You have not and will not see a mock draft from me this year. There are too many variables to adjust for to achieve even modest accuracy, and folks who cover individual teams are doing a terrific job of tracking who the most likely player/team marriages are (at least based on outward indications and what anonymous sources will share in the lying season)
Instead, I’m going to try to handicap with rough percentages the chance that players will make it into the top 32 in to give us an idea of the landscape of the first round (Previously: Handicapping the Top 10). There wiill always be surprises, but the overall buzz, team visits/interest, cumulative mock draft information, and amassing evalution information gives us a good idea of what should happen Thursday night.
LOCKS
Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina
Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn
Khalil Mack, DE/OLB, Buffalo
Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson
Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M
Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M
Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh
Blake Bortles, QB, Central Florida
Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
Zach Martin, OL, Notre Dame
Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina
Anthony Barr, DE/OLB, UCLA
Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State
Odell Beckham, WR, LSU
Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech
Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State
Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama
Nothing earthshattering here. Unless there are unknown medical or character issues lurking out there, this group is going to make up half of the first round.
98%
Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M
Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State
Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State
Jason Verrett, CB, TCU
CJ Mosley, LB, Alabama
Ra’Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota
Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State
This group is close to being locks but I can picture a scenario where they leak out of the first round, albeit an unlikely one. Manziel, Verrett, and Cooks have size questions. Dennard won’t be the most appealing corner to teams that want measureables and he has flaws on film. Roby didn’t look like a first-round pick in 2013 after a standout 2012. Hageman is more projection than production. There have been murmurs about Mosley’s medicals since at least the Combine.
All of this group profile as first-rounders, but every year a consensus first-rounder or three fall out of the first. Those names likely to come from this group.
95%
Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville
Pryor would probably be in the above list in most minds, but I can’t help but wonder if the flaws in his game could cause him to slide out of the first, with a safety or two that are better in coverage jumping ahead of him.
80%
Louis Nix, DT, Notre Dame
Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State
There’s no doubt that 2012 Nix would have been a first-round pick, but he wasn’t the same player in 2013. He is going to be more appealing to a limited group of 3-4 teams, which makes a fall a little more likely. Still, scarcity and quality dictate a pick by the mid 30s in just about any scenario.
NFL teams love Carr’s traits and his character/persona will charm them. With five teams sorely needing quarterback and the likelihood of trades back into the first for the third and maybe fourth QB off the board, Carr should be gone on the first day.
60%
Cyrus Kouandjio, OT, Alabama
Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri
Marqise Lee, WR, USC
Joel Bitonio, OL, Nevada
Kouandjio may come with the same medical red flag risk as Mosley, and he’s not as clean a prospect on tape, but he’s probably the fourth tackle on most board. Supply and demand puts the second tier of tackles squarely in the second half of the first mix, but the presence of two solid pass blockers right behind Kouandjio means there’s a chance he’ll fall to the early second. Ealy is similar to Hageman in that it’s not so much the player he is on tape as the player he can become and the need for athletic big men on the defensive line. Lee another name in the parade of players who finished on a low note and might inject doubt into the first-rounder commitment. Bitonio is frequently mocked in the late first and perhaps should have a higher number, but the relative value of the second tier of offensive line talents is relatively interchangeable, and a few will fall to the second.
**Note: We’re 31 names into the first round and we still have plenty of names left that could easily be legit first-rounders to any number of teams in the late first. This exercise illustrates the much-ballyhooed depth of this draft about as well I can do it. Any team in the 20’s can feel confident that they will find a similar talent 10-15 picks later because of the inevitable variety on teams’ boards at this point in the draft. In short, it’s hard to do something like without projecting more than 32 players going in the first round.**
50%
Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
Dee Ford, DE/OLB, Auburn
Xavier Su’a-Filo, OL, UCLA
Just like with Manziel and Bortles in the top 10, I have to shrug my shoulders when it comes down to the question of whether Bridgewater will fall out of the first. There’s no way a player with his tape should, but the NFL’s quarterback evaluation process is not something that I feel comfortable predicting.
Ford was a hot name after the Senior Bowl, but buzz has cooled and he is a one-dimensional player (although that one dimension - edge rushing - is very valuable). I won’t be surprised if he’s not quite essential enough to go in the first. Su’a-File, like Bitonio is the kind of offensive line glue that is a very safe use of a first round pick, but safe doesn’t always win out in the late first - especially when teams trade back up to get into the round.
40%
Morgan Moses, OT, Virginia
Ju’Waun James, OT, Tennessee
Moses and James won’t last too long in the second if they are there with the huge dropoff after the top six tackles. It’s hard to leave them out of the “more likely than not to go in the first” group, but that would require pushing out other players that are a little more attractive as prospects. Gauging the late first is difficult because drop offs at tiers within scarcer positions can inflate stock above the absolute grade. A second-round talent on tape can be worth a first to a team that doesn’t want to go without a top player at a position of need.
20%
Jimmie Ward, S, Northern Illinois
Ward is a clear first on my board, and I suspect the increasing positional value of safety combined with his ability to play single high and hang in man against slot receivers could even get him in the top 20, but he’s not big or an elite athlete, so the first-round luster isn’t as apparent as other safeties in this class.
10%
Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech
Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State
I’m not sure what do with this pair of massive passcatchers. Amaro isn’t really a rare talent, but he plays a role that is becoming more valuable in 21st century pass offenses. Benjamin is a rare talent, but drops and the one-year wonder worry make him look like a classic second-round wide receiver.
5%
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, Eastern Illinois
Marcus Martin, C, USC
Weston Richburg, C, Colorado State
Demarcus Lawrence, DE/OLB, Boise State
Dominique Easley, DT, Florida
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Washington
Cody Latimer, WR, Indiana
Garoppolo’s quick setup, release, and arm strength may intoxicate a team to jump the line and take him in the late first. Martin and Richburg split the votes as the #1 center, a position that has the potential to get into the first, as Travis Frederick reminded us (and later made the Cowboys look smart for a panned pick) last year. Lawrence is an explosive edge player on defense, always in demand. Easley is Donald’s equal, but with two torn ACLs in his past. A recent workout may allow him to do what Tank Carradine couldn’t last year, and sneak into the first round. Seferian-Jenkins also had a late workout that boasted a reported 4.56 40. That could be the tailwind to get him into the first. Latimer likewise had an outstanding workout after an injury caused him to miss the Combine, and his name has been in the late first mix since.
This is the “I can see it” group when it comes to first-round selections. They are the 39th-45th names listed, which again shows you the depth of this class. Each time you see a name from this tier get into the first, know that the perceived value of early seconds went up a notch with another quality name added to the mix.
5%
Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida State
Jernigan was already falling out of vogue in the first before the news of his diluted drug test specimen at the Combine. Percy Harvin stayed in the first after a bad drug test result at the Combine, but Jernigan is no Harvin when it comes to upside.
2%
Stanley Jean-Baptiste, CB, Nebraska
Scott Crichton, DE, Oregon State
Stephon Tuitt, DE/DT, Notre Dame
Deone Bucannon, S, Washington State
Tom Savage, QB, Pittsburgh
Jordan Matthews, WR, Vanderbilt
Martavis Bryant, WR, Clemson
You never know. When I soul-search about these guys, I can’t say there is zero chance they go in the first. There are fetishes (Jean-Baptiste length, Savage arm, Bryant size/speed), grinders (Crichton, Tuitt), a position value play (Bucannon), and the production/size receiver (Matthews).
There are others with greater than zero percent chance of going in the first, but more in the decimals, like Jeremiah Attaochu, Carlos Hyde, Kyle Van Noy, Donte Moncrief, and Allen Robinson. Notice that we are up to 53 before we get to these names. No matter how you arrange the second round, there are going to be players that conceivably carry first-round grades on some boards available in the second half of the round. The second round is going to more dramatic than years past, and it is likely to develop more impact players than previous years, too.