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Free agency is just around the corner, so the dynasty values that were at rest will start to move again very soon. The dead of the offseason is a great time to take advantage of player values that are still lagging behind reality because the memory of the previous season has overshadowed an accurate picture of a player’s current worth to your dynasty team. Let’s look at the best buy low and sell high values in dynasty leagues, starting with quarterbacks.
Buy Low
No One - Ok, I’m joking to an extent here, but the reality is that quarterback is not an essential fantasy position any longer. Perhaps in 16 team leagues, and of course in 2QB/QB Flex leagues, this does not apply, but otherwise, trading for a quarterback is a bad idea unless you are getting a deep discount from their true value. I would not be cashing in capital from other positions to upgrade my quarterback in dynasty leagues this offseason.
Matt Ryan, ATL - Ryan certainly qualifies as a quarterback who might be available well below his actual value. He’s a mid-QB1 who did not play one game last year with both of his top wide receivers healthy. He’ll lose Tony Gonzalez, but hopefully have an upgraded offensive line. He’s a long term answer in dynasty leagues who might be available cheap if his owner has another quarterback they were starting over Ryan in the second half of the season.
Peyton Manning, DEN - It shouldn’t happen because Manning’s owners witnessed his power first-hand last year, but age concerns and a belief that he will regress to the mean this season could make him a much more bargain-oriented acquisition than you think if his owner is going into rebuilding mode.
Jay Cutler, CHI - Cutler has a head coach that appears to be a wizard in the passing game, and he has arguably the best duo of receivers in the league. He’ll be a QB1 this season, but he isn’t being valued as one.
Johnny Manziel, ROOKIE - I don’t care if you think Manziel will be a failure as a starting quarterback. Along the way, he is going to put up some scorching fantasy numbers. He has the most fantasy friendly skillset you could imagine in a quarterback - he loves to throw deep, and he’s not afraid to run to hurt the opposition. He should be available in the second round of rookie drafts with a deep RB/WR group in the draft and the vast majority of teams not needing help at quarterback in fantasy leagues.
DIME STORE BIN
Jake Locker, TEN - Locker appears to be an injury-prone quarterback at this point in his career, but his injuries last year were of the freak variety more than anything Locker did to lower his chances of staying healthy. He was mid-breakout when he was struck by an odd hip injury, and he has an offensive guru in Ken Whisenhunt as his head coach now. If it comes together around Locker and he can secure an extension, his legs and likely QB-centric offensive system will benefit his fantasy bottom line. Check and see if his owner is “over” him.
Geno Smith, NYJ - While everyone else stopped paying attention to the Jets, Smith closed out the season with three QB1 level games in the last four contests, which were all Jets wins. The one loss and dud was against the elite Carolina defense. The quality of his passing and decision-making leveled off in December, and he’ll have every chance to seize their starting quarterback job for good in 2014. He has been a much more active runner in the pros than he was in college, so his fantasy potential is being underestimated.
Terrelle Pryor, OAK - Pryor is likely to get traded and for cheap, which will help him doubly. He’ll get out of an Oakland organization that doesn’t believe in him, and get into an organization that is at least open to the possibility of him being a viable NFL quarterback. He could easily end up in an ideal offense for his elite athletic ability like Philadelphia or Buffalo. As a running quarterback, the bar for passing effectiveness is very low for Pryor to have fantasy relevance. He is only 24 and there was a stretch last year when it appeared Pryor was “getting it”. As long as rosters aren’t extremely shallow, he’s easily worth a spot.
Michael Vick, FA - There’s a decent chance Vick will be signed to start, and we’re all well aware of how his game translates to fantasy production. Even if he’s just an emergency quarterback for your fantasy team, he has rosterable value in most leagues.
Josh Freeman, FA - Freeman is only 26 and it was just a few years ago that he was a fantasy QB1 with a long, bright future stretching ahead of him. The possibility of reuniting with the QB coach that oversaw his best seasons in Tampa Bay - Oakland offensive coordinator Greg Olson - is enough to stash Freeman away in deep leagues and see what happens in free agency.
Brian Hoyer, CLE - Hoyer is still under contract, and if Cleveland passes on quarterback at #4, he’s likely to be their starting quarterback. Everyone forgets that Hoyer was projecting as at least a fantasy spot starter, if not a borderline QB1 because of his connection with Josh Gordon. If Cleveland does take a quarterback in the first, Hoyer could easily get traded to another QB-needy team that doesn’t take one in the first.
Sell High
Everyone - I am big fan of “unspooling” the value at quarterback on your roster and investing it elsewhere this offseason. Quarterbacks are becoming increasingly interchangeable in fantasy leagues, and it is the position I would be most eager to mortgage and have to bottom feed to find production in the name upgrading elsehwere. Quarterbacks will be discounted in your rookie drafts, and viable fantasy plays outside of the top 12-15 will be cheap in trades. Don’t be afraid to trade Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson in a blockbuster if someone comes calling.
Cam Newton, CAR - Looking at Newton’s year-end numbers paints a picture of a top five fantasy quarterback. The reality was a rollercoaster ride that also had the potential to put you in the bottom half of the quarterback rankings in any given week. His cupboard is bare at wide receiver, and the Panthers won’t be able to make drastic instant upgrades in this free agent market. Newton could still arrive in the top five as a consistent fantasy force in the future, but his short-term trade value is at a peak.
Nick Foles, PHI - Foles might actually be a buy low if his owner has him on the bench behind a top 6-8 fantasy quarterback. It is certainly possible that things click even more in year two of the Chip Kelly system. It is also possible that Foles comes back to earth. He missed plenty of throws despite his gaudy passer rating, and generally did not play as well as his numbers indicate. For the long haul, Kelly may still attempt to acquire a quarterback with much better running ability and a degree less passing ability to extract more of the value in his offensive scheme. If someone wants to deal you valuable players or picks for Foles, the smart gamble is probably to take them.
Andy Dalton, CIN - Pray that someone sees the top five year-end ranking for Dalton and tries to give you a second-round pick or coveted prospect for him. The new offense under Hue Jackson is going to likely take some off of Dalton’s plate and emphasize more power running. His QB1 appearances are probably a blip that will soon be forgotten.
Ryan Tannehill, MIA - Tannehill is danger of entering David Carr syndrome range if he absorbs 50+ sacks again this year. His offensive line needs to be rebuilt, his organization appears to be dysfunctional, and Tannehill can’t seem to dial in the deep ball to harness his #1 receiver, Mike Wallace. He is young enough and still on the upslope of his career to attract attention as a trade target in dynasty leagues, so consider letting him go for a 2nd in this deep class. That could easily turn into a straight up trade for Manziel.