Buy Low
Ray Rice, RB, BAL (Redraft) - Just like the leaves changing, we’re at that time of year when the Ravens say “we have to get Ray Rice more involved”. Rice looked fine on his paltry amount of touches vs. Buffalo, and he should be back to low RB1 status as the Ravens offensive line is much improved with the addition of Eugene Monroe.
Trent Richardson, RB, IND (Redraft/Dynasty) - Richardson’s low yards per carry conceals how many yards he is getting after contact in a running game that is still falling into place. Richardson looks like he’ll be the lead back all year with Ahmad Bradshaw ailing, and he should get enough goal line carries to be a low RB1 even if he continues to run for under four yards a carry. If he does start to break big runs, he’ll have elite RB1 upside.
Danny Woodhead, RB, SD (Redraft) - Woodhead has more value than even the most optimistic preseason projections. He is a feature back in the red zone, and heavily involved in a revived passing offense led by Philip Rivers playing the best football of his career. Ryan Mathews is on the injury report, so Woodhead could have even more added to his strong RB2 value in PPR leagues. He’s a middle class Sproles, which means he is likely undervalued by his owner.
Stevan Ridley, RB, NE (Redraft) - Ridley’s value has bottomed out, as he hasn’t practiced this week and appears to be mired in a three-way committee from here on out. Ridley has still run the ball very well since his fumblepalooza season opener, and the imminent return of Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski means that game scripts which call for Ridley to carry the ball 15+ times with many trips to the red zone will become more common. He can probably be had for a Katy Perry song.
David Wilson, RB, NYG (Redraft/Dynasty) - With no sense of irony, I am telling you that this is your last chance to get on the Wilson express. He has been breaking multiple tackles and running hot every week, but the game scripts and usage of the Giants running backs have not allowed him to get on track. With a game against the porous Eagles defense and the release of Da’Rel Scott this week, Wilson should finally start to deliver on his lofty draft stock. Take advantage of his owners disappointment while you can.
Keenan Allen, WR, SD (Redraft) - Allen was making outstanding adjustments to poorly thrown balls from Philip Rivers, and generally standing out from the very average Vincent Brown and Eddie Royal in the wide receiver corps. Antonio Gates is going to be the #1 receiver for this team, but Allen should emerge from the pack at wide receiver and have at least flex value going forward.
Terrelle Pryor, QB, OAK (Redraft/Dynasty) - Pryor’s missed game have given you one more week to get in on the ground floor of the player who could be next great running quarterback in fantasy leagues.
Alfred Morris, RB, WAS (Redraft/Dynasty) - Morris’s injury shouldn’t sideline in Week 6, so his buy low window remains open. If he hadn’t gone out against Washington, he would have likely had a 20 point week.
Eli Manning, QB, Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG (Redraft) Rueben Randle, WR, NYG (Redraft/Dynasty) - The Eagles defense has looked unable to stop opponents from doing what they want to do on offense, so as long as the offensive line is adequate (which is not a given), Manning and Nicks should get on track this week, with matchups against the weak Vikings and Eagles defense again coming up soon.
Kenny Stills, WR, NO (Redraft) - Stills is a great add in deep leagues because he can take the better parts of the Lance Moore and Devery Henderson roles and combine them to help fantasy teams. Moore is hurt and wasn’t involved much anyway, and Stills has performed well with the opportunity he has been given. Expect that grow in one of the most robust pass offense in the league as the season goes on.
Johnathan Franklin, RB, GB (Redraft) - Franklin’s dazzling game against the Bengals went mostly unnoticed going into the bye. While Eddie Lacy should still get the better part of this committee, Franklin’s performance should have forced a committee, so he has low-end flex weekly value. If Lacy can’t stay healthy, Franklin can be a lot more than that.
Andre Ellington, RB, ARI (Redraft) - Ellington’s initial burst and speed are so apparent that even Bruce Arians can’t ignore them. Arians favorite Rashard Mendenhall is working his way into the doghouse, which should put Ellington in the spotlight. I don’t love Arizona’s running game, but Ellington’s ability to break long runs and catch passes out of the backfield should offset that lower ceiling, certainly enough to be worth a pickup or pursuing him as a throw-in in a larger trade.
Sell High
Andy Dalton, QB, CIN (Redraft/Dynasty) - Dalton’s impressive rookie play has become less impressive in the second and third years of his career, when it has revealed that he is not growing as a quarterback. Dalton is still poor to barely adequate outside of the pocket, and he is not a precise or dangerous pocket passer. The Bengals offense and any fantasy lineup is limited by Dalton’s presence. Try to deal him in dynasty leagues while it still seems like he could become more than what he is right now.
Andrew Luck, QB, IND (Redraft/Dynasty) - Luck is still not as consistent and productive as his reputation would have you believe. Now that the Colts offense is becoming more conservative, Luck’s ceiling is capped for this year. Trading him in dynasty might seem risky because he has long term top 5 upside, but quarterback the easiest position to get by without a stud, and it could still be a few years before Luck really “arrives” for fantasy leagues. Don’t be too attached to him if someone will give you Romo for Luck in redraft, or another top 12-15 quarterback and a stud at another position in dynasty.
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAX (Redraft) - You would think that Jones-Drew’s value is next to nil in redraft leagues, but there is still some name brand value, regression to the mean belief, and the quality of the matchup against the Rams to wring some blood out of this stone this week.
Bilal Powell, RB, NYJ (Redraft/Dynasty) - Enjoy Powell’s value while it lasts because with Mike Goodson and Chris Ivory both rounding back into shape, he should resume his typical role of a reliable member in a running back by committee.
Le’Veon Bell, RB, PIT (Redraft) - Bell looked good in his debut, but he won’t be getting a lot of goal line love when the Steelers are playing the stout defenses of the AFC North. He is going to hold flex value as long as he stays healthy, but that is clearly not a given after the training camp/preseason he had. Don’t sell Bell for cheap, but do be willing to dangle him to a running back poor team.
