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When we look back at 2012 fantasy drafts, the quality and depth of running back was bad enough to force some of us to take Darren McFadden in the first round, and an injured Ryan Mathews in the third round. This year, there’s a glut of RB1’s in PPR leagues, and even with a few of the rookies fizzling in the preseason, a strong group of RB2 candidates. What’s the best way approach the position in your drafts?
Plan A - RB1: First-round pick
You can take Adrian Peterson #1. You can take one of Doug Martin, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, CJ Spiller, or Trent Richardson in the top six. You can get Ray Rice, Marshawn Lynch, Arian Foster, or Matt Forte in the back half of the first round. We might quibble about the order of these names, but taking one in the first round is about as straight-forward as RB strategy gets in fantasy drafts.
Plan B - RB1: Second-round pick
In PPR leagues, you might feel inclined to take Jimmy Graham or Calvin Johnson in the first round, and I’m not going to talk you out of it. Matt Forte, Steven Jackson, Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles, Alfred Morris, and even Maurice Jones-Drew can be a solid RB1 despite second-round availability. Heck, we’ll likely project Forte, Bush and Sproles as RB1 level plays every week in PPR leagues, and Jackson will join them if the goal-line opportunities come the way they did for Michael Turner.
Plan C - RB1: Third-round pick
I just can’t endorse going all the way with upside-down drafting this year. Upside backs like Eddie Lacy and Demarco Murray or high floor backs better-suited to be RB2’s like Frank Gore and Stevan Ridley should be there for you in the third. I’m okay with the RB2BC approach that will likely follow, but I am not a fan of RB1BC, even if it means you get to start with Jimmy Graham, Dez Bryant, and Drew Brees.
Plan A - RB2: Second-round pick
Refer to Plan B -. You can basically have two RB1s this year if you start RB-RB. It’s going to be many owners’ default plan, and it’s a good one.
Plan B- RB2: Third-round pick
Whether you go high upside (Lacy/Murray) or high floor (Gore/Ridley) is a matter of taste, but I would probably want to go high floor to make up for the extra risk of having a second-round RB1 instead of first-round RB1. Either way, there’s no shame in the game of taking a non-RB in the first two rounds this year.
Plan C - RB2: Fourth/Fifth-round pick
Now that you’ve relegated yourself to going running back later, you are hoping for a David Wilson, Lamar Miller, or even Darren McFadden to fall to you in the fourth-round. If you’re really lucky, Gore or Lacy will be there. If your league is going wide receiver heavy in the second and third rounds, there’s actually good chance of solid RB value in the fourth round. Of course, this is a somewhat risky group, so that makes Gore/Ridley more attractive choices in the third so you can reduce overall volatility in your RB corps. If those backs are all gone by your fourth-round pick, don’t fret. Shane Vereen, Giovani Bernard, and Daryl Richardson all have strong RB2 upside, and they should be there in the fifth round. If you are in a terribly crazy running back league, you might need to reach for one in the fourth, but that probably also means the advantage you pocketed at QB/WR/TE is even greater than you originally planned on since everyone concentrated on RB early.
Plan A - RB3/Flex : Look for sliding value
Since you have studs at RB1/RB2, you shouldn’t really feel a need to take an RB3 until value is screaming at you. Like Frank Gore in the fifth, or Daryl Richardson in the seventh. If you only cobble together a bench of injury upside and part-time players that’s fine. In a PPR league, you’ll likely want to flex a wide receiver anyway.
Plan B - RB3/Flex: Be open to a pick in the 6th/7th
Specifically, Vereen/Bernard/Richardson in the sixth or DeAngelo Williams/Chris Ivory in the seventh. I think you can get away going into the season with a bench of injury upside and part-time players, but I might sacrifice a bit of strength at wide receiver or a round on my quarterback pick to get a stronger RB3. Whether you went high upside or high floor at RB2 in the third, you’ll want a little more upside and depth at the position.
Plan C - RB3/Flex: Fifth/Sixth-round pick
Once you’re on this track, you are committing to devoting a third mid-round pick to a running back. Vereen/Bernard/Richardson are your top targets here.
All Plans - Bench Running Backs
My opinion of the running backs available in the eighth round or later is not very high. I believe that starter injury will be the main factor that determines which picks hit, and that is somewhat random. Because of that I have four factors I am looking for some combination of in my bench running backs:
- Cheap (12th round or later)
- Clear Everydown Backup
- Good Running Game and/or offense
- Quality Talent
Here’s your shopping list:
- Joique Bell, DET
- Jacquizz Rodgers, ATL
- Roy Helu, WAS
- Knowshon Moreno, DEN
- Michael Bush, CHI
- Christine Michael/Robert Turbin, SEA
- DuJuan Harris, GB
- LeGarrette Blount, NE
- Kendall Hunter, SF
