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You have not and will not see a mock draft from me this year. There are too many variables to adjust for to achieve even modest accuracy, and folks who cover individual teams are doing a terrific job of tracking who the most likely player/team marriages are (at least based on outward indications and what anonymous sources will share in the lying season).
Instead, I’m going to try to handicap with rough percentages the range that players will fall in to give us an idea of the landscape of the top 10, and later this week, the first round. There will always be surprises, but the overall buzz, team visits/interest, cumulative mock draft information, and amassing of evalution information gives us a good idea of what should happen Thursday night.
Locks
Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina
Khalil Mack, DE/OLB, Buffalo
Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn
Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson
Any of these four guys dropping out of the top 10 would be truly shocking. Even falling out of the top 6 or 7 is a stretch. For Clowney, falling out of the top three would be stunning. I’m not sure I buy Mack at #1, but #3 is certainly very possible, and he could be a trade up target once Clowney is gone. Robinson is a generational talent almost on a par with Clowney in raw materials to create dominance on the field. Watkins is about as safe as they come, with top-end tools to match an outstanding work ethic and desire to be great along with footwork, precision in execution, and toughness. It’s not 100% certain Watkins goes ahead of Evans, but if Evans goes before him, Watkins will go soon after. He’s an excellent player to induce a trade up if he falls into the back half of the top 10.
98%
Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M
Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M
There’s a very slim chance of these two falling outside of the top 10, and it is probably less than the chance that they sneak into the top 5. Taylor Lewan’s gaudy measureables could get him ahead of Matthews and set in motion a chain of events that causes Matthews to fall. Evans seems highly likely to go in the 7-10 range, but it is possible that all four of those teams see QB/OT/Defense picks that are more attractive. Evans is the more likely of the two to fall out.
80%
Aaron Donald, DT, PIttsburgh
Donald has been the best example of a player who rises meteorically during the post-draft process in a long time. His floor is probably 12 or 14, and a pick as high as 5 won’t be too shocking. Lack of ideal size at DT is the only thing that is keeping him outside of the 98% tier
50%
Johnny Manziel, QB Texas A&M
Blake Bortles, QB, Central Florida
Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
Bortles “fits the mold” and Manziel’s camp seems to have aced the hype generation aspect of the pre-draft process. That being said, the league is afraid of taking quarterbacks early because you are married to them and lose your job if you passed on a safer pick for a bust at quarterback (busts at other positions are ok, just don’t you dare miss on an early QB pick). Recent buzz would make him seem like a lock, but a fall out of the top 10 is in no way out of the question, especially with that positive buzz being in the interest of teams in the top 10 looking for a trade up partner.
50/50 represents a shoulder shrug here, basically saying “I can see him in the top 10, but falling out also wouldn’t surprise me” and "the NFL quarterback evaluation process and decision-making on what picks they are worth mystifies me".
Lewan’s measureables say top 10, Oakland, Buffalo and Detroit can easily find a place for him, but he has character questions (which probably eliminates Atlanta). I might be underestimating his real odds of going top 10, as I don’t really see his floor lower than top 12-15.
33.3%
Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina
Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix, Alabama
Anthony Barr, DE/OLB, UCLA
Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State
Ebron is the best tight end, and the position continues to grow in value. A pick in the top 5 or 6 is possible, as is a fall to the 15-18 range. Tony Pauline of TFYDraft raised some questions about Ebron’s personality “red flags”, so the wide range seems to be warranted.
Like tight end, safety is a coveted position, and Clinton-Dix is seen as the consensus #1 at the position. Barr was once seen in a lot of top 10s, but the buzz on him has cooled of late. Still, edge pressure plus a high ceiling creates an enticing draft prospect.
The top corner is hard to predict, but Gilbert’s tools probably make him the most likely to go first off of the board, and most likely to induce a team to spend a pick at the end of the top 10 (or trade into the top 10 to snag him).
1 in 3 might seem a little high for this group (I’m trying to make the numbers add up), but the point here is that if the quarterbacks don’t go top 10, there is a host of players that have a decent chance of sneaking in.
10%
Odell Beckham, WR, LSU
Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State
Carr’s toolset combined with an ability to interview well and potentially give a team that warm, fuzzy feeling means you can’t count him out of the top 10 mix.
Beckham is possible if Evans goes top 5 and Tampa goes to the next WR on their board, or if Detroit takes him to give Matthew Stafford an arsenal that leaves no excuses for failure on offense.
5%
Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech
Darqueze Dennard, CB Michigan State
Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State
Fuller and Dennard are not out of the question to be #1 on a team’s board at cornerback at the end of the top 10. Fuller is more versatile, and both are more aggressive and physical than Gilbert.
As much as it pains me to say it, I believe the negative buzz on Bridgewater is real, and even a team that is enamored with him will bide their time before taking him, either trading out of the top 10, or back into the first round to get him with a second pick in the round. It’s not impossible that a team is being quiet and ready to pounce on him in the top 10, but it’s unlikely.
Shazier is a late riser who is generating a lot of buzz and he fits in the three-down linebacker who can make an impact as a pass rusher and in coverage, in addition to having rare range and speed. His skillset could cause a team to take him in the 8-10 range.