It’s a brave new world at quarterback in fantasy leagues. We have 13 bonafide QB1’s and a slew of QB2’s who should produce numbers that would have been low QB1 level in previous years. The upshot of this is that you can mix and match a quarterback drafting philosophy with the flow of your draft. There is no “right” time to take a quarterback. Watch your draft unfold and implement one of these strategies on the fly:
Plan A: Take QB12
Let your leaguemates decide who your quarterback will be. Usually it will be one of Tony Romo, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, or Matthew Stafford. Maybe even Robert Griffin III III or Andrew Luck. The spread between the expected value of this group is small enough that you don’t need to fret over which one you get. Usually, you can get one in the eighth round, assuming the seal on quarterback is broken in the late second or third round. The difference in value between the top quarterbacks and QB12 is much, much smaller than the differencein value between third round RB/WR/TE and their eighth round counterparts. Simple enough, but as Chase Stuart strong advocated on The Audible, you can also let QB12 slide a round or two after the eighth to challenge your leaguemates to shoot themselves in the foot in an attempt to hurt you by taking their likely useless top backup quarterback (because they already drafted a QB1). The reason that can work for you is the existence of a 13th QB1, which leads to the next strategy…
Plan B: Slough QB with a Vick-led QBBC instead
I wrote about this plan http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=bloomQBslough earlier this month, and it is only getting more attractive with Michael Vick seizing the Eagles starting quarterback job. More designed runs, more plays in an uptempo offense, and Vick being asked to pilot a “college” offense equals big fantasy numbers. Vick was a low QB1 last year while he was struggling, and despite his injury-prone history, he lasted nine games into the season before getting hurt. That’s plenty of time to upgrade your QB2 in preparation for the inevitable Vick visit with the trainers. There’s also the fact that quarterback is by far the easiest position to upgrade in a trade. Plan on taking Vick in the 10th round, and reserve a pick in the next 2-3 rounds for a high floor QB2 like Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Andy Dalton, or Matt Schaub. If Vick goes in the top 12 quarterbacks, that’s great news! Switch back to Plan A, with an added discount, this time waiting for QB13.
Plan C: Let the Suckers give you an elite QB at a discount
Scoring system may dictate that an early quarterback choice is the smart move this year, assuming the third-eighth round range of QB1 draft slots still applies. If you have 6 points per pass touchdown, bonuses for 300-yard games and long touchdown passes, or 14+ teams, taking a Brees/Rodgers/Peyton/Newton/Brady in the third-to-fifth round range might be the ticket. Let us remember that Brees and Rodgers delivered championships for their owners with huge performances in weeks 15 and 16 last year (Romo, Ryan, and Wilson did too, to be fair). Matt Ryan in the sixth may also be the shark move in a league that weighs elite passers heavier. Don’t think that taking one of the top six quarterbacks off of the board is automatically a bad strategy this year.
Plan D: Sacrifice a round to get the second tier QB1 that you want.
Whether it’s Matt Ryan ironing out his duds from last year, Andrew Luck making the next step with a better offensive line, Russell Wilson sustaining his top 3 production from the second half of 2012, or Robert Griffin III III just being himself sooner than folks expect coming back from ACL surgery, there’s nothing wrong with spending a quarterback pick on QB6-8 to make sure you get “your guy”. Only a few weeks into the season, this somewhat focused quarterback picture will be a bit scrambled. Reaches will look like values, and vice versa. More important than picking the right point in your draft to go quarterback is the need to pick the right player. Trust your gut.
Backup QB: Don’t worry, be happy
There are certainly a lot of QB2’s with QB1 upside this year, and it might be tempting to take your backup quarterback in the 11th or 12th round to get one. The problem is, unless you have Michael Vick, you are likely to only need your backup for one week this season. Even if you are the last one to take your backup, you’ll a more than adequate option like Alex Smith, Matt Schaub, or Philip Rivers. I can even see going without a backup to start the season because owners will start cutting their backups for early waiver wire wonders when they see that they are one of the most expendable players on their team. If you are going to spend a very late pick on a quarterback to stash and see what happens, make it EJ Manuel. He’ll still start as soon as he is healthy, and his running ability plus an uptempo offense could mean very, very good things. Terrelle Pryor might even be worth stashing away in deep leagues as another quarterback who will rely on his legs as much as his arm.
