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With the Super Bowl wrapped up, it’s time to look back at 2013, take stock of where we are, and look forward to the future. I’ll be updating my dynasty rankings position by position, and writing a companion piece for each position to explain my thinking. First up, quarterbacks. Note: You can find all of Footballguys Dynasty Rankings here.
Before we jump into quarterback rankings, it is important to note a big change at the position in 2013 compared to previous years. The ever-expanding depth in drafts, and then in weekly rankings during the season. Peyton Manning brought home fantasy titles, but so did Nick Foles. The reality is that quarterback is one of the least essential positions in fantasy football now, ranking only above kicker and defense - unless your league has a quarterback flex or two quarterback lineup. I expect leagues to trend that way as the positional value fades, and that will also be reflected in my overall dynasty rankings, which will come out at the end of the positional series.
The top ten is packed tightly enough that your roster composition and league settings may greatly change the ranking of quarterbacks who get more production from their legs, or quarterbacks at the tail end of their career. This is not a one-size-fits-all list as much as it is a conversation starter.
Without knowing anything else about your dynasty team and league settings, I would say your goal this offseason should be to “unspool” the quarterback value on your team by trading for lesser quality quarterbacks (or different positions altogether). Until leagues adopt a lineup that includes the possibility of more than one quarterback, it is better to bet on your ability to rub two sticks together and find value at the position than it is to keep value amassed at the position at the expense of improving elsewhere.
1. Aaron Rodgers - Square in his prime and always good for a few hundred yards and handful of scores as a runner, Rodgers is still the most desirable dynasty quarterback, but he has lost a ton of value in dynasty leagues in the last two years, as the pack at QB has gotten larger and deeper. Eddie Lacy’s emergence doesn’t help, as the Packers seem content to be balanced on offense despite having an elite quarterback.
2. Andrew Luck - The best is yet to come for Luck, and he is also a dual fantasy threat. The unfortunate twist here is that Luck is not a consistent player from week-to-week, and his team is reluctant to run everything through him. We saw a glimpse of what can happen when they do in the playoffs, but it is likely that the 2014 regular season game plan will be painfully balanced, just as it was in 2013. Once that changes and Luck is the centerpiece of the offense on a weekly basis, he’ll be #1 on this list.
3. Drew Brees - The Saints will run everything through Drew Brees until he retires. Brees might be on the downslope of his career at age 35, but the elite passers don’t decline sharply at 35, as Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have shown us recently.
4. Cam Newton - Newton’s year-end numbers hide a very bumpy ride from week-to-week. His game is improving, but the quality of his weapons continues to tread water, if not decline. Until they are upgraded and Newton improves the troughs in his weekly curve, he’ll be on the outside of the top three. With a dominant defense on the other side of the ball, that might not be in the cards for 2014.
5. Robert Griffin III III - Griffin could easily be #1 on this list after next season, but he could also be outside of the top 10. He has the deep ball/long speed skillset to be the #1 fantasy quarterback, but 2013 was far from encouraging. I think we’ll look back at it as his “lost year”. I am also a sucker for ceiling at quarterback, because the cost of replacement-level baseline production during the season at the position is dirt cheap.
6. Matthew Stafford - Like Griffin, Stafford’s arrow was decidedly pointing down heading out of 2013, but also like Griffin, the team appears to be accommodating him with their head coach hire instead of taking him out of his comfort zone. He’s still on the upslope of his career, and there’s also that Calvin Johnson guy. Stafford was actually super consistent for fantasy until his late-season collapse. I wouldn’t argue against putting him as high as #3 in 6 point per pass touchdown formats.
7. Matt Ryan - Ryan’s 2013 was a disappointment, but the fault was with his offensive line and an injury to Julio Jones more than any flaw in his play. He doesn’t have the upside to be the #1 fantasy quarterback, but he is also unlikely to fall out of the QB1 ranks any time soon. He might be higher on your list if you value consistency over upside, or if you get six points for pass touchdowns and a bonus for long ones.
8. Russell Wilson - Wilson has the goods to be top 3-5 on this list, but he is the “ young Ben Roethlisberger” zone, where his team is not designed to give him a long enough leash to put up elite fantasy numbers as a regular occurrence. That could, should, and will gradually change over time, but the Seahawks aren’t going to turn into a pass-happy team - that’s not their philosophy, nor is it how they have invested their resources long term. I would feel great about my long-term prospects with Wilson as my QB1, but short-term, he is still just a boom/bust weekly option - with the tough lineup of defenses in the NFC West as a limiting factor.
9. Colin Kaepernick - Kaepernick is similarly situated to Wilson, although he is more capable of the big play as a runner, and less capable of the big play as a passer. Kaepernick’s lack of ability to hang in the pocket to go deep into progressions is actually a plus for fantasy because it brings his legs into play more often. Like Wilson, he has to deal with a very tough set of six games every year within his division, which also caps his upside.
10. Peyton Manning - Where Manning appears on this list is a fluid matter. He is almost surely going to be back next season, and even if free agent Eric Decker leaves, Manning should be far and away the #1 fantasy quarterback again. Beyond 2014 is an unknown, but again, the cheap cost of replacement-level baseline production at quarterback makes trading a quarterback that is higher on this list for him not a crazy proposition if you are stacked elsewhere. He could be undervalued by his owner because of his age, or he could be overvalued because he was the key to a 2013 fantasy championship. I would definitely be asking about his trade availability this offseason, especially if his owner has another QB1.
11. Nick Foles - Perhaps Foles should be higher. My main sources of pause at putting this elite option for the second half of 2013 higher are that Chip Kelly could still look for a more mobile option to eventually supplant Foles, and the possibility that Foles’ relatively average skillset could be exposed in the second year in the Kelly system if defenses are able to adjust. I do have faith in Kelly to adjust to the adjustments, so I wholeheartedly endorse trading for Foles if you can do it for less than premium pieces/draft picks.
12. Jay Cutler - Cutler has been extended, and he’ll likely be in the QB1 mix for a long time while he pilots the Bears’ high-flying pass offense. He’s a less consistent version of Matt Ryan - unlikely to ever be a top three fantasy quarterback, but unlikely to fall out of the QB1 ranks.
13. Ben Roethlisberger - Roethlisberger ended 2013 one of the best stretches of passing performances in his career. He was an elite fantasy quarterback for most of the second half of the year, and the team finally seems willing to make him the focal point of the offense and give him maximum freedom. He’ll be a solid low-end QB1 for the next few years.
14. Tony Romo - Romo is a tough nut to crack from a fantasy perspective. He is getting into the autumn of his career, and he was a massive disappointment for fantasy owners in 2013. Who knows what kind of blueprint the Cowboys will roll out on offense this year. I wouldn’t feel that secure if Romo was my QB1, but he could easily come roaring back to the strong QB1 ranks this year.
15. Tom Brady - Brady had flashes of his reputation as a top-end producer in 2013, but he also showed his flaws in the playoffs. He could be a serviceable QB1 this season. This could also be the season that he clearly falls out of the QB1 level of production. Brady was great last year when he had to come back from big deficits. That’s not exactly a foundation for a QB1, especially on a team that seems like they want to run more than pass if they can.
16. Philip Rivers - This shows you just how deep quarterback is. Rivers career arc might have more legs left than Brady or Romo, but his team was skewing towards balanced and a game-shortening script in the second-half of the season, short-circuiting Rivers’ weekly value. He is clearly capable of strong QB1 production, but who knows whether the gameplan in 2014 will ask him to do that?
**At this point we are out of the range of QB1 options and into more speculative dynasty commodities. I would probably slot Teddy Bridgewater and Johnny Manziel at about this point, pending their destinations. If you like Derek Carr or Blake Bortles, they belong maybe a slot or two below this big tier break.**
17. Ryan Tannehill - On one hand, Tannehill has the dual threat profile, and he should have had a lot more long passing plays to Mike Wallace last year. On the other hand, his deep accuracy limited his upside and and failed to get out of a mediocre production holding pattern for most of the season. It won’t surprise me one bit if he levels off as a fantasy QB1, but he’s also in a seemingly toxic organization.
18. Alex Smith - Smith played much better than his stats indicated. His receivers let him down when the offense opened up in the second half of the season. He is still in his prime, and if his fantasy owners are lucky, he’ll be signed long-term in Kansas City with an improved set of weapons soon.
19. Andy Dalton - This might seem nuts for a quarterback who was ranked in the top five at the end of the season, but Hue Jackson will install a heavy dose of power running, and Dalton was still an untrustworthy fantasy quarterback week-to-week during his best season. Let’s face it, Dalton’s fantasy value could match the mediocre talent he is at the position at any moment. Trade him this offseason if you can.
20. Joe Flacco - Flacco was all over the map in 2013, but Gary Kubiak could get him closer to the fantasy QB1 he was in the late stretches and postseason of 2012. He’s an afterthought right now, but he could creep back up the ranks this year.
21. Eli Manning - The inconsistency finally came home to roost, as Manning was one of the worst fantasy quarterbacks in the entire NFL in 2013. He might regain some quality and trust, but most will have sworn him off for good.
22. Jake Locker - Locker has the dual threat profile, but between injuries and only a short burst of true growth as a passer, it is beginning to look like we may never see his true ceiling. A big leap is possible under new head coach Ken Whisenhunt, but so is the beginning of the end of his tenure as a starter in Tennessee.
23. Sam Bradford - 2010 seems pretty small in the rearview now, as Bradford has no more room for error. His team isn’t going to ask him to be a prolific passer, although a mid-career renaissance is always possible if Bradford can regain confidence. It’s more likely that we’ll see him as another victim of David Carr syndrome.
24. Geno Smith - Smith was actually very productive as a runner, and he had arguably the worst set of skill players around him in the league. The possibility of the Jets going with a Plan B at quarterback or Smith getting yanked for good at some point in 2014 looms, but as a speculative hold in dynasty leagues, Smith is underrated.
25. EJ Manuel - Manuel started off on a promising note as a passer, but he was uncomfortable and unnatural as a runner, resulting in multiple injuries. He could still be a good NFL quarterback, but his rookie season diminished his long-term fantasy upside.
Worth a Roster Spot
Terrelle Pryor - Lethal running ability, still young, but needs to move to an organization that is willing to let him learn on the job.
Ryan Mallett - Has been in the incubator for three years, could get dealt to a starting spot this offseason.
Brian Hoyer - Under contract and was on the track to be a surprise top 15 fantasy quarterback before tearing his ACL.
Brock Osweiler - Denver’s likely next starting quarterback, but who knows when that job will open?
Mike Glennon - Appears to be an average talent at best, but might be an entrenched starter with a good second season.
Carson Palmer - Had his moments in 2013, and might squeeze out one last near-QB1 season with offensive line improvements in 2014.
Michael Vick - As a bridge to a young quarterback, could easily put together a string of QB1 weeks in 2014… until he gets hurt.