The end of draft season means the beginning of fantasy football draft season. I was very pleased and honored to be invited to participate in the Lindy’s Magazine Mock, which included luminaries like John Hansen (Fantasy Guru) and Scott Pianowski (Yahoo!). It’s always enlightening to crack open the first mock draft of like-minded fantasy over-obsessors and see where the largest gaps exist between the 2014 NFL takes of you and your peers. I don't want to spoil the whole mock, so I'll share only my picks.
Parameters
- 14 team/14 rounds
- Non-PPR
- 1 QB
- 2 RB
- 3 WR
- 1 TE
- 1 RB/WR/TE Flex
- 1 K
- 1 D
Draft Slot: 4
Strategy
NonPPR creates a massive distortion in strategy and the stacking of your board for a draft. The “stud RB” theory of drafting was predominant in part because of the prevalence of NonPPR scoring (which is still known as “standard” today). Running back is king in NonPPR and your strategy better reflect that.
Why is running back king in nonPPR?
- Smaller pool of reliable weekly options
- Spread between top WR/top TE gets smaller
- Scarcity/emphasis encourages RB hoarding, limits waiver wire options
- Easier to find replacement level WR/TE scoring
Add in an extra two teams in a 14-team draft and the priority on stocking up early at running back glowed even brighter.
The four hole is an easy spot to choose from in the first round in nonPPR leagues. The last remaining of the easy top four of McCoy/Charles/Peterson/Forte is your choice.
Running back is deep enough to feel like I would like an option on the board in the 2nd or 3rd and 4th or 5th, with my tight end likely coming with one of the other two remaining picks, and the fourth being a wide receiver.
The depth at wide receiver is attractive enough to like hammering away at the position in the mid-rounds, whether the format is PPR or nonPPR. The late rounds would have to be players that would give me an early cue of their worth because this league would have a fat waiver wire with only 14 roster spots. As always, kicker and defense go last, with defense being an option based on their Week 1 matchup.
My Picks
1.4 Jamaal Charles, RB, KC - How pleased was I to get my #1 running back at the fourth pick? Peyton Manning went third to help Charles slip. He gets a ton of value from catch volume in PPR, but his touchdowns give him elite status in NonPPR leagues too.
2.11 CJ Spiller, RB, BUF - You’re going to get sick of hearing me stump for Spiller this summer. As long as he keeps falling into the 20s, keep taking him.
3.4 Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE - Hansen took Julius Thomas at 2.13, so I decided to make my move for top tight end here. The gap between the top guys and the pack is smaller in nonPPR, but 14 rounds meant carrying the ceiling/floor late combo strategy that Jason Wood and I discussed on the couch this week would cost a very valuable roster spot. I wanted to get one of my top five TEs. Sadly, my other two top five TEs lasted until the sixth round, so this is one where I might want a do-over.
4.11 Toby Gerhart, RB, JAX - Gerhart will be on a ton of my teams this year. He has been very good any time he has gotten usage and the Jaguars have no obstacles to his being a true everydown workhorse this year. Even in a limited offense, that will amount to RB2 value. He might have fallen farther than this, but in a nonPPR, i didn’t want to take the chance. Trent Richardson is neck and neck with him in my rankings, but in the moment of truth, I didn’t have the heart to buy in to Trent after how last year went.
5.4 Percy Harvin, WR, SEA - I’m pleased as punch to have Percy as my WR1 after waiting this long. I’ll take the injury risk that goes with his higher ceiling because I feel I can have decent depth at wide receiver more easily in nonPPR
6.11 Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC - Bowe is falling as far as the 10th round, so perhaps I jumped the gun here, but I like that he should be the top red zone option for the Chiefs as he and Alex Smith developed better chemistry as the year went on.
7.4 Mike Wallace, WR, MIA - In a nonPPR, Wallace’s duds don’t sting as much. On the other hand, when he scores a long touchdown, it instantly puts him in the week’s top 10-15 wideouts. I’ll take that as my WR3 with the potential that he and Ryan Tannehill can get on the same page this year.
8.11 Anquan Boldin, WR, SF - What does this guy have to do to get respect? He was as good as ever last year and that included games with Michael Crabtree on the field. He is at least a viable WR3/Flex and a value pick this late.
9.4 Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - You hold your nose and take a back with McFadden’s record of inevitable failure because he has a shot to start and if he flames out you’ll be willing to dump him to take advantage of a strong group of waiver wire players. I would like a player like Christine Michael instead in a league with longer benches.
10.11 Kelvin Benjamin, WR, CAR - This was a no brainer in nonPPR. Benjamin doesn’t have to be refined to contribute in the red zone. That has to be one of the main reasons the Panthers took him, and we know Cam Newton can throw a fade. If he can come through in the red zone, Benjamin has a chance to be huge in NonPPR leagues, even if he struggles in other parts of his game such as drops and consistent effort and execution.
11.4 Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT - I was fine with waiting this long for my quarterback because I like the position 15 deep this year. I believe Roethlisberger was 13th or 14th. Markus Wheaton is an upgrade on Emmanuel Sanders, and Martavis Bryant can provide red zone and big play help. Heath Miller will be back to full speed after coming back too early from an ACL tear last year. I expect Roethlisberger to carry over his QB1 numbers from the second half of 2013.
12.11 Cody Latimer, WR, DEN - If Latimer impresses in camp and the preseason and makes a push for early playing time, I’ll be happy to see what he can do for a week or two because we all know what effect Peyton Manning has on his wide receivers in fantasy leagues. If he needs more time in the oven, it will be helpful to have the spot to play with on the waiver wire. Win/Win.
13.4 NYJ D - I’ll take my defense based on Week 1 matchup and expect to cycle through the best waiver matchups each week. The Jets get the Raiders and Matt Schaub at home.
14.11 Ryan Succop, K, KC - If Charles and Bowe have bad weeks, at least I’ll get a nice week from Succop I guess?