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Rankings are a good place to start your fantasy football draft preparation, but they don't convey the true landscape of a group of a players at a position without the added dimension of tiers. Tiers collect players of similar expected value and show how the difference between #5 and #10 on a list can be bigger than the difference between #10 and #25. An early look at the tight end tiers this year reveals a lot of quality at the TE2 level to mitigate taking a riskier TE1.
THE TE1
- Jimmy Graham, NO
The injured wrist that limited him in 2012 has been surgically repaired. Go back and look at his 2011 numbers to get the correct baseline for his 2013 projection. Remember that this is only his fifth year of big-time football. He’s worth a pick in the second half of the first round of PPR leagues, and I won’t argue against taking him #1 in TE premium leagues. Please don't pass on him in the second round on PPR leagues.
THE other TE1... Maybe... Probably
- Rob Gronkowski, NE
Yes, back surgery and we don’t know exactly when he’ll be ready to play. The latest reports put him back around week 3 or 4. The Pats are still going to err on side of not putting him on the PUP, and it’s very easy to cover any early missed games because of the tremendous depth at tight end this year in fantasy drafts. I would take him in the fifth round of PPR leagues with a flex position even (especially) if I already had taken Graham. You take the only real Graham stopper out of play, and you get a top 5 wide receiver-level producer at flex when Gronkowski returns.
Strong TE1
- Jason Witten, DAL
- Tony Gonzalez, ATL
- Vernon Davis, SF
Witten is safe, but not exciting because he doesn’t score touchdowns. Gonzalez is a little more exciting because he scores more often than Witten, but there’s always the risk of Father Time and “one more year” catching up with him. Gonzalez is still relatively safe and a good pick if you can get him in the sixth round. The sixth round is also the sweet spot for Davis, who has upside to separate himself from this tier if the 49ers follow through on using him more like a wide receiver.
High Ceiling Low TE1
- Jared Cook, STL
- Jermichael Finley, GB
The talent is there to break into the top five for both these players, but both have given us more reasons to doubt them than reasons to trust them over the last two seasons. Finley has been getting rave reviews and producing the preseason, but how much of that is because Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson are sidelined? Peter King has drooled all over Cook, and the Rams seem open to a more pass-happy offense, but why didn't Cook click in four years in Tennessee? I would think about either one of these guys in the eighth or ninth round if I was relegated to going TEBC because I didn't grab one of the top five.
High Floor Low TE1
- Kyle Rudolph, MIN
- Greg Olsen, CAR
High Ceiling TE2
- Dwayne Allen, IND
- Jordan Cameron, CLE
- Zach Sudfeld, NE
- Julius Thomas, DEN
- Fred Davis, WAS
- Tyler Eifert, CIN
- Coby Fleener, IND
- Zach Ertz, PHI
I would be totally fine going into the season with two (preferrably three, assuming you have 20 roster spots) of the names on this list. Cameron might be going in the top 10, which he could deliver on, but I don't know that his ceiling is significantly higher than Allen, Sudfeld, or Thomas's. Allen's foot injury is getting better, and Coby Fleener is doing nothing to earn Luck's trust at the NFL level (hence being at the bottom of this tier). Sudfeld looks better every time I ponder the intersection of his skills and the openings in the Patriots offense. Davis looks great, but his upside wasn't as high as we had hoped before he went down last year. Eifert is intriguing as the second-best pass-catching talent in Cincinnati - the only question is whether he'll get the targets. Fleener has upside in theory, but until he follows through on the field, it's just that - in our minds. Ertz might surprise us all by being the top red zone target in Chip Kelly's offense. I have my doubts about how he'll translate, but the possibility he hits is worth one of your last picks if you need tight end help.
TE2 Depth Plays
- Owen Daniels, HOU
- Martellus Bennett, CHI
- Antonio Gates, SD
- Brandon Pettigrew, DET
- Myers, Brandon, NYG
- Jermaine Gresham, CIN
I'm not feeling Owen Daniels this year. He's a depth tight end with Garrett Graham coming on and the Texans finally having a viable WR2 in DeAndre Hopkins. Bennett's upside is capped at low TE1, as is Gates's. Pettigrew will get a ton of targets, but I don't feel confident that he'll do more than he did with them last year. Myers has inherited a pretty good role in New York, but it's looking like garbage time was a bigger contributor to his very good 2012 numbers than his talent. Gresham will take a back seat to Eifert in the target pecking order. All of these guys are good bye/week/emergency plays and possibly barely adequate TE1's, but I don't see them fitting into a winning draft plan.
TE Sleepers
- Travis Kelce, KC
- Rob Housler, ARI
- Ladarius Green, SD
- James Casey, PHI
- Brent Celek, PHI
- Zach Miller, SEA
- Marcedes Lewis, JAX
- Delanie Walker, TEN
- Ed Dickson, BAL
- Heath Miller, PIT
It feels like someone in Kansas City could be the Brent Celek surprise fantasy factor in the new Andy Reid offense. Kelce is the most talented, and worth stashing in deep or TE premium leagues. I can't warm to Housler as the fourth target in a Bruce Arians offense. Green has been coming on and could help fill the void left by Danario Alexander. Casey was an early offseason target for Chip Kelly, and he was ultra-productive in college. Zach Miller has the talent to produce, but he's coming apart at the seams and Seattle barely used him as a receiver last year until the playoffs. Heath Miller could be a low TE1 when he comes back, but he'll clog up a valuable roster spot in the meantime. The rest of this group has lower ceilings, but some potential use in deep or TE-premium leagues.
TE Deep Sleepers
- David Ausberry, OAK
- Tony Moeaki/Anthony Fasano, KC
- Jeff Cumberland, NYJ
- Luke Willson, SEA
- Dion Sims/Charles Clay, MIA
This is group of situations as much as it is players. Oakland, Kansas City, New York, and Miami are all voids at the tight end position, but there's a remote chance someone emerges there. Seattle might be a void if Zach Miller breaks down, and Willson is a very talented, athletic passcatcher.
In Case of Starter Injury, Break Glass
- Ben Watson, NO
- Garrett Graham, HOU
Both of these players have the requisite talent to produce at least TE2 numbers if the starters go down ahead of them.