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Buy Low
Torrey Smith, WR, BAL - Smith has drawn seven pass interference penalties, and he and Joe Flacco and continuing to dial in their deep ball connection. It appears that there was no reason to think this 25-year-old would suddenly experience a steep drop in effectiveness and talent. He’ll at least be a high ceiling WR3/Flex going forward.
Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI, Michael Floyd, WR, ARI, Carson Palmer, QB, ARI - The Cardinals passing game feels like a sleeping giant about to awake against the Eagles subpar pass defense this week. Floyd has a skillset to match the elite fantasy receivers, and his game is starting to come around to match. Fitzgerald hasn’t fallen off as much as his stats suggest, and Palmer is back to 100% arm strength, and he has a speedster in the slot in John Brown give defenses even more to think about (not to mention a credible running game in the form of Andre Ellington). The numbers should start to heat up in the desert soon.
Jordan Cameron, TE, CLE - Cameron’s talent is still almost unmatched at the tight end position, however now he has been saddled with a fading quarterback (Brian Hoyer) and a once might offensive line that has had its head cut off when Alex Mack when down. The offensive line should start to at least heal and mend more effectively than it did against Sen’Derrick Marks and Jacksonville soon enough, and Josh Gordon will be back in Week 12 to give safeties something else to think about. Johnny Manziel watch should start soon, and if the coaches see fit to turn to him, it will be an improvement unless Manziel bombs.
Percy Harvin, WR, NYJ - Harvin’s value has reached new lows in redraft and dynasty, but the next chapter in this story is more likely to go like Randy Moss than Santonio Holmes. Harvin is only 26, he has been healthy this year, and his pure playmaking ability has flashed more than once this year, even if most of the plays didn’t count. His low compensation via trade had more to do with his attitude and high salary than a lack of football value, and this should be a wake up to this malcontent. The potential payoff is more than worth the price of the ticket to take the ride now.
Matt Ryan, QB, ATL - Ryan’s second half schedule should help, and the offensive line can’t get any worse. Unlike last year, he still has a healthy Julio Jones and Roddy White, and Ryan showed last year that he will keep swinging even when the season is lost. If Ryan has been on his owner’s bench, he could come surprisingly cheap in dynasty and redraft alike.
Greg Jennings, WR, MIN - Jennings can still run routes and secure the ball in the air with the best of them, he just hasn’t had much of a chance with Teddy Bridgewater facing some tough defenses lately. The schedule will let up a bit, and Bridgewater should continue to learn on the job, likely in part due to the efforts of a steady vet like Jennings. He should level off as a solid WR3/Flex in the second half of the season, and you can probably get him very cheap in dynasty leagues.
Jonas Gray, RB, NE - Bill Belichick sort of tipped his hand when he had Gray ahead of Brandon Bolden last week and gave him a handful of carries. The gameplan against the Jets was not going to lean on the power running game, but Gray appears to be well cast to head it up when the game plan does call for the hammer, perhaps even this week against the Bears. Gray ran with a good burst for a big back and Belichick appeared to be pleased with his contribution. The predictably unpredictable next move is for him to get a LeGarette Blount-esque second half workload.
Sell High
Bryce Brown, RB, BUF - He’s already been confirmed to be behind Anthony Dixon with regards to first-team reps with Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller both out. Jackson should be back in 4-6 weeks, and Brown gets the Jets and a bye in the next two weeks. While he has a terrific set of physical tools, Brown has big holes in his game, too. This could be the last chance to get “young RB on the rise” value for him in dynasty leagues, and he’s unlikely to matter in redraft leagues.
Denard Robinson, RB, JAX - It was nice to see the Jags break through against the Browns, but chalk it up more to the Browns playing down than Jacksonville playing up. The running game got on track because the Browns defensive line is decimated. I’m still not buying Robinson as a long-term productive back for dynasty, or a contributor with any reliability in redraft.
Golden Tate, WR, DET - Tate has been money while Calvin Johnson has been out, but it is likely that he settles back into WR2/WR3 range when Johnson returns. If that puts him as your WR3 or lower and you can cash him in for near WR1 value in redraft leagues, you should explore. It seems simple-minded, but some might pay top 10 for Tate simply because he is the top 10. The Lions could also become a more conservative team on offense now that they have a top notch defense to lead the way. Tate is red hot and he has a great matchup this week, which could make it easier to get that WR1 premium for him.
Michael Crabtree, WR, SF - Crabtree continues to be a sell high on name in dynasty (and maybe redraft) despite numbers that put him on the fringe of startability even in deep leagues, and no sign that it will change with the 49ers fielded five viable pass catches coming out of their bye next week. Crabtree has the glow of a young receiver who can be a perennial WR1 and the cornerstone of dynasty teams, but he could have a chilly reception the free agent market next year, or end up getting paid, but in a bad situation. There’s lots of uncertainty ahead of Crabtree, and what is clear now is not exactly exciting for his owners.
Doug Martin, RB, TB - Martin is another player who remains a sell high despite a disappointing season because of his name value. Rookie Charles Sims could be activated next week and if Martin is not cutting it, this regime is invested in Sims, not Martin. He could be at or below Trent Richardson/Zac Stacy value in the blink of an eye, so you were warned.