Trying to look at everything at once can make fantasy football overwhelming. There are metrics and strategies that can pull on player values and in-draft decisions in many different ways. You can find something to back up just about any selection. Sometimes simplicity is better. Sometimes we can look at two or more players at the same position on the same team and immediately see that the fantasy community has either introduced a huge value gap where it is not warranted or failed to put one in place where there is clear separation. If we can identify these layup draft decisions, it can make the exercise simpler, which makes our brains calmer, which leads to better drafting.
Instead of Rob Gronkowski in the first, take Martellus Bennett in the 11th or later
Why: Gronkowski is still the TE1 as far as any impartial observer is concerned, but the gap between him and the pack narrowed in 2015. Jordan Reed was basically the same player on a points per game basis, and he is available two rounds later at an injury history discount Gronkowski used to have. Bennett gives the Patriots a formidable #2 tight end who can siphon away red zone targets, and allow Tom Brady to punish teams that try to take Gronk away by creating a mismatch against the linebacker/defensive back in the opposing defense who is not the tight end stopper in the passing game. Bennett won’t put up Gronk’s numbers, but he’ll be closer than most people expect, and if Gronk goes down, jackpot! Even if you miss on Bennett (you won’t), players like Julius Thomas and Antonio Gates offer high ceiling/high floor options well into the mid-rounds. You won’t regret passing on Gronkowski.