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BUY LOW
Josh Gordon, WR, Jordan Cameron, TE, CLE (Redraft) - The loss of Brian Hoyer is a blow, but Brandon Weeden is better for Gordon and Cameron than most think, and the Browns are still going to be a team that leans pass-happy on offense. This is a momentarily lull in the value of two guys who look like they are here to stay.
Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN (Redraft) - Moreno is coming off of his best game of the year, so he doesn’t seem like a buy low, but he might still come at a discount from his low RB1/high RB2 value because his owner paid so little for him. He is a different and better back than the merely competent player that was a low RB1 last year after Willis McGahee went down, so his upside might be higher than anyone is contemplating, even right now.
Andre Caldwell, WR, DEN (Redraft/Dynasty) - For those you in very deep leagues, Caldwell is a fun player to stash away. He has flashed more than baseline ability as a deep target, and if one of the Broncos’ top three receivers go down, he steps into boom/bust WR3/Flex value, with the potential for more.
Garrett Graham, TE, HOU (Redraft/Dynasty) - Graham is stepping into a seemingly short-term window of opportunity with Owen Daniels’ fibula injury, but he could easily display enough added value with his younger legs and better overall athleticism to seize a larger role even after Daniels returns. Graham is a free agent in 2014 and this could get him a larger opportunity elsewhere, that is if the Texans don’t re-sign him.
Trent Richardson, RB, IND (Redraft) - We’re relying on a bit of assumption of rational coaching here, but the Colts offense is trending in a good direction for Richardson. If you look past his low yards per carry, Richardson is running strong at the end of games, and he is being used a lot like the way Marshawn Lynch was used after Seattle traded for him. Richardson will get a lot of carries salting away wins, and big runs will start to come against tired defenses. The line is packed too tight on power run sets, and Richardson isn’t finding any room to run. To be fair, like Lynch, Richardson needs to get a little smaller and quicker, but you can see his considerable physical talent on runs later in the game. At worst, Richardson will be 2012 Shonn Greene on a better team with better tools. I still see the making of Marshawn Lynch in Seattle in Richardson. I have tried to get Richardson in dynasty leagues this week, and his owners are still clutching him very tightly, asking top 5 RB value in exchange.
Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC (Dynasty) - In redraft, Bowe is looking like a lost cause. He is a low ceiling flex play at best, and better suited to be a bye/injury/emergency play. He is going through the motions right now and mainly looking like a disinterested decoy. In dynasty, Bowe is still a player in his prime, and his situation can only get better over time. He just turned 29 and there’s no way that his skills just dropped off a cliff as his play makes it seem. If his owner was counting on Bowe to play a big role, you might be able to get him a deep discount to stash away for a likely future renaissance.
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAX (Dynasty) - Just like Bowe, if you were expecting something from Jones-Drew in redraft, you’re going to be waiting a while. It just isn’t worth plugging him in every week and hoping that this is the week he finally hits. In dynasty, you should see a resurgence from Jones-Drew on his new team next year. He hasn’t looked like a running back on the decline, he’s just on the worst team in the NFL, and not the same back he was in 2011 when he led the NFL in rushing under similar conditions. If his owner’s team needs help to get into the playoff race, you might get Jones-Drew for a lot cheaper than you would think.
Darren McFadden, RB, OAK (Redraft/Dynasty) - McFadden, like Michael Vick and Ryan Mathews, is back to being the butt of injury jokes (I’ll even cop to a few myself). He is reliably unreliable, and his owners in both redraft and dynasty formats are wondering exactly what they have in him. Meanwhile, Terrelle Pryor has turned an offense with a ramshackle offensive line into a viable group that can chew up yardage and points like no Raiders has in a while (unless you count garbage time). McFadden should benefit from Pryor’s running ability and improving passing skills (he just missed a long TD reception in the season opener against the Colts), and he is under contract through next year. It can’t hurt to see just how low his owner will sell the talented, but fragile running back right now.
Philip Rivers, QB, SD, (Redraft/Dynasty) - Rivers is another example of a player whose value is surging up, but might still go lower than he should on the trade market because of expectations going into the season, and his likely role as backup quarterback for his fantasy team. Rivers should remain a solid QB1 throughout the season in this offense, and he closes with three excellent (NYG, DEN, OAK) matchups in the fantasy playoffs. His perceived value still hasn’t caught up to his real value, which is close to say Tom Brady - in other words, where Rivers value was before the disastrous season of 2012.
Keenan Allen, WR, SD (Redraft) - Allen is the #1 receiver in a great pass offense with a great quarterback. He is worth 50% of your waiver wire blind bid budget (if not more if you’re a Julio Jones owner). He’ll benefit from the same soft schedule in the playoffs that Rivers will, and he’ll be a solid fantasy WR2 going forward. Don’t underestimate his value just because we didn’t expect it going into the season.
Julio Jones, WR, ATL (Dynasty) - If you’ve always wanted Julio Jones in your dynasty league, this is your chance to get him. Owners that are distressed because they lack the depth to cover the hole left by Jones might be willing to sell him for below market value - which is a top 10 overall player in PPR dynasty leagues.
Terrelle Pryor, QB, OAK (Redraft/Dynasty) - You might have one more chance to get this rising star before his owners see him for what he is now. Pryor has the right recipe for major fantasy success, both this year and beyond. With every passing week of marked improvement from Pryor, the chances that the Raiders go QB in the first round next year (or even be in position to get one of the top prospects) goes way down. Pryor is at worst a top 15 quarterback in both dynasty and redraft right now.
SELL HIGH
Chris Johnson, RB, TEN (Redraft/Dynasty) - Johnson got a dumpoff from Ryan Fitzpatrick that was extremely well-blocked downfield, but otherwise looked overwhelmed by the Chiefs defense on his touches. More of that is coming vs. the Seahawks and 49ers the next two weeks, and there is no sign that he will get goal line carries any time soon. Johnson isn’t the same back he was in the past, so use this fluke big play to sell him for a real RB2 like Moreno.
Pierre Thomas, RB, NO (Redraft/Dynasty) - Thomas got a ton of touches, but he did nothing with his carries, and only really impressed on his longer screen pass touchdown. He is one of a myriad of weapons for the Saints, and one that will likely not be featured to this extent again all season. He is just a flex play, or perhaps low RB2 in PPR leagues, but you might get more for that right now from an RB-needy team than you should be able to.
Alshon Jeffery, WR, CHI (Dynasty) - I do think Jeffery is the real deal, although an overexuberant owner could let you use Jeffery as a stepping stone to someone who is already what we hope Jeffery will become, like AJ Green. Never hurts to try. If you’re stacked at WR and Jeffery is expendable, you might also be able to use him as a piece to get a stud QB/RB/TE. If someone approaches you to ask about Jeffery in dynasty leagues, aim for the stars. You might actually reach them.
Tony Gonzalez, TE, ATL (Redraft) - Gonzalez is soon going to be the last man standing in the Falcons pass offense. While I believe in him to keep playing well and playing hard despite his dream of playing in Super Bowl in his final season going by the wayside, I also expect defenses to take him away and force someone else to beat them. If you have Gonzalez paired with Jordan Cameron, it might be a good moment to see if you can get premium value for him.
Austin Pettis, WR, STL (Redraft/Dynasty) - Pettis is just a mediocre talent on the level of Brandon Gibson, but he has surprisingly been the most consistent player in the Rams pass offense. Some are even lumping him in with hotter waiver wire pickups like Keenan Allen. Cash him in for whatever you can get in all formats this week.
