It's early, but looking over the basically finalized rosters of each of the 32 teams heading into the summer, one has some immediate strong feelings. There will be a lot of news and developments between now and the start of the season, but sometimes that knee-jerk first reaction ends up being the best take even though we abandon it when presented with new information in August. Here's a rundown of my gut feelings about each team heading into training camp:
AFC East
Buffalo
1) I’m not worried about C.J. Spiller. He dominated at an historic level in 2012, and he looked like that guy any time he had a week rest from his high ankle sprain last year. Don’t hesitate in the third.
2) Another reason I’m not worried is that the Bills’ brass is clearly pushing all of their chips in the middle of the table (trading next year’s first and fourth to get Sammy Watkins, and a fourth for Bryce Brown on draft weekend), gambling on their abliity to create an up-tempo, run-heavy offense. That makes all of your Bills a more interesting gamble because of the possibility of a 2013 Philadelphia Eagles fertile soil for fantasy point cultivation.
3) This would theoretically make EJ Manuel a better deep sleeper at QB, but after the way he finished last season, it is easy to doubt that, which scuffs the “emerging offense” luster of the Bills. Manuel was promising to begin the season, but fell off after returning from injury. If he doesn’t pick it up or can’t stay healthy again, look for Thad Lewis to be a surprise fantasy factor this year.
Miami
1) Mike Wallace was not the free agent bust everyone is making him out to be. He got open deep consistently, and Ryan Tannehill missed him, consistently. If new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor can bring some of the magic he helped create in Philadelphia, both Wallace and Tannehill will be great values in drafts this year.
2) Knowshon Moreno ran with a ton of heart last year, and he’s going to be an everydown back for Miami. He’s a value in in seventh or later, especially in nonPPR leagues, assuming he gets over early fitness issues.
3) A key for Tannehill and the passing game is going to be how new additions Branden Albert (free agency) and Ja’Wuan James (first-round pick) do at stemming the tide against defenses that sacked Miami quarterbacks a league-leading 58 times.
New England
1) Tom Brady was horrific for fantasy in the first half of the year, but so were his targets. From weeks 9-16 of 2013, he was the third highest scoring quarterback in most formats. If he can even have two of Rob Gronkowski, Shane Vereen, Julian Edelman, and Danny Amendola healthy for most of 2014, he’ll likely be a solid QB1. Just another reason to wait on QB this year as almost half of early FBG rankings have him at QB12 or lower.
2) Everyone forgets so quickly how well Brady and Danny Amendola were riffing before he got hurt in the preseason and never got back to 100%. Of course you might say he is destined to get hurt again, and that was before Julian Edelman broke out, but Amendola’s ADP is in the 10th round now, more the reasonable for a player with his upside. Edelman’s injury history is also shaky, so Amendola has an even higher ceiling if he can stay healthy and Edelman goes down.
3) Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley gave us good pictures on why they are worth the trouble and why they are not worth the trouble last year. The Patriots will likely be good at running the ball and both will have some great games, but predictability of usage and performance may be too difficult to justify a pick in the 4th-6th round range.
New York Jets
1) Don’t rule out the possibility of solid fantasy performances from Geno Smith and/or Michael Vick. Vick has been reunited with the offensive coordinator that oversaw his big years in Philadelphia (Marty Mornhinweg) and whoever the quarterback is will have the benefit of the addition of Eric Decker and second-round TE Jace Amaro.
2) Chris Johnson and Chris Ivory will each get 200+ carries if the Jets have a successful season, but both will be unreliable week-to-week. The Jets running game might be productive on the whole, but it’s probably best to avoid both backs unless they fall a lot farther than expected.
3) Decker will have a few huge games this year, and may even ride those games and target volume to a 1,000 yard season, but when he faces a good #1 corner (like he will against all three divisional opponents), he’ll struggle. He’s not worth a pick in the top 30-35 wide receivers.
AFC South
Houston
1) It’s really hard to love an offense with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. If last year’s Titans are any indication, Andre Johnson can retain his third-round PPR value, but this is definitely one of the offenses we want to put on “dumpsterfire watch”.
2) Arian Foster is healthy, but it’s difficult to project how he will perform in a new offense, once again, with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. I wouldn’t take him in the first, and probably not in the second, either, which means I’m not going to end up with him in many leagues.
3) DeAndre Hopkins might have second year breakout appeal to some, but the quality of offense and quarterback will make me look elsewhere for wide receiver fliers in the 9th-12th.
Indianapolis
1) The playoffs brought a tantalizing glimpse of what Andrew Luck could do in fantasy leagues with the reins taken off, and the Colts invested in his wide receiver corps to give him better outside threats short and long term. He’ll probably still be overdrafted in the deepest year at QB yet, but if you want to pull the trigger in the 5th/6th, I won’t talk you out of it.
2) The Colts are standing by Trent Richardson, and if he falls to the 5th/6th, it might be worth the plunge. Even if he is mediocre again, a full complement of goal-line carries and more receptions can make him a solid RB2 no matter what his YPC is.
3) It’s hard to isolate one of TY Hilton, Reggie Wayne, and Hakeem Nicks as the best value among Colts wide receivers, but Dwayne Allen is clearly the tight end to target here. He’s back to 100% health and he might end up being the team’s top red zone passing option. Check out his 20-yard score from week 1 last year before he got hurt as a preview.
Jacksonville
1) It’s easy to dismiss the Jaguars offense when it comes to fantasy value, but offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch is a potential innovator and open to adaptations to personnel. This offense might be as dismal as years past, but that doesn’t mean to completely avoid Jaguars in your drafts.
2) Specifically, you should be thinking about Toby Gerhart in the 5th/6th if you don’t get more than RB early in your draft. He has always been good when asked to carry the load, and he has little competition for significant touches. Unlike fellow free agent signings Ben Tate and Rashad Jennings, Gerhart did not see his team draft a running back in the mid-rounds to challenge him.
3) Cecil Shorts was productive in 2012 and he played through a ton of injuries in 2013, With all signs pointing to no Justin Blackmon for 2014 and two rookies next up on the depth chart outside, Shorts should be a late-round value target if he falls to the 10th or later.
Tennessee
1) Jake Locker was mid-breakout before his freak hip injury vs. the Jets, and then he was rudely greeted by matchups against the 49ers and Rams before getting hurt again. He has the dual threat profile we love in fantasy and now a QB-friendly coach in Ken Whisenhunt and the makings of a very good offensive line. He’ll likely go undrafted, but he should be on waiver wire speed dial if he starts hot vs the Chiefs in Week 1.
2) Bishop Sankey is not a flashy talent, but he is the best back on the roster in Tennessee. Rookie hype in redraft can be strong and he likely to go to a team willing to take him in the fourth, or even third round. I wouldn’t include him in your draft Plan A this year.
3) Justin Hunter is exactly the kind of wide receiver you want to target in the 12th or later. You might end up cutting him, but if he hits with his newfound opportunity, his size/speed combination will equal more 100+ yard games with a score. He had two in the last six weeks of 2013 - although he fell off of the map after being inactive after violating team rules before Week 15.
AFC North
Baltimore
1) I tend to bet on players like Ray Rice bouncing back, but I wouldn’t do it before the fourth round. His hip injury and the Ravens horrendous run blocking are both good excuses for his poor 2013, and the Ravens have brought in Gary Kubiak to fix the running game. I’m not pounding on the table for Rice, but he’s only 27, so it’s early to predict that he’s gone over the cliff.
2) Torrey Smith was the only game in town last year, and he still started off hot despite having no one to distract coverage. As the offense fell apart, so did his fantasy numbers, but with help from a returning Dennis Pitta and new addition Steve Smith, I would be willing to take the incumbent Smith in the 7th round.
3) Pitta looked like a potential top five tight end before the Smith and Owen Daniels additions. He will probably still be the second option in the passing game, but the third and fourth options are a lot more attractive now, and that’s not even factoring in passes to Ray Rice and deep shots to Jacoby Jones. He just blends into a large mid-low TE1 pack now.
Cincinnati
1) Hue Jackson taking over as offensive coordinator means that this offense will get a lot less subtle and a lot more dependant on the running game. Andy Dalton will be lucky to sniff QB1 numbers and second-round pick Jeremy Hill will get a large role right out of the game. About the only thing that will be similar to last year is the status of AJ Green.
2) Giovani Bernard lost a little bit of upside when Hill was drafted, but in PPR leagues, he’ll still be a solid RB2. Chances are someone will take him earlier than I would, which is in the mid-late third round.
3) Marvin Jones is another wide receiver for your 12th round or later list. He had the best red zone efficiency of any wide receiver in the league in 2013, and he should grow into the full-time WR2 role opposite Green this year.
Cleveland
1) If any rookie QB can succeed in fantasy with almost no help in the passing game, it would be Johnny Manziel. The Browns are making noise about taking it slow with him, but if he is on track to start Week 1, he’ll be worth a late pick in all formats. If he does, he’ll be worth a speculative pickup as soon as he is plugged into the lineup. The additional fantasy punch that his legs and derring-do provides might be explosive on stat sheets.
2) Ben Tate never seemed that entrenched as a solid RB2 despite having the backfield all to himself before the draft. Now that he’ll be pushed two rookie backs, you won’t want to go near him at his ADP. Watch out for UDFA Isaiah Crowell, who might be the most talented back on the roster.
3) At this moment, the length of Josh Gordon’s suspension is unknown, but if it is eight games or less, don’t be afraid to take him in the 8th round or later and sit on him. The opportunity cost of a roster spot is minimal compared to the top 5 overall production he can provide when he returns.
Pittsburgh
1) Ben Roethlisberger might have a career year in 2014. If deep threat Markus Wheaton and size/speed fourth-round pick Martavis Bryant can get and stay on the field, they will lethal three-wide sets, and Heath Miller should be back to his old self this year. Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense both came alive for fantasy once the team let him run more no huddle in the second half of the season.
2) Speaking of Miller, he is falling well into the double-digit rounds, when his fantasy profile is not really that far off of Jason Witten or Dennis Pitta, who are going much earlier. If you go with a speculative TE1 like Zach Ertz or Kyle Rudolph, Miller can be a good baseline TE who can actually be a solid TE1 and trade bait even if your upside play hits.
3) Antonio Brown’s consistency in PPR leagues last year was stunning. With at least five catches in every game, he was the rare wide receiver who has no duds over the course of a season. Brown was actually more productive in the second half of the season, so he has earned and should deliver on his 2nd round ADP.
AFC West
Denver
1) Peyton Manning is likely to go in the first round of a lot of drafts, which is too steep a price to pay, but if your league gets into a game of who will be the last to take a QB chicken, I would consider Peyton in the third. He’ll still pace QB production, and could be even more productive if Montee Ball is a dud.
2) Speaking of Ball, his early 2nd ADP is too rich for an unproven player with mediocre talent. His situation is outstanding, but spending one of your first two picks on a situation can be an ill-fated strategy.
3) Watch out for second-round pick Cody Latimer if he has a solid camp. He is a better outside threat than Emmanuel Sanders, and his run blocking could also get him on the field early. Basically any competent passcatcher on the field with Peyton Manning had value last year. Latimer certainly qualifies.
Kansas City
1) It might shock you to learn that Alex Smith had an 18/4 TD-INT ratio over his last seven games of 2013. It is a bit dismaying that the Chiefs didn’t do anything to improve the receiving corps that let him down repeatedly, but his largely unnoticed improved play and ability to get yards as a runner will keep him flirting with QB1 value at a great discount this year.
2) Dwayne Bowe improved in the second half of the season and finally looked like his old self in the playoff loss to the Colts. With four scores over that seven-game span and no real #2 receiver to take away significant targets, Bowe is an easy pick if he keeps falling to the 10th round.
3) If there is going to be a knight in shining armor to help Bowe and Smith in the passing game this year, it is likely to be 2013 third-round pick Travis Kelce. He had microfracture knee surgery last year, but he will be counted on to play a big role this year. He flashed a Gronkowski-esque size/athleticism/mean streak at times in college, so keep him on your preseason watch list.
Oakland
1) It’s hard to put lipstick on this pig. The backfield is split, none of the receivers have #1 skills, and the quarterback is a retread. The offensive line isn’t exactly a bright spot. If there is an offense to completely avoid in 2014 drafts, the Raiders are it.
2) One of Maurice Jones-Drew or Darren McFadden could certainly have some value as Rashad Jennings did on this team last year, but neither was close in 2013 to what they were in recent heydays. With an offense that might bog down more often than not, it’s not worth taking a Raider back unless they fall to the 12th round or later.
3) If there is a player to note here, it’s tight end Mychal Rivera, who was listed as a “foundation piece” by head coach Dennis Allen. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Rivera double his 38-407-4 line from 2013 (as a rookie), which would put him in TE1 scoring territory. Don’t spend a pick on Rivera, but know that he could break out this year.
San Diego
1) The tale of two offensive seasons for the Chargers isn’t pretty if you are targeting Philip Rivers as a bargain QB1. His attempts, yards, and touchdowns all dropped by at least 10% in the second half of the season. He’ll be solid, but remember that Rivers had four multii-TD games in the first five, and then five in the next 11.
2) Not to be a downer, but Keenan Allen also saw a big dropoff in production in the second half of the year. He didn’t really get involved until Week 4, and proceeded to have 31-497-3 over the next five games. In the second half of the season, over eight games as the #1 receiver, Allen mustered 37-519-5. Quality WR2/WR3 numbers, but not worthy of the low WR1 late 3rd/early 4th ADP he currently has.
3) We were all ready to move on Ryan Mathews, and then he had to go turn into a durable running back who looked like a former first-round pick. Mathews was a strong RB2 in the second half of the season before overuse in December keep him muted in the playoffs. It sounds strange, but he’s probably the safest RB2 picks in the fourth round.
NFC East
Dallas
1) Tony Romo is falling out of the top 12 quarterbacks in a lot of drafts, which makes waiting on quarterback even easier. Scott Linehan taking a role as “passing game coordinator” will keep the pass attempts high if his history is any indication. The offensive line will be improved with the addition of first-round OT/OG Zach Martin. Sean Lee’s injury means the defense is more likely to be woeful and force a ton of shootouts. Romo is in line for a big season, and is yet another reason to wait on your QB1.
2) Demarco Murray is still unfairly singled out as “injury prone” for injuries that are more like Frank Gore’s than Darren McFadden’s. He was durable and put up bonafide RB1 numbers last year. If he continues to fall to the 2nd round, he’s a very good pick as an RB1 after you take a WR/TE to start your draft.
3) Terrance Williams is as good a breakout WR candidate in the 8th/9th as any name you’ll find there. He’ll get a high volume of targets as the undisputed #2 receiver, and being out there with Dez Bryant and Jason Witten will ensure that he draws single coverage against the weak secondaries of the NFC East
New York Giants
1) The new west coast offense will be perfect for Victor Cruz’s skills from the slot. Look for a 100 catch season and excellent PPR value in the fourth round. Rueben Randle and Odell Beckham are both nice late sleepers on potential volume of targets in this offense.
2) The backfield looks like a jumble at first glance with a very good free agent signing (Rashad Jennings), fourth-round pick (Andre Williams), and former first-round pick coming back from neck surgery (David Wilson). Wilson is the most likely to be a homerun at his 10th/11th round ADP, while Jennings could be a solid single in the 5th.
3) Eli Manning bottomed out last year, but in this offense he could be a nice matchup play against the weak array of defenses in the NFC East. If things are clicking early, Manning could be a nice component in a QBBC approach.
Philadelphia
1) Too much of a good thing can be a bad thing when we are trying to forecast who will hit in the Philadelphia passing game in any given week. Between LeSean McCoy, Zach Ertz, Riley Cooper, Jeremy Maclin, and Jordan Matthews, there may be too many mouths to feed to maintain consistency in a run-first offense. This does, however, help the case for Nick Foles staying in the top 5 fantasy quarterbacks without DeSean Jackson.
2) Speaking of Foles, he seemed to benefit from a lot of good luck on the way to his Peyton-esque numbers. It will be hard to maintain that level of production without a better level of play - which is possible. His ADP of QB6/6th round (roughly) could be a great value in hindsight, but I am probably waiting for later potential values in the deep QB group. I won’t talk you out of Foles, though.
3) Chris Polk is one of the best handcuffs and late-round running backs. He’ll be the primary backup to LeSean McCoy and poised to inherit one of the best running games in the league if McCoy goes down. We all remember McCoy looking like he was seriously hurt more than once last year. If it comes to pass this year, everyone will envy the Polk owner.
Washington
1) Robert Griffin III III is healthier, and he’ll have a coach who believes in him this year. A coach who made Andy Dalton a solid fantasy quarterback. Oh, and he also gained DeSean Jackson this offseason. Are you getting tired of reading “he’s another reason to wait on quarterback this year” yet?
2) Alfred Morris is a tough nut to crack. He loses the scheme that made him (and so many other previously unheralded backs) fantasy stars, but Morris also displayed foundation skills like initial burst and getting yards after contact. Still, it feels like there are better bets in the late 2nd/early 3rd in PPR leagues.
3) Pierre Garcon is going a round or more earlier than DeSean Jackson in most drafts, which just seems wrong to me. Both are strong WR2 candidates. Garcon might be more consistent week-to-week, while Jackson has more upside, Jackson should possibly be ranked ahead of Garcon in leagues with distance touchdown bonuses.
NFC North
Chicago
1) Jay Cutler should be a safe low QB1, with mid QB1 upside, especially in 6 pt passing touchdown leagues. He is a very fantasy-friendly pass offense, and there’s no reason to feel uncomfortable with him as your starter entering the season… yet another QB you can wait on.
2) Ka’Deem Carey could be one of the most valuable handcuffs with a good camp and preseason. Matt Forte has missed games in the past, and this appears to be a plug and play offense on the back of the strong passing game.
3) Keep an eye on Marquess Wilson, who was a 2nd-3rd round talent who fell to the end of the 2013 draft because he quit Mike Leach’s Washington State team mid-season in 2012. If either of Brandon Marshall or Alshon Jeffery get hurt, he’ll be very valuable, assuming he wins the #3 WR job this summer.
Detroit
1) Matthew Stafford has gotten two new shiny weapons, but he finished 2013 playing some of the worst football of his career. While he could return to near-elite 2011 levels under the tutelage of new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, straight from New Orleans, I’d rather gamble on a QB with similar upside later in my draft.
2) Golden Tate will certainly surpass career highs in the more potent Detroit pass offense, but WR3/Flex level production is probably his upside with so many RB/TE targets in addition to of course, Calvin Johnson. As of right now, he is a little underrated with a 7th round ADP, but that could change.
3) All signs point to Joique Bell getting close to a 50-50 split with Reggie Bush this year, but he is still going about two rounds after Bush in most drafts. Add in the Bell will get goal line carries (where he has been very effective), and Bell is easily the smarter pick in the Lions backfield.
Green Bay
1) I’m not against taking a QB early, but I might be reluctant to make Rodgers that QB. The Packers offense is becoming more balanced with Eddie Lacy, and they seemed content to win low-scoring games if the defense allowed them to. Rodgers rushing touchdowns are also tailing off, which was a nice bonus compared to Manning, Brady and Brees types in the past.
2) Jordy Nelson has produced like a WR1 any time he and Aaron Rodgers have both been healthy over the last three years. He could end up being a value in the third round.
3) Jarrett Boykin showed great chemistry with Aaron Rodgers in limited time on the field together last year, and the #3 job is his to open the season. If either of Randall Cobb or Jordy Nelson struggle with injuries again, he could be a massive steal in the 10th round or later, and WR3/Flex weekly production is still possible if they stay healthy.
Minnesota
1) Teddy Bridgewater could be the best thing that happened to Cordarrelle Patterson (and the Vikings in general). He is hyperaccurate on short and intermediate timing passes, which will play right into Patterson’s elite run after catch ability. He’s worth the speculative second year breakout pick in the 2nd round.
2) I’m not totally buying into the Kyle Rudolph breakout simply on the track record of new offensive coordinator Norv Turner’s track record with tight ends, but at a 8th/9th round ADP, it’s hard to argue against taking the chance.
3) Greg Jennings is falling out of the top 50 wide receivers drafted in most leagues, but he was actually a decent WR3/Flex with Matt Cassel last year, and he could be even better with Bridgewater. He’s worth a pick in the 12th round or later.
NFC South
Atlanta
1) Once Roddy White got kind of healthy, he was a PPR stud again. His 5th round ADP is a bit baffling to me. He’s a very strong WR2 with WR1 potential who is a slam dunk in PPR leagues if he is still there in the fifth.
2) Matt Ryan is also generally falling to the late 6th/7th, which is an easy pick in 6 pt pass TD leagues. His offensive line should be greatly improved, and he was fighting a losing battle last year. Have I mentioned that there are a lot of good reasons to wait at quarterback this year?
3) If Steven Jackson can stay healthy, he’ll be a value RB2 in the sixth round. If you believe he won’t (and he didn’t last year), Devonta Freeman becomes very attractive in the 10th round. It’s possible that Freeman is impressive enough to keep a big chunk of the backfield even after Jackson returns from an injury mid-season, as he did last year. Freeman is one of the best upside RB picks after you fill out your starters.
Carolina
1) I want no part of Cam Newton this year. Big games can and will come, but good luck figuring out which weeks his ragtag bunch of targets will show up. He’s one of the few QBs I can say to clearly avoid this year considering the depth and quality at the position.
2) The best of that group of targets is probably rookie Kelvin Benjamin, because he’ll be force-fed the ball in the red zone, and maybe even elsewhere on the field. If he continues to fall to the 10th round or later, he’ll be on most of my teams.
3) One more go-round with Jonathan Stewart? Since you can get him in the 15th round or later, what’s the harm? He’s “healthy” at least by his standards, and he’s still only 27 years old.
New Orleans
1) At least one Saints wide receiver will be a great value at ADP, and possibly more than one. Marques Colston (7th/8th) was fine once he got a week off, and Kenny Stills (9th/10th) can be one part Lance Moore, one part Devery Henderson. Brandin Cooks (9th/10th) has the rookie shininess, but he might take a little while to get going.
2) I’ll still happily take Jimmy Graham in the late 1st/early 2nd of PPR leagues. He should be the best fantasy tight end by a decent margin, and if he can stay healthy for a whole season, he’ll put TE numbers at a level that no one may reach again because of the pass-happy nature of his offense.
3) The Saints backfield has pretty much become an off limits proposition, with the possible exception of Pierre Thomas in the PPR leagues. He should get 50+ receptions easily with Darren Sproles gone, but I still expect him to trail at least one of Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson in carries.
Tampa Bay
1) Vincent Jackson was close to WR1 level last year despite playing with no one to draw coverage and poor or inexperienced QB play. He’s another solid third round pick who could pay off with a career year.
2) Doug Martin could be a value at his early 2nd ADP, but the drafting of Charles Sims in the third round indicates a desire to carve out a big role for a receiving back, and Martin’s value was based in part of his heavy workload. I won’t be surprised if he delivers on a second-round pick, but I’ll use mine elsewhere.
3) Mike Evans deep ball and red zone abilities combined with a strong #1 WR to isolate him in good one-on-one matchups makes him the most likely rookie wide receiver to reach everyweek starter levels. Boom/bust drafters should love him in the 8th.
NFC West
Arizona
1) Carson Palmer could easily surpass the low QB1 (but now more routine than ever) 4000/30 level of production if the offensive line gels around 2013 #7 pick Johnathan Cooper and free agent signing Jared Veldheer.
2) If that does happen, both Larry Fitzgerald could pay off big in drafts. It’s easy to forget Fitzgerald played hurt for the most of the year, and we could easily be seeing Michael Floyd in the same vein as Alshon Jeffery by the end of September.
3) Don’t get hung up on what Andre Ellington won’t get to do because Bruce Arians might want to err on the side of preserving him. Think about what Ellington has already shown he can do last year. He’s an easy call as an RB2 in the third if CJ Spiller is gone. A Spiller/Ellington combo in the 3rd/4th is a dream if you go WR/WR or WR/TE to start your PPR draft.
St. Louis
1) Sam Bradford was actually productive as a passer last year, but it’s still hard to trust him or Brian Schottenheimer to consistently jumpstart this pass offense. The targets are mostly role players, and the offense will remain run heavy, so we can confidently avoid the whole thing.
2) If you’re in the small faction holding out hope for Kenny Britt, Stedman Bailey’s four-game suspension to open the season will give him the opportunity to create momentum. Deep dynasty leaguers should also watch what Brian Quick and Chris Givens do with this momentum, as many are on the waiver wire in shallow leagues.
3) The Rams running game has the potential to be a fantasy goldmine again this year, but it’s getting more difficult to wager a pick in the first two rounds on Zac Stacy with third-round pick Tre Mason saying the coaches told him he’ll get to compete to start. This situation has the potential to reverse the value in redraft if Stacy starts to fall and Mason gets within a few rounds of him in ADP.
San Francisco
1) Colin Kaepernick didn’t have Michael Crabtree for most of 2013, and some of his running ability remained untapped early in the season. He’s a fine QB1 if you get him outside of the top 10.
2) The 49ers have a beautiful mess at running back, but it is compelling because of the quality of their running game in recent seasons. Frank Gore should open the season as the starter, but any of Kendall Hunter, Marcus Lattimore, and Carlos Hyde could outperform him and seize a good-sized share of RB touches. Hyde is the most compelling from a redraft perspective, but don’t count out Hunter. Lattimore should be avoided in redraft unless he shines in the preseason.
3) Vernon Davis is never going to produce up to his talent level. Red zone studliness made him a solid TE1 last year, but with a little coming back to earth in touchdown scoring, Davis would take a big tumble in PPR leagues.
Seattle
1) At some point in the future, this offense will become more Russell Wilson-centric, but it probably won’t be this year. Percy Harvin is still falling far enough to make him a worthy gamble in the 5th or 6th. but otherwise this pass offense is a tough sell in drafts. Wilson, like Kaepernick, is a fine QB1 if you get him outside of the top 10 or so.
2) Our eagerness to anticipate RB drop off may make Marshawn Lynch a steady part of draft plans if he is still there in the second round. He will lead the team in rushes and touchdowns and still be a top 10-12 RB any time the Seahawks are favored.
3) Christine Michael has the potential to be as valuable as Lynch if Lynch misses time, but that seems unlikely, and Michael has the extra sleeper cost of likely clogging up a roster spot for most if not all of the season if you invest a pick in him. If Michael falls to the 9th or later, that might be a winning proposition with the noise about RBBC in Seattle, but Lynch is still going to be the most valuable back here by a good margin.