Buy Low
Drew Brees, QB, NO - Brees has Pittsburgh, Carolina, Chicago, and Atlanta in Weeks 13-16. He is also at home for five of the next seven games. If you are targeting a quarterback in a trade to give you an edge down the stretch, Brees has the best combination of upside and a price that shouldn’t be quite as steep as Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, or Andrew Luck.
Mark Ingram, RB, NO - Ingram has had two outstanding fantasy games in a row, so it might seem odd to list him as a “buy low”, but folks are afraid of the Saints backfield once Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson are healthy. Know that Ingram had three scores in the two games he played with a healthy Robinson and Thomas before breaking his hand, and see above, the Saints should give him lots of scoring opportunities down the stretch. If you need an RB2 upgrade, make a play for Ingram. He could also have even more value elsewhere next year in dynasty leagues.
Devonta Freeman, RB, ATL - While everyone is flocking to Charles Sims on the waiver wire, Freeman also represents potential second half value in the form of a rookie running back that a team will give more work as they look to the future. Freeman has at least given us desperation play value with his handful of touches a week, but coming out of their Week 9 bye, the Falcons could re-prioritize his level of work in the backfield going forward.
Alfred Morris, RB, WAS - Morris’s owners have had about as rocky a ride as the Washington offense, with no 100-yard games this year, no 20+ carry games in their last five contests, and game scripts that just aren’t conducive to a powerful, rhythm runner. The return of Robert Griffin III and a bye week to reset the offense should help Morris have more impact for his fantasy teams down the stretch.
Josh Gordon, WR, CLE - Gordon’s return is still three weeks away, with 16 teams on bye in between now and then. A team that is 3-5 or 4-4 might have trouble justifying holding Gordon when their lineup is decimated by byes and they can’t afford to lose. Gordon could be a shadow of his 2013 self, but if he is anywhere near as effective and targeted, he’ll help teams win championships. If you wait any longer to target him in redraft trade offers, the window is likely to close.
Michael Floyd, WR, ARI - A goose egg stings and leaves a mark, but Floyd is too talented and the Arizona offense is too well-suited to his strengths to expect him to stay down in the second half of the season. He is probably still untouchable in dynasty leagues, but redraft league owners are not impressed and might deal him out of spite right now.
Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA - Let the shadow cast on Lynch of the team being “tired of his antics” allow you to swoop in and get a strong lead back on a team that should control and win a lot more games in the second half of the season than they did in the first. The Seahawks play three of their next four games at home, where Lynch has four touchdowns in three games this year. He’ll be fine, and so will fantasy teams relying on him.
Sell High
Charles Sims, RB, TB - Don’t sell Sims just because, but this very poor man’s version of Matt Forte probably won’t have much more success than Bobby Rainey or Doug Martin did in redraft leagues, and he has the glow of the “young RB about to break out” in dynasty leagues that could fetch a low 1st or 2nd+ in return, which can be used on a much more talented back in next year’s stocked class.
Ronnie Hillman, RB, DEN - Hillman could hold onto the full job when Montee Ball returns, and he could even have value into 2015, but it feels like his value has peaked in redraft leagues. He’s a little banged up, the fumble monster is still under the bed, and Ball will return eventually to take some part of Hillman’s workload, if not more than we expect because John Fox. If you aren’t relying on Hillman as your RB2, it is a good time to cash him in.
Brandon LaFell, WR, NE - LaFell might be a tough sell high because his numbers lately still look like an optical illusion. He has never been this consistent or heavily involved in an offense, and the ever-changing nature of the Patriots offense probably means that he’ll yield to Julian Edelman and Tim Wright as secondary options to Rob Gronkowski at times. This could be a great week to deal him in redraft leagues with six teams and a massive chunk of the WR1/WR2 tiers on bye.
Reggie Bush, RB, DET - The air might be completely out of the Bush balloon in fantasy leagues of all types, but his name might still carry enough shine to wring one last drop of fantasy value out of him. Bush should share the receiving back role with Theo Riddick after the bye, and honestly, Riddick has looked at least as good as Bush, if not better this year.
Michael Crabtree, WR, SF - Crabtree might be a tough sell in redraft leagues, but in dynasty leagues, he remains a resident of the sell high column. The hopes that he lands in a true WR1 role next year could fuel a team that is looking towards the future to give up a lot that can help you win now in a push for a title. Crabtree doesn’t look like more than a solid #2 wide receiver right now, and he might not get the deal or role he is looking for in free agency with lots of baggage and injuries on his record.
