No position presents as wide a range of strategies as tight end. Being the first one to take a tight end might be as profitable as being the last one to take. In some ways, deciding when you’re likely to take your tight end is the key decision of your draft this year. Your RB/WR plan is going to hinge on what round pick you use to get your tight end. So, which lane is the best to pick on the championship express?
Plan A - Graham in the first/second or Gronk in the third/fourth
I aim to build an unbeatable juggernaut when I draft a fantasy team. I just don’t see how you can do that without Graham or Gronkowski. Sure, you forgo a RB/WR in their place, but there are many more avenues to approach that kind of production at RB/WR than there are at tight end this year.
Graham is slipping to the mid-second in many drafts, although I would consider him in the late first because the tier of running backs you’re picking from there is pretty level. Why risk losing him to the team picking at the turn?
If you miss on Graham, or you feel reasonably confident that Gronkowski will fall to the third round, you can still exercise your top two picks on RB/WR and get a likely uberstud tight end. Gronkowski has been looking like a player who is starting to get into later stages of rehab, and longtime Pats beat writer Mike Reiss predicted he would not land on the PUP list to open the season. As far as early missed weeks go, just take Zach Sudfeld around the 10th/11th. If counting on an undrafted free agent in week 1 makes you uneasy, any of my high floor TEBC list below should do.
What if you take Graham in the second and Gronkowski is staring at you in the fourth or fifth round? As long as there is a flex position, I would consider it. You take the only true Graham stopper out of play and get top five wide receiver production at your flex in the process.
Plan B - 11th round or later TEBC
If you don’t take a stud early, you can take advantage of the fact that there are some solid high-ceiling and high-floor tight ends available in the TE2 tier this year. As long as you have 20 or more roster spots, you can fire two or three bullets at tight end and see what happens.
High Ceiling
- Dwayne Allen, IND
- Jordan Cameron, CLE
- Zach Sudfeld, NE
- Julius Thomas, DEN
- Tyler Eifert, CIN
- Coby Fleener, IND
High Floor
- Martellus Bennett, CHI
- Fred Davis, WAS
- Owen Daniels, HOU
- Brandon Pettigrew, CIN
- Antonio Gates, SD
- Jermaine Gresham, CIN
- Brent Celek, PHI
Take one or two from the high ceiling group and one from the high floor group, be vigilant about early waiver wire wonders, and it’s likely that you won’t be worse off than about half of your opponents at tight end, but better off at RB/WR because you got an extra dart in the first 10 rounds.
Plan C - High Ceiling Second-Tier TE1 in 7th-9th
There are a few tight ends that you can get behind as able to at least jump a tier into the Jason Witten range this year. They are usually available in the seventh to ninth round, although this is also prime quarterback and upside wide receiver territory.
Jared Cook is on a team that wants to use his rare physical ability as a receiver to its fullest. Jermichael Finley seems to be as close to his early-career form as he has been in the last three years. Kyle Rudolph had a monstrous Pro Bowl and could be taking his game to a new level. Greg Olsen is clearly one of the top two targets on the Panthers roster and his numbers could start to reflect that. I’ve listed them in the order that I like them.
Plan D - Off-Brand Stud in the Fifth/Sixth
This is my least preferred strategy, but you can get a very solid TE1 in the fifth or sixth round in some drafts. Jason Witten has a very high PPR floor, Vernon Davis has a very high ceiling, and Tony Gonzalez has a high, but slipping floor. My problem with this angle is that you give up a strong wide receiver pick and you are still looking up at the Graham/Gronk teams, so you lose a chance to get a bigger advantage on them elsewhere. Witten and Gonzalez will hold the line, but they have limited upside. Davis gives you top three upside, but he also has risk of underuse.
All Plans - Bench TE
If you don’t go with TEBC, consider any of the high ceiling TEBC candidates as potential trade bait for your bench in the 12th round or later.
