I was very pleased and honored to be invited to participate in the Rotoworld, which included luminaries like Patrick Daugherty, Evan Silva, Mike Clay (Rotoworld), and Brandon Funston (Yahoo!). It’s always enlightening to crack open the first mock draft of like-minded fantasy over-obsessors and see where the largest gaps exist between the 2014 NFL takes of you and your peers. I don't want to spoil the whole mock, so I'll share only my picks.
PARAMETERS
- 12 team/16 rounds
- .5 PPR
- 1 QB
- 2 RB
- 3 WR
- 1 TE
- 1 RB/WR/TE Flex
- 1 K
- 1 D
Draft Slot: 8
STRATEGY
Having 0.5 PPR immediately stands out as the key setting in this league. Running backs become more attractive flex prospects and the top wide receivers have a smaller gap between them and the second/third tier choices at the position. The eight hole would provide the temptation to go Calvin Johnson because there was a good possibility that none of my top five receivers would fall to #17. Jimmy Graham would be a consideration too, but I am liking the possibility of Rob Gronkowski or Jordan Cameron in the 4th/5th. I would likely be going with a running back here, and I have been zeroing in on Demarco Murray in this scenario. He will be a true workhorse in an offense that will likely be in shootouts. He can be ultraproductive as a receiver and will present near elite production when he is healthy. Injury risk is a little rough for a first rounder, but he was a beast in the fantasy playoffs last year, and that’s good enough for me when investing my late first in a running back.
Second round would hope for a top five wide receiver, but likely go BPA, and my third is reserved for C.J. Spiller until he’s not available there anymore. I would pound away at wide receiver from the 4th-8th with a likely tight end pick in the 4th/5th. If I missed on Cameron/Gronk, I would look to double up on tight end with an upside/floor combo like Ertz/Clay in the late rounds. Quarterback as always would be a late value pick that my leaguemates would dictate, pretty much a default strategy in 12-team or smaller leagues this year unless it’s quarterback-friendly scoring.
MY PICKS
1.8 Demarco Murray, RB, DAL - As expected, Murray was my pick here. Megatron went at 1.7, or else this would have been a harder decision. I expect Murray to be there for you in the late first in most every draft. The 0.5 PPR takes a little edge off of his upside since he is a prolific pass catcher.
2.5 Le’Veon Bell, RB, PIT - None of my top five wide receivers were there, but I might have still taken Bell over them. I have him rated just below Murray as a late first value, so this was a pleasant surprise. I wouldn’t sweat Bell’s YPC, few backs could have done better behind that offensive line.
3.8 C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF - Rinse, repeat. Elite talent in his prime in offense that will have a huge volume in the running game. Yes, sir, may I have another?
4.5 Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE - This is a pick I will make in every draft I can since I was happily taking him in the third with more uncertainty and a much greater chance at a late start last year. The early reports on Gronk are all positive, and let’s not forget that he did indeed resume Gronkness before going down. The hit that put him out would have put any player in the league out. He played in the first 42 regular season games of his career. Gronkowski’s injury proneness has been overblown.
5.8 Desean Jackson, WR, WAS - I can tolerate the boom/bust nature of Jackson’s week-to-week profile more in a 0.5 PPR because the gap between his 2-38 weeks and the pack will get smaller. He can definitely reproduce his 2013 with Robert Griffin III and Jay Gruden playing key roles in his environment.
6.5 Michael Crabtree, WR, SF - It was clear that I was going best wide receiver available on at least 2-3 of my next four picks. Crabtree just ended up being a value pick more than a target. I don’t like him appreciably more than the next two wide receivers I selected, although I doubt that he’ll be there in the sixth in most drafts. Trent Richardson was still on the board here, but with three wide receivers starting and three backs already in tow, I couldn’t go with him. It was still difficult to pass on him in the sixth merely on risk/reward.
7.8 Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC - Bowe is going to be a pet pick of mine as long as he is available in the 7th or later. In the second half of 2013, he was much more like his old self, and Alex Smith played some of the best football of his career. Only five quarterbacks had gone off of the board at this point, so it seemed way too early to go quarterback.
8.5 Anquan Boldin, WR, SF - I never intended to double up on 49ers wide receivers, but Boldin was the most reliable, proven wide receiver left on the board. I needed a bye/injury/flex option and wanted floor over ceiling here. Eric Decker was another consideration here and he went two picks later.
9.8 Kelvin Benjamin, WR, CAR - The upside pick to accompany the safe pick of Boldin to fill out my wide receiver depth. Benjamin could be a spectacular bust, but he will have every opportunity to be Cam Newton’s #1 receiver from day one, especially in the red zone. I’m happy with the risk/reward package he represents in the 9th round. Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans were taken just before my pick, which was my cue to move on Benjamin, who I believe has the highest ceiling of any rookie wideout in redraft leagues. The 0.5 PPR format only accentuates that.
10.5 Nick Foles, QB, PHI - With only seven quarterbacks off of the board, I said uncle anyway and took Foles, who has the best chance of crashing the party of the top three quarterbacks (as he did last year). This is an “expert draft” outcome, as we tend to try to one-up each other when it comes to waiting at quarterback. I don’t think this will happen in most drafts.
11.8 Matt Ryan, QB, ATL - Only two more quarterbacks went off of the board before my next pick, so I decided to forgo more RB/WR depth to take Ryan, who I have as just about a lock to be a mid-QB1 to hedge Foles falling off, and also construct a pretty sick QBBC to play matchups against. It is possible that early in the season I could drop a quarterback to take advantage of the fat waiver wire at RB/WR in a 16 roster spot league, but for now, I didn’t see a RB/WR with compelling enough value pass on Ryan, even though I already had a quarterback in tow.
12.5 Tre Mason, RB, STL - As I mentioned, the waiver wire will be red hot in a 12-team/16-roster spot league, so I am looking for late picks who will reveal their value early in the season. If Mason can’t make headway in camp and the preseason to carve out a decent-sized role in the Rams running game, I’ll move on without remorse.
13.8 Dwayne Allen, TE, IND - Everyone knows I love Allen, and I think he could pay off in a middle-class Julius Thomas way this year, but this pick is also about facing reality and knowing that I need another tight end to potentially cover Gronk in early weeks.
14.5 Bryce Brown, RB, BUF - This was a bit of an early-season Spiller injury hedge, and also a pick to anticipate some summer hype about Brown in the Bills offense. He was easily my highest-ranked running back left on the board to boot.
15.8 NYJ D/ST - In a 12-team/16-roster spot league, few will be foolish enough to carry more than one defense for more than a week. Streaming is going to work well in this setup, so I am starting with the Jets, who get the Raiders traveling east to open the season.
16.5 Phil Dawson, K, SF - Did you know Dawson had at least six points in every game from Week 4 on last year, and only fell below nine points in three of those 12 games?