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Strength of schedule analysis in preseason is always dangerous because many teams look a lot different than we expected by mid-season. A few teams shock us early on, but for the most part we can more reliably predict the most likely game scripts for a team’s first four matchups. This can give us insight into players that are most likely to get your fantasy teams sprinting out of the starting blocks.
Denver
Opponents
- BAL
- @NYG
- OAK
- PHI
If you want to talk yourself into taking Montee Ball, this is a good way to do it. The Ravens may come out of the blocks slow on the road, and none of the Giants, Raiders, or Eagles are scary on defense. The Broncos could easily run away from Oakland and Philadelphia in particular and give Ball a chance for a hot start.
Peyton Manning should be among the top three fantasy quarterbacks after the first four weeks. The Ravens could give him fits, but the Giants, Raiders, and Eagles will likely act as air traffic control for a launching pad pass offense. It seems to make sense that Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, and Eric Decker’s early fantasy fortunes will mirror Manning’s, and we shouldn’t forget Julius Thomas either. The cherry on top is that without Von Miller, the defense might give up enough points to force Manning to push the scoring into the 30s or even 40s.
Strategy Bottom Line: Be more willing to take Peyton Manning in the fifth round if you don’t love the RB/WR available there. Montee Ball is likely to go in the fourth or fifth round, which is still too rich for me because I don’t believe in him, but if you like him, this information should nudge you into taking him. Demaryius Thomas in the late second/early third or Decker in the sixth/seventh are looking like good plays. Julius Thomas should get increased consideration if you are planning on going TEBC approach.
Washington
Opponents
- PHI
- @GB
- DET
- @OAK
With the exception of Green Bay, the Redskins get pushover defenses to start the season, which should spell a hot start for Alfred Morris. If Mike Shanahan is inclined to go in the shallow end with Robert Griffin III III coming off of his ACL surgery, the game scripts should support conservative game-planning and lead-nursing. Griffin is so competitive that he might put up mid-low QB1 numbers anyway in the competitive parts of these games.
Philadelphia, Detroit, and Oakland all have suspect secondaries, so Pierre Garcon is a good early play, especially in leagues that give bonuses for long touchdowns. Garcon’s foot should theoretically be as healthy as it will be all season. Even Fred Davis and Roy Helu could get a little boost from this early schedule.
Strategy Bottom Line: Alfred Morris in the mid-to-late second is a nice get, especially in non-PPR leagues. Roy Helu should have been on your radar anyway, but he should get plenty of work in these matchups and solidify his speculative bench value. If you wanted to take Griffin as one of the last three or four QB1’s off of the board, the early schedule may dampen his upside, but it is much better than starting with ferocious defenses that might keep him under fire all day. Garcon has appeared to be a solid fifth-round WR2, and this should do nothing to dispel that notion.
Kansas City
Opponents
- @JAX
- DAL
- @PHI
- NYG
Andy Reid must be wondering how three of his first four games as an AFC head coach are against teams from his former home, the NFC East. Jacksonville’s defense isn’t going to overwhelm anyone, and none of the NFC East defenses are scary. On the flipside of those NFC East matchups, Dallas and New York in particular should put pressure on the Chiefs to put up points with their strong skill position players and aggressive quarterbacks.
Reid is going to try to get Alex Smith confident with quick passing against these defenses in transition, which favors Jamaal Charles, Dexter McCluster, and maybe even Donnie Avery. Dwayne Bowe doesn’t really have a formidable match among #1 corners outside of the Dallas game. In general, Charles should be showcased a la LeSean McCoy and have plenty of opportunities to put up top five running back numbers on the week.
Strategy Bottom Line: Don’t fear Jamaal Charles in the mid-first round. Bowe in the fifth is a more enticing proposition with this in mind. I’ve already been a fan of taking Dexter McCluster late, this cinches that in PPR leagues.