Sometimes it's difficult to organize all of the emotion and information we have swirling in our heads leading up to fantasy drafts. One way I have come to understand how to make my fantasy football research and intuition actionable is simply by level of commitment. There are players I'm willing to select in most cases at or around their ADP. Some players I am considering when I am on the clock, but often passing on at the moment of truth, and of course others that I'm not even willing to consider. There are players that I know could potentially draw my interest at a future date, but aren't going to spend any resources on right now. In other words, there are players I am marrying, flirting with, and dumping in my draft strategy, and a few names I am keeping in my phone for a possible future engagement.
There’s the Brock Osweiler dead cat bounce, but ADP of the pieces of the this offense still anticipates a sizable rebound from last year that is not a given.
Flirt: DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins could come back to life with Savage or Watson, but this offense isn’t getting back to Brian Hoyer volume levels. The good thing is that at a third-round ADP, it doesn’t have to for Hopkins to provide profit on a pick at market value.
Dump: Lamar Miller, CJ Fiedorowicz
Miller was a massive disappointment last year and he is only going about one round later than he did in 2016, when solid RB1 numbers were within his range of possibilities. Adding weight robbed him of the dynamism that made him so exciting in Miami. The Texans should have let him remain the middle class Jamaal Charles he was at a lighter weight, but they wanted a workhorse. An underwhelming workhorse who could add a few scores with better quarterback play, but will likely top out as a mid-RB2. Fiedorowicz is splitting the tight end role with Ryan Griffin, and Stephen Anderson could do more in his second year. There are better tight ends ot target later in drafts. There's no reason to draft Fuller while he's recovering from a broken collarbone.
Watson has the running ability to be fantasy relevant in this offense, but he will have to either decisively overtake Tom Savage in camp, or Savage will have to nosedive in season. Be patient. Ervin was drafted as a “weapon” and in year two there are signs that he is ready to be unleashed. He might be the primary receiving back and a surprise value in PPR leagues.