see how head coach Doug Marrone and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett inventively deal with it.
RB: CJ Spiller gave us no reason to think that he won’t live up to his top five ADP. This offense is perfectly suited for his explosive playmaking ability. Remember what Vince Young did for Chris Johnson…..Fred Jackson started slow, but he is worth his 2+ million salary and might have flex value without a Spiller injury. If Spiller does miss time, Jackson is an instant top 15 running back.
WR: EJ Manuel is going to have rough patches as a passer, and if he goes down, the passing game will look 2012 Arizona or Kansas City. If his hamstring injury wasn’t enough to get you off of taking Stevie Johnson, let that finish the job…..Marquise Goodwin is one of the ten fastest players in the NFL and he could have a surprisingly big impact early. He’s still only worth a look in return yardage leagues…. Da’Rick Rogers was a disappointment and is likely to get cut. He should land on a practice squad somewhere, but he is only a deep dynasty stash at this point….. Robert Woods has the game to be a strong #2 wide receiver in the future, but his redraft value is marginal as this pass offense is in its infancy.
TE: Scott Chandler is making a terrific recovery from an ACL tear, but he is still off of the radar in a very deep year at tight end…. Chris Gragg didn’t make a big impact in the preseason, but he fits too well in this offense’s design to discount his potential in TE premium dynasty leagues. I’ll be watching to see if the Bills feel comfortable exposing him by trying to put him on the practice squad.
Miami
QB: Ryan Tannehill could make as big of a step as any second-year quarterback this year, and the talk of him not being on the same page as Mike Wallace has ended up being overblown. His running ability and derring-do on extended plays make him an excellent upside QB2 you can get very late in drafts.
RB: This Lamar Miller/Daniel Thomas “competition” just reeks of the kind of situation where we wish we have stuck with our original evaluation. Miller is good enough to have strong RB3/Flex value in a timeshare, and as long as he stays healthy, he’ll seize the starting job very soon. Don’t let him fall past the fifth round…. Thomas has looked better, but he has low RB2 upside even if Miller gets hurt. He’s still not worth a pick before the 15th round, and maybe not at all if guys like Roy Helu, Christine Michael, and Michael Bush are still there that late....Keep an eye on who wins the Mike Gilleslee vs. Jonas Gray RB3 battle, because the Dolphins have of the most unproven RB1/RB2 combos in the league.
WR: The Dolphins have shown a willingness to use Mike Wallace in more ways than the Steelers did, and he’s actually looking pretty good in the process. Tannehill is just as ideal for him as Roethlisberger when it comes to keeping plays alive, keeping his eyes downfield on the move, and being willing to try anything. He still blends in with guys like Torrey Smith and Steve Smith on my board, but he is more tempting in the 7th than he was a few weeks ago. He probably won’t fall that far….Brian Hartline is still Tannehill’s “security blanket”, giving him nice “high floor WR3/Flex” value in PPR leagues. He’s a terrific target after the 12th round if you have a lot of risk in your earlier WR picks….Brandon Gibson will be the primary slot receiver with Dustin Keller gone for the year, but he only has marginal value and only in very deep PPR leagues. His upside is capped at WR3/Flex even if a starter goes down.
TE: Don’t go prospecting for any redraft value here without Dustin Keller in the picture, but do keep an eye on Dion Sims in dynasty leagues. He’s a big-framed receiver with terrific balance as a blocker and receiver. He could be an Alge Crumpler-type for Tannehill in the future.
NY Jets
QB: Oy vey. Geno Smith is going to have a chance to prove the doubters right or wrong at some point this year, and early indications are that it won’t be pretty. He could cobble together fantasy-relevant numbers if he is allowed to run by design, but…Oy vey….Mark Sanchez may end up being the quarterback by default, but either way, the passing game will likely be limp for fantasy purposes.
RB: Chris Ivory was actually able to stay healthy for the rest of August after hamstring issues sidelined him early in camp, but the grossness of the Jets offense overshadowed that pleasant surprise. This offensive line doesn’t look as good as the one that made Shonn Greene a low RB2 last year, so Ivory has little to no appeal before the eighth round….Bilal Powell is the most likely backup running back to start more games than the starter this year, but he’ll still just be a flex play in the best-case scenario, so don’t take him before higher upside backups like Joique Bell, Jacquizz Rodgers, and trio mentioned in the Miami RB takes.
WR: It would be easy to say avoid here, but Chase Stuart favorite Jeremy Kerley does have some WR3/Flex potential in PPR leagues as the best pass-catcher on the team….Santonio Holmes appeared to milking his lis franc recovery to get out of training camp, but it is certainly possible that he really won’t be his Pittsburgh Steelers self again. The time to cut him in dynasty leagues is soon approaching….Stephen Hill has latent value as the guy Smith targets when he is extending plays or just trying to make something happen, but he’s not worth a redraft pick. Getting value out of Hill will take some patience in dynasty leagues.
TE: If you have to start Jeff Cumberland at any point this year…. Oy vey.