Rankings are a good place to start your fantasy football draft preparation, but they don't convey the true landscape of a group of a players at a position without the added dimension of “tiers”. Tiers collect players of similar expected value and show how the difference between #10 and #20 on a list is bigger than the difference between #20 and #30. An early look at the running back tiers this year reveals a deeper group of potential RB1 and RB2 candidates than we saw in 2012 and a lot more than can give your strategy at the position much more nuance in early drafts.
THE RB1
- Adrian Peterson, MIN
I won't be shocked if Adrian Peterson isn't the #1 running back at the end of the season. Stuff happens. It's still easy to say that Peterson should be the first pick. He was producing at singularly historic levels in the second half of the 2012 season, and he wasn't even a year removed from a catastrophic knee injury. Using “career/historic year dropoff” type knocks on Peterson as the #1 pick ignore that he destroyed every “year N+1 after ACL surgery dropoff” knock last year. He doesn't have the PPR punch of some of the backs below him, but I'm not betting against Peterson after he set records playing with the worst pass offense in the league.
Elite RB1
- LeSean McCoy, PHI
- Doug Martin, TB
- Jamaal Charles, KC
- Arian Foster, HOU
- C.J. Spiller, BUF
- Trent Richardson, CLE
- Ray Rice, BAL
- Marshawn Lynch, SEA
All of these players present very strong outlooks and top 3-5 upside. We can quibble over which we like or doubt most based on any number of factors, but the bottom line here is that all of these guys are presumptive RB1 level producers any time they take the field. Richardson's durability question, Lynch's lack of PPR punch, and Bernard Pierce's emergence next to Rice are keeping that trio in a mini-tier in the second half of the first round, but the top five seem to be interchangeable in early drafts. Martin is the safest pick, but other than his outburst vs. Oakland last year, he was mostly a mid-to-low RB1 at best from week-to-week.
Low RB1/High RB2
- Matt Forte, CHI
- Steven Jackson, ATL
- Reggie Bush, DET
- Darren Sproles, NO
- Alfred Morris, WAS
- Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX
- Frank Gore, SF
- Stevan Ridley, NE
- Demarco Murray, DAL
Much like their elite peers, this is a group of running backs that you know you will want in your lineup every week. They go about getting their production in a variety of ways, but with their roles and surrounding offenses, this tier is highly likely to give you baseline PPR RB2 production at worst with elite RB1 upside in any given week. Any of this group has the potential finish in the back half of the top 10 and give you a passable RB1 on a team that is very strong elsewhere. Morris, Gore, and Ridley lack PPR punch, but they are #1 running backs on winning teams that run the ball very well. The depth at running back this year makes going away from the position in the first or second round a palatable proposition. I won't argue vigorously against any reshuffling of this group except that Gore belongs in it, and Chris Johnson doesn't. Gore is presenting the biggest value by far, often falling to the third, or even fourth round.
Boom/Bust RB2
- David Wilson, NYG
- Chris Johnson, TEN
- Eddie Lacy, GB
- Darren McFadden, OAK
High Upside RB3 with RB2 potential
- Lamar Miller, MIA
- Shane Vereen, NE
- Giovani Bernard, CIN
- Daryl Richardson, STL
Low Upside RB3 with RB2 potential
- DeAngelo Williams, CAR
- Chris Ivory, NYJ
- Montee Ball, DEN
- Ahmad Bradshaw, IND
- Ryan Mathews, SD
It's hard to imagine anyone in this group really hitting it big based on what we know right now, but all are in line for roles that should at least give them flex value, if not mid-to-low RB2 starter status. Williams will lose some scores on the ground to Cam Newton and Mike Tolbert, but he'll likely not lose many snaps to Jonathan Stewart. Ivory could add more juice to the role Shonn Greene turned into RB2 production last year, but he has to stay healthy. Ball could rack up touchdowns, but he'll share the backfield with Ronnie Hillman. Bradshaw is the best running back on the Colts roster, but it sounds like his workload will have to be managed to keep him healthy, and even that might not work. Mathews is looking good, but it's hard to see any running back excelling in what passes for an offense in San Diego.
Matchup Flex Plays with RB1 injury upside
- Fred Jackson, BUF
- Ben Tate, HOU
- Bernard Pierce, BAL
- Danny Woodhead, SD
- Benjarvus Green-Ellis, CIN
- Mark Ingram, NO
- Ronnie Hillman, DEN
- Pierre Thomas, NO
Upside Bench Running Backs
- Bryce Brown, PHI
- Rashard Mendenhall, ARI
- Le'Veon Bell, PIT
- Joique Bell, DET
- Jacquizz Rodgers, ATL
- Bilal Powell, NYJ
Hold and Hope
- Christine Michael, SEA
- Michael Bush, CHI
- Roy Helu, WAS
- Vick Ballard, IND
- Jonathan Stewart, CAR
- LaMichael James, SF
- DuJuan Harris, GB
- Kendall Hunter, SF
- Knowshon Moreno, DEN
- LeGarrette Blount, NE
- Shonn Greene, TEN
- Daniel Thomas, MIA
- Johnathan Franklin, GB
- Knile Davis, KC
- Isaac Redman, PIT
- Jonathan Dwyer, PIT
- Chris Polk, PHI
- Mike Tolbert, CAR
- Toby Gerhart, MIN
- Lance Dunbar, DAL
Deep Sea Fishing
- Marcel Reece, OAK
- Latavius Murray, OAK
- Robert Turbin, SEA
- Brandon Bolden, NE
- Stepfan Taylor, ARI
- Andre Ellington, ARI
- Isaiah Pead, STL
- Zac Stacy, STL
- Mikel Leshoure, DET
- Justin Forsett, JAX
If the earlier tiers don't fill out your bench because you're in a very deep league, here are a few more rosterable running backs with some conceivable path to value based on talent and situation.