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Our cup overfloweth at wide receiver, with most of the elite talents just getting into their prime, a new crop of emerging talents from the 2013 season, and one of the deepest and most talented draft classes in memory on tap. Dynasty stocks will start to move again when free agency opens, but we can still take a snapshot of the current picture while 2013 is still somewhat fresh in our heads. You can always find all of the Footballguys staffers dynasty rankings here.
elite
1. Calvin Johnson, DET - Still the one
2. A.J. Green, CIN - Has established elite production as baseline
3. Josh Gordon, CLE - QB proof, but in for a big upgrade anyway
4. Demaryius Thomas, DEN - Can see as high as 2
5. Dez Bryant, DAL - Hasn't hit ceiling yet
6. Julio Jones, ATL - Foot a little worrisome, but was putting it together before he went down.
This group is not easy to sort out, but they are clearly the cream of the crop right now. All but Johnson are just getting into their best seasons. All but Gordon have at least adequate-to-good quarterbacks, and Gordon seems impervious to QB spoilage. Megatron is probably at or just past his physical peak and he takes more hits than any top wide receiver in the game. I don't care, he is still producing at a level that no wide receiver in the game has before him. Any of the five names below him have the potential to join Johnson at those previously unseen heights - especially Gordon with a better quarterback, Thomas with no Decker.
Standing on the Verge
7. Randall Cobb, GB - Turns 24 in August. Game and QB for perennial 100 rec/10+ TD season
8. Alshon Jeffery, CHI - QB, offense, development are a perfect storm
9. Keenan Allen, SD - #1 in good offense with good QB and will only get better
Congratulations if you have one of these players. The best is yet to come, and what you have now is already a low-end WR1. Jeffery has the skillset like the rest of the elite, but Cobb and Allen have plum situations and excellent skillsets for the jobs they are asked to do.
Peak Producers
10. Antonio Brown, PIT - 2013 might be an anamoly, but still a strong WR2 at worst and only turning 26
11. Victor Cruz, NYG - New offense should feature him. Don't let Giants poor 2013 color view of Cruz
12. Brandon Marshall, CHI - Turning into a co-#1, but still steady and consistent as they come
13. Jordy Nelson, GB - Has been an elite producer with Rodgers when healthy since 2011
14. Pierre Garcon, WAS - Foot issue seems to be behind him and RG3 will only improve from 2013 level
15. DeSean Jackson, PHI - Blossomed in Chip Kelly offense
This group represents steady low-end WR1/high-end WR2 value going forward, and there's no reason to think that they won't give you that for the foreseeable future. Ideally you have one of them in a WR2 slot, but they are viable WR1, and unfair as a WR3. Garcon and Jackson might be undervalued, and potentially available for cheaper than you think if their owners covet an extra first-round pick to take another shot at this wide receiver class.
enigmas and the north of 30 bunch
16. Percy Harvin, SEA - Earning injury-prone label and Seahawks will remain run-first
17. Vincent Jackson, TB - Bright spot in a down year, playing best football of career in age 30 season
18. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI - Don't bet on Hall of Fame talents dropping off sooner than later, Was hurt in 2013
19. Torrey Smith, BAL - Just turned 25, needs Flacco to dial in deep ball and a quality second target
20. Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN - Norv could make him a monster if he gets a quarterback
21. TY Hilton, IND - Ideal QB situation, but only broke out without Wayne
22. Michael Crabtree, SF - Run-first offense and Boldin could be back, but hasn't hit ceiling yet
23. Michael Floyd, ARI - Hitting his stride and very good talent, but injury derailed breakout
24. Mike Wallace, MIA - If Tannehill improves deep accuracy, will approach WR1 numbers
25. Cecil Shorts, JAX - Underrated talent needs to stay healthy, but QB upgrade coming soon
26. Roddy White, ATL - 2013 a lost year, and trade value waning, but 1-3 top 20 years left
27. Andre Johnson, HOU - Playing at very high level, but QB could be rough and TDs rare
28. Dwayne Bowe, KC - Signs of life as season went on, but might be in FF death spiral
29. Eric Decker, FA - Value might nosedive if he leaves Denver
This is a group where you can make or lose some money in trades this offseason. Harvin and Crabtree's 2013 injuries could just be hiccups on the way to elite production, or they might be worth selling now to overeager backers who will pay WR1 value. Fitzgerald and Jackson seem undervalued because of age, but anyone who trades for White or Johnson might feel like they were overvalued very soon. Hilton, Patterson, Smith, Floyd, and Shorts could take big leaps in 2014 with consistent QB play and good health. Wallace, Bowe, and Decker are all boom/bust bets based on your faith (or lack thereof) in Ryan Tannehill, Bowe, and where Decker ends up in free agency. If you have anyone in this group, double check your assumptions about their future against the most optimistic views and determine whether it is time to seek a buyer.
Likewise, If you have any very strong positive views on anyone in this group that you don't own, now is the time to strike. Trading away Cordarrelle Patterson could end up being a very smart or very foolish move in hindsight, but the point is that there is likely a big gap up or down between his "split the difference" value now and where he is in a year. The 30+ group might be had for surprisingly cheap from a rebuilding owner.
calculated risks
30. Jeremy Maclin, FA - Destination uncertainty and inability to put it all together so far, but could hit with PHI
31. DeAndre Hopkins, HOU - Played tailed off despite good overall numbers plus QB uncertainty
32. Justin Blackmon, JAX - Was faster, stronger than 2012, but bottom could drop out at any moment
33. Tavon Austin, STL - Finally flashed game-breaking ability, but pass offense a mess
34. Julian Edelman, FA - Was a WR1 when offense got on track, undervalued assuming he returns to NE
You're embraving some uncertainty, but reason for optimism if you are holding or buying this group. Signs point to Maclin returning to Philadelphia, which would be great for his value. Hopkins' value doesn't currently reflect the choppy nature of his rookie year and situation, so he might be a good sell high for someone in the group above. Blackmon has the highest ceiling and by far the highest risk. He might already be worthless and we just don't know it yet, but his off field issues overshadowed a short stint when he looked like he made as much progress as Alshon Jeffery in the offseason. Austin had his moments, but can anything grow in the muck of St. Louis's passsing game? Edelman won fantasy leagues for a lot of people, but the fantasy world seems very reluctant to accept him.
2014 breakout candidates
35. Justin Hunter, TEN - Flashed pre-ACL tear athleticism, but only for fleeting few games. Still has risk
36. Markus Wheaton, PIT - I believe Sanders is gone and Wheaton will be better
37. Terrance Williams, DAL - Better than expected as a rookie and Austin likely gone
38. Marvin Jones, CIN - Just needs full-time WR2 role, talent clearly there
39. Kendall Wright, TEN - Arrived in PPR, but still not getting downfield love
Hunter has his backers and it might be a good time to deal him to the most optimistic owner in your league if you are not sold on him. Wheaton and Williams are very similarly situationed, but they have only top 20-25 upside, unlike Hunter. Jones and Wright are tough to read because of offenses in flux, but like Wheaton and Williams, they don't have the stuff to approach WR1 production. Wright is a riddle. He lit up PPR leagues, but was a non-factor in the red zone, and he might be giving up more targets to Hunter eventually. I'm by far the lowest on him of any FBG staffer with rankings up right now.
hoping for the best
40. Hakeem Nicks, NYG - Might have lost edge for good, but just turned 26
41. Steve Johnson, BUF - Strong WR3/Flex credentials, but injuries/QB situation an obstacle
42. Wes Welker, DEN - Major concussion risk and less impressive 2013 than numbers suggest
43. Riley Cooper, FA - Could end up back in Philadelphia, but Maclin could too. Better than reputation
44. Robert Woods, BUF - Flashed at moment in rookie year, but QB situation/offense may hold back #s
45. Greg Jennings, MIN - Norv might make him very viable, but QB questions/Patterson are scary
46. Mike Williams, TB - Value is plummeting on news of off field issues
47. Rueben Randle, NYG - Ideally set up to replace Nicks, but Jernigan was better late in 2013
48. Denarius Moore, OAK - At one time a coveted prospect, but falling out of favor in Oakland
49. Marques Colston, NO - Cliff is coming up, but there could 1-2 more viable years in New Orleans
50. Reggie Wayne, IND - Could still give you 2-3 more WR2/WR3 seasons, could give nothing good
Volatility is the name of the game with this group. Situations, uncertainty, and trends coming out of 2013 are not really great for most of this list. Randle, Nicks, and Welker all have enough backers to deal them for a solid price right now if you are ready to move on. Cooper might be undervalued by an owner looking to cash in on a player they see as a one-year wonder. If he leaves Philadelphia, he could be a real bargain basement guy later this offseason. He can play. Colston and Wayne are the "win now" targets, especially if they are on rebuilding teams.
other notable commodities
Kenny Britt, FA - Has flashed elite ability, albeit for just a very brief, pre-injury stretch. You never know
Danny Amendola, NE - There's an argument that injuries hid his true upside, but I think Edelman passed him
Stedman Bailey, STL - Came on at end of season, productive future ahead, but may require patience
Kenny Stills, NO - Someone has to grow into the targets that Marques Colston and Lance Moore will soon abandon
Marquise Goodwin, BUF - Game-breaking speed a given, just needs to round out game
You can find my complete top 90 dynasty wide receivers here