We hear it every year, but it's really true this time: Quarterback is so deep that the fantasy football gods are practically begging you to be the last team in your draft to take yours. You might even be able to get away with allowing a few of your rivals to take their backups before you take your starter if there is a running back, wide receiver, or tight end that is too tempting to pass on. Don't believe it? Take a look for yourself:
Elite
- Drew Brees, NO
- Aaron Rodgers, GB
- Peyton Manning, DEN
- Cam Newton, CAR
All of these guys are near locks to be Top 10 on a points-per-game basis and in pretty much any given week, and any of them could be No. 1. Brees gets head coach Sean Payton back. Manning adds Wes Welker and might be piloting an uptempo spread offense, although he has the highest risk of being on the bench for part of week 16. Newton finished strong and could carry that over to 2013. If you feel so inclined to take a quarterback early, aim for Brees in the third, Manning in the fourth, or Newton in the fifth.
On the Cusp of Elite
- Tom Brady, NE
- Matt Ryan, ATL
- Russell Wilson, SEA
- Robert Griffin III III, WAS
- Tony Romo, DAL
- Andrew Luck, IND
- Colin Kaepernick, SF
- Matthew Stafford, DET
This set of quarterbacks will be available 2-3 rounds later than the elite options (if not more), and any of them could produce like the elite options. Each has an issue that keeps them from the top tier: Brady's potential to be relying on rookies if Gronkowski and Amendola can't stay healthy, Griffin's knee, Ryan's propensity to have an unexpected stinker, Wilson and Kaepernick's teams having more balanced offenses, Luck's rookie season inconsistency, Romo's lack of a top five finish since 2007, and Stafford's regression in 2012. Ordering this group is tough, and it may come down to your scoring system. In a 12-team league, you are guaranteed one of these guys as QB12, and that's a beautiful thing. At this moment, you're lucky to get Wilson or Romo as QB12 - like taking candy from a baby in the seventh or eighth round. You may even feel inclined to let QB12 slide another round or two, because the prospect of going QBBC isn't that scary this year.
Boom/Bust QB1
- Michael Vick, PHI
Vick will be a QB1 in any game that he starts and finishes. Of course, you can almost guarantee some missed time due to injury, and that includes the risk of him leaving a game at any time. So you take on that risk in exchange for getting your QB1 a few rounds later than anyone else. Vick is also your backup plan if you decide to let QB12 ride for a round or two and a leaguemate decides to take their backup before you take your starter.
High Floor QB2
- Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
- Eli Manning, NYG
- Matt Schaub, HOU
This trio doesn't have the elite upside of the group on the cusp, but they will likely give you between low QB1 and mid QB2 numbers weekly, with elite upside in any given week and a long track record of adequate to great production. They make waiting one more round when only one or two on-the-cusp options are left a reasonable proposition in a 14-team league. They are also a perfect counterpart to Vick in a QBBC.
High Ceiling QB2
- Andy Dalton, CIN
- Josh Freeman, TB
- EJ Manuel, BUF
- Ryan Tannehill, MIA
- Jay Cutler, CHI
- Sam Bradford, STL
- Alex Smith, KC
- Terrelle Pryor, OAK
Bench Fodder in Deep Leagues
- Carson Palmer, ARI
- Philip Rivers, SD
- Joe Flacco, BAL
- Jake Locker, TEN
- Brandon Weeden, CLE
I'm still too worried about the line in front of Palmer to pencil him in as an upside QB2. Rivers' line looks even worse, and he lost his best receiver. Flacco's offense looks like a run-heavy unit, and he lacks any legitimate #2 receiver. Locker has theoretical upside if they use him as a read option running quarterback, but his development seems to be very slow for a third-year passer. Weeden has looked terrific so far in the preseason, but he still probably has mid-QB2 upside in even the best scenario.
Waiver Wire Speed Dial
- Geno Smith, NYJ
- Chad Henne, JAX
- Nick Foles, PHI
All four of these quarterbacks will probably start at some point this season even if they don't start week 1. Smith has good running ability and might be used as a read option quarterback. Henne put up solid numbers as the Jags starter for the second half of the 2012 season. Foles will be piloting the Chip Kelly offense when Vick goes down.
