I am getting way too many questions this week asking me if it is time to trade Michael Vick. If anything, this is a sign that it's time to trade for Michael Vick.
what do you have in Vick?
It's pretty clear that Vick is going to be a massive fantasy football hit in the Chip Kelly offense, just like he was in 2010. Anyone who faced or owned Vick that year remembers how he was an unfair advantage for his owners. Like getting to have an extra player in their lineup. Vick scored nearly 40 points last week and there were 2-3 long touchdowns left on the field. Like Peyton Manning, his numbers this year might shatter our previous beliefs for what is possible at quarterback in fantasy leagues. Only Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and maybe Robert Griffin III will approach Vick's point totals this year at quarterback. If we were drafting today, Vick would be at worst a third-round pick.
Okay, But I drafted vick to back up drew brees
Then trade Brees. Or at least try to. Brees is more likely to fetch that elite wide receiver or running back or Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski you need to really dominate your league. Vick's perceived injury risk is overstated in the fantasy football world as a hit on his value. This goes for Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers too.
Great, i did it, now what do i do when vick gets hurt
You really don't have to sweat much. In a typical 4 point pass touchdown and point per 20 yards scoring format, no fewer than 20 quarterbacks averaged at least 19 points in the first two weeks of the season, and that doesn't include Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and Cam Newton. Low-end QB1 scoring is going to be available for cheap via the waiver wire or trade, or you can just roster Nick Foles, who should be a 15-20 point play for any weeks that Vick misses.
We should also examine Vick's history a little closer. He has played about 12 games on average in each of the last three years. Yes, he misses time, but he has had no season-ending injuries, and one might argue that he was kept out for longer than necessary when he missed six games last year because the team was in shambles. Vick has been on the field for all of the fantasy playoffs two of the last three years, and he was far and away the #1 fantasy quarterback during the playoffs in 2010.
Vick may also lose you a game if he gets knocked out early in a contest, but that has only happened twice in the last three years. So an extra loss and 3-4 games with 15-20 points a game from your quarterback is the likely cost of having Vick as your QB1 this year. What you are giving up, unless you own Peyton/Brees/Rodgers and maybe Griffin is a 5+ point weekly advantage on average at quarterback.
The exceptions
There are two cases I can think of where it would be smart to trade Vick, assuming you are getting his real value.
Exception 1 is if you were able to hit at running back and wide receiver and you are fine everywhere. If your draft went McCoy--Forte--Gronk--Peyton--Nelson--DeSean with Vick as a later pick, and you can recoup Vick's true third/fourth round value in a deal (ie a strong RB2 or low WR1), then see if you can lock in the value, because you are set (and send me a writing sample, because you might be Footballguys staff material).
Exception 2 is if you are hemorrhagging points at RB/WR/TE and you can plug that hole with an RB1/WR1/Graham/Gronk in exchange for Vick. In that case you are recouping the 5+ point a week that you are losing at quarterback, and as we've discussed, quarterback is an easy position to at least duct tape and get adequate numbers at this year.
While we're on the subject of philadelphia
Make sure that the DeSean Jackson owner is correctly valuing him as a top five receiver on a par with Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, or AJ Green with a trade offer this week. Some people are slow to accept the new realities of each NFL season. Don't be one of them.
